---
title: "Early in-person voting moved toward Democrats in four states"
canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/early-in-person-voting-moves-toward-democrats/"
author: "Research desk"
publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research"
published: "2026-10-28"
topic: "Early vote"
license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)"
---


# Early in-person voting moved toward Democrats in four states

In Florida, Kansas, Iowa and North Carolina, voters at early-voting sites lean further toward Democrats than in 2022. Many Democrats who once voted by mail now vote in person.

Research desk · Oct 28, 2026

**Key number: R+7.1** Registered-party margin among Florida early in-person voters, 9 days before Election Day (R+23.7 in 2022)

**Early in-person voters moved toward Democrats in all four states.**

| State | 2022 | 2026 | Days before Election Day |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Florida | R+23.7 | R+7.1 | 9 |
| Kansas | R+14.9 | D+0.4 | 8 |
| Iowa | D+5.4 | D+18.3 | 11 |
| North Carolina | D+5.7 | D+16.8 | 11 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Registered party, not vote choice. Each state is compared at the same number of days before Election Day in both years.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-inperson-margin.csv

Registered Republicans led Florida’s early in-person voters by R+23.7 at this stage in 2022. This year their lead is R+7.1. In Kansas, the in-person early vote has gone from R+14.9 to D+0.4.

The same movement shows up in Iowa and North Carolina, the other two states where we can separate mail and in-person early ballots by registered party.

## Florida Democrats changed how they vote early

Florida voters’ mail-ballot requests expired at the start of 2025, under a state law that requires voters to renew them after each federal general election cycle. Registered Democrats have since moved toward early-voting sites. They cast about 500,000 in-person early ballots by this point, up from about 255,000 in 2022. Their mail ballots fell from about 816,000 to about 603,000.

**Florida Democrats moved from mailboxes to early-voting sites.**

| Method | 2022 | 2026 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| By mail | 815765 | 602971 |
| In person | 254948 | 500176 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Registered Democrats only. Same day in both years.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-inperson-fl-democrats.csv

## Mail’s shrinking share

Mail ballots make up a smaller share of the early vote in all four states. In Florida, the share fell from 69% to 51%; in Iowa, from 58% to 35%.

**Mail’s share of the early vote fell in every state.**

| State | 2022 (%) | 2026 (%) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Florida | 68.9 | 50.5 |
| Kansas | 36.8 | 21.5 |
| Iowa | 57.6 | 35.1 |
| North Carolina | 6.4 | 3.1 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Early ballots are returned mail ballots plus early in-person votes.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-inperson-mail-share.csv

## The overall early vote

Counting mail and in-person ballots together, early voters moved toward Democrats in Florida, Kansas and North Carolina. Iowa moved the other way, from D+23.3 to D+17.5, as Democrats’ lead among the state’s mail voters shrank sharply.

These counts include only ballots cast before Election Day.

**Counting mail and in-person ballots together, the shift is smaller and Iowa moved the other way.**

| State | 2022 | 2026 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Florida | R+3.6 | D+0.2 |
| Kansas | R+4.2 | D+3.7 |
| Iowa | D+23.3 | D+17.5 |
| North Carolina | D+7.0 | D+17.0 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Registered party, not vote choice. Mail and in-person early ballots combined.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-inperson-overall.csv

## Sources

Early-vote analysis by Carmena’s Overton. Florida’s mail-ballot request rules were reported by Spectrum News 13.

- [Spectrum News 13, Former vote-by-mail requests in Florida have expired (Jan 1, 2025)](https://mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2025/01/01/former-vote-by-mail-requests-in-florida-have-expired)

## Cite this

Research desk. “Early in-person voting moved toward Democrats in four states.” Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research, Oct 28, 2026. https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/early-in-person-voting-moves-toward-democrats/

Free to use with credit under CC BY 4.0. HTML version: https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/early-in-person-voting-moves-toward-democrats/