--- title: "Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15" canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-early-vote-edge-2-to-15/" author: "Research team" publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research" published: "2026-10-23" topic: "Early vote" license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)" --- # Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15 Early voters so far are D 49, R 34, Other 17. At this point in 2024 they were D 42, R 40, Other 18. Research team · Oct 23, 2026 **Key number: D+15** early voters by party, Oct 23, 2026 (2024 at this point D+2) **Early voters are D+15 this year. At the same point in 2024 they were D+2.** | Party | 2026 | 2024, same point | | --- | --- | --- | | Democrats | 49 | 42 | | Republicans | 34 | 40 | | Other | 17 | 18 | Source: NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026; 2024 at the same point (Oct 25, 2024). Caveat: TargetSmart models party in 21 states, and party is not vote choice. Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020. Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-early-mix.csv Of the 21.7 million Americans who had voted early by Oct 23, 2026, 49% were Democrats, 34% Republicans and 17% neither, according to the NBC News early-vote tracker, which uses TargetSmart data. At the same point in 2024, early voters were 42% Democratic, 40% Republican and 18% Other. The Democratic lead among early voters grew from 2 points to 15. ## What it means Democrats make up a larger share of the early electorate than they did two years ago, and Republicans a smaller one. The Other share is almost unchanged, so the shift is between the two parties: Democrats up 7 points, Republicans down 6. Part of the shift rests on firm ground. In 29 states and DC, which hold 52% of early votes, NBC does not mark party as modelled. In the registration states we could check, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, the tracker matched official records within about one point in both 2022 and 2024. It is also a sign of who is motivated to vote early this year. A 15-point Democratic edge means Democratic voters are banking their ballots at a higher rate than Republican voters, at least so far. ## What it doesn’t mean Registered party is not vote choice. Some registered Democrats vote Republican and some registered Republicans vote Democratic, and the 17% Other group splits both ways. The tracker counts party labels, not votes. The 2024 comparison flatters the shift. Since 2020, Democrats have voted early in larger numbers than Republicans, and 2024 was a presidential year with a different electorate. Comparing a midterm early vote with a presidential one mixes the change in mood with the change in who turns out. The better yardstick is 2022, the last midterm. At the same point in 2022 the tracker read D 47, R 35, Other 18: a 12-point Democratic edge. Republicans still won the 2022 national House vote by 2.7 points. So a double-digit Democratic lead among early voters is normal for a midterm and, on its own, says little about the result. The 2026 edge is 3 points wider than 2022’s, not 13. Part of the party column is a model. In 21 states, which hold 48% of this year’s early votes, the tracker’s party is estimated by TargetSmart rather than taken from a state record. In Texas, the state’s own records through Oct 21 give D+3.4, while the tracker moved from D+7 on Oct 22 to R+1 on Oct 23. In Ohio they agree on the margin (D+5.9 against D+6) but not on how many voters are independents. ## How we checked We read the national party split from the NBC News tracker on Oct 23, 2026, and from archived copies of the 2024 and 2022 trackers at the same point before Election Day: Oct 25, 2024 and Oct 28, 2022. NBC publishes the split as whole percentages, so each figure is precise to about half a point. We compared the tracker with official files in the states that record party. In Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, the tracker’s 2022 and 2024 splits matched the state files within about one point. For the 21 modelled states we have no national check; in Ohio and Texas we built our own figures from state primary records, described in separate posts. The margins here are Democratic share minus Republican share, in points. A 15-point edge is 49 minus 34. ## Caveat Party is not vote choice, Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020, and TargetSmart models party in 21 states. ## Sources NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026, and its 2024 and 2022 editions at the same point. - [NBC News early-vote tracker, 2026](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/early-vote) - [NBC News early-vote tracker, 2024 (archived copy)](https://web.archive.org/web/20241105060757/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote) - [NBC News early-vote tracker, 2022 (archived copy)](https://web.archive.org/web/20221107172359/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/early-vote) ## Cite this Research team. “Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15.” Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research, Oct 23, 2026. https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-early-vote-edge-2-to-15/ Free to use with credit under CC BY 4.0. 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