---
title: "Research"
canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/"
publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research"
license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)"
---


# Research

All 15 posts, newest first. Post dates other than Oct 23, 2026 are illustrative.

- [Nearly half of the ‘party’ in early-vote trackers is a model](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/party-in-early-vote-trackers-is-a-model/): In 21 states, NBC’s party split is modelled by TargetSmart. Those states hold 48% of this year’s early votes.
- [Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9 points, ahead of 2018’s wave](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-lead-generic-ballot-by-9-points/): The Silver Bulletin average is D+9.0 at 11 days out. At the same point, 2018 stood at D+8.2 and 2022 at R+0.6.
- [Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-early-vote-edge-2-to-15/): Early voters so far are D 49, R 34, Other 17. At this point in 2024 they were D 42, R 40, Other 18.
- [One in five of 2022’s voters have already voted](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/one-in-five-2022-voters-already-voted/): 21.7M early ballots equal 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout. At the same point in 2024 the figure was 22.7%.
- [Senate battlegrounds are voting early at 50–98% of their 2024 pace](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/battlegrounds-early-vote-50-98-percent-of-2024-pace/): None of the ten states is ahead of 2024, a presidential year. Against 2022, the last midterm, nine of the ten are ahead.
- [Texas Democrats are bringing new voters; Republicans are bringing regulars](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/texas-democrats-new-voters-republicans-regulars/): 8% of Democratic early voters in Texas are new, against 4% of Republicans. 84% of Republicans voted in both 2022 and 2024.
- [Texas early voters: D+3 on the state’s own records, R+1 in the tracker](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/texas-early-voters-d3-state-records/): Joining state early-vote rosters to 2026 primary rosters gives D 34.7, R 31.3, Other 34.0 across 2.16M early voters.
- [In Ohio, every source agrees on the margin and disagrees on independents](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/ohio-sources-agree-on-margin-not-independents/): The state file says D+5.9 with 39.4% Other. The tracker says D+6 with 8% Other.
- [North Carolina’s unaffiliated primary voters lean Democratic, 61–39](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/north-carolina-unaffiliated-primary-voters-61-39/): Of unaffiliated early voters with a primary history, 160K last took a Democratic ballot and 102K a Republican one.
- [Your last primary is a good guess at your party, until it isn’t](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/last-primary-as-party-guess/): Tested on 1,096,068 North Carolina early voters, the last-primary shortcut gets the margin right and the Other share badly wrong.
- [Unaffiliated voters don’t split the same way twice](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/unaffiliated-voters-dont-split-the-same-way-twice/): In North Carolina in 2024, unaffiliated voters were about 47% Democratic for President and about 77% for Governor.
- [County maps undercount Democratic early voters by about 16 points](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/county-maps-undercount-democratic-early-voters/): Weighting each county’s early votes by its 2024 result understated the Democratic margin by 7 to 41 points in 8 states with known party.
- [Only four places hand out voter files for free](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/four-places-free-voter-files/): North Carolina, Ohio, Clark County NV and some Texas counties. Elsewhere you pay, file a form, open an account or prove who you are.
- [New voters pulled counties toward Biden in 2020, and did nothing in 2024](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/new-voters-2020-swing-not-2024/): County shares of new voters tracked the presidential swing at 0.42 in North Carolina and 0.50 in Ohio in 2020. In 2024 the link was about zero.
- [Bellwether counties barely exist in midterms](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/bellwether-counties-barely-exist-in-midterms/): Only 13–16% of counties moved with the nation, within 4 points, in most House midterms. A perfect record adds 0–4 points of edge.