---
title: "Kansas early voters went from R+3 in 2022 to D+5 this year"
canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/kansas-early-voters-r3-to-d5/"
author: "Research desk"
publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research"
published: "2026-10-27"
topic: "Early vote"
license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)"
---


# Kansas early voters went from R+3 in 2022 to D+5 this year

Republicans led at this stage in 2022 and 2024. This year, registered Democrats are ahead by D+5.2, with Johnson County supplying nearly half the early ballots.

Research desk · Oct 27, 2026

**Key number: D+5.2** Registered-party margin among tracked Kansas early voters, eight days before Election Day

**Registered Democrats lead by 5.2 points. Republicans led in 2022 and 2024.**

| Election | Early votes, eight days out | Democrats | Republicans | Unaffiliated and other | Margin | Date |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2022 | 135670 | 57281 | 61937 | 16452 | R+3.4 | Oct 31, 2022 |
| 2024 | 301864 | 103852 | 148316 | 49696 | R+14.7 | Oct 28, 2024 |
| 2026 | 203818 | 89923 | 79331 | 34564 | D+5.2 | Oct 26, 2026 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Registered party, not vote choice. Eight days out in each year.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-early-total.csv

Registered Democrats have cast more early ballots than registered Republicans in Kansas. Eight days before Election Day, they lead by D+5.2.

Republicans were ahead at the same point in both 2022 and 2024. In the last midterm, their lead was about R+3.

Johnson County, where Democrats have overtaken Republicans among early voters, accounts for much of the statewide change.

## A close Senate race

Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee for Senate, needs Republican votes to win, and he says so.

“I’ll only get elected with Republicans voting for me,” the pastor told ABC News this month.

## Johnson and Sedgwick

Johnson County, Kansas City’s suburbs on the Kansas side of the state line, casts about a quarter of the state’s ballots. Its residents vote early more than most Kansans, so it has supplied about 45% of this year’s early count. The Democrats’ nominees for Senate and governor are both based there. Hamilton founded the Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, and Cindy Holscher, the nominee for governor, represents Overland Park in the state Senate.

At this stage of the last midterm, Johnson’s early voters leaned Republican by about R+3 points. This year they lean Democratic by about D+10.

Sedgwick, the second-largest county, is moving slightly the other way. Its early voters, around Wichita, lean Democratic by about D+6, down from D+8 at this stage in 2022. Sedgwick cast about one in six ballots in 2024 but has supplied only about 11% of this year’s early ones, so its shift counts for less in the early tally than it may in the final count.

Elsewhere the movement runs toward Democrats. Riley, home to Kansas State University, has gone from a Republican early-voter lead to a Democratic one, and across the remaining covered counties the Republican lead has narrowed to R+2.5.

**Compared with the same point in 2022, Johnson’s early voters have gone from a Republican lead to a Democratic one.**

| County | 2026 margin | 2022 margin | 2026 early votes | 2026 registered Democrats | 2026 registered Republicans | 2026 unaffiliated and other | 2022 early votes | 2024 margin | 2024 early votes | 2022 share of statewide early ballots | 2024 share of statewide early ballots | 2026 share of statewide early ballots | County final ballots, 2024 | Statewide final ballots, 2024 | County share of final ballots, 2024 | Covered statewide early ballots, 2026 | Johnson and Sedgwick final ballots, 2024 | Johnson and Sedgwick share of final ballots, 2024 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Johnson | D+10.1 | R+3.2 | 92721 | 42951 | 33598 | 16172 | 56029 | R+7.9 | 121897 | 41.3% | 40.4% | 45.5% | 348594 | 1343020 | 25.955979806704292% | 203818 | 565215 | 42.08537475242364% |
| Sedgwick | D+5.9 | D+8.3 | 22469 | 9763 | 8430 | 4276 | 14136 | R+13.8 | 35817 | 10.4% | 11.9% | 11% | 216621 | 1343020 | – | 203818 | – | – |
| Shawnee | D+12.7 | D+9.8 | 10827 | 5149 | 3773 | 1905 | 8042 | R+5.6 | 16560 | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 82702 | 1343020 | – | 203818 | – | – |
| Riley | D+9.3 | R+2.5 | 4261 | 1920 | 1525 | 816 | 2720 | R+5.4 | 6517 | 2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 24670 | 1343020 | – | 203818 | – | – |
| Rest of Kansas | R+2.5 | R+8.6 | 73540 | 30140 | 32005 | 11395 | 54435 | – | – | – | – | 36.08120970669911% | – | – | – | 203818 | – | – |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Registered party, eight days out. Rest of Kansas combines the other 98 counties. Bar colors mark counties, not parties.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-county-shift.csv

## Reliable voters

Most of this year’s early voters have voted many times before. About three in four cast ballots in each of the last four general elections. At this point in 2022, those reliable voters leaned Republican, at R+9.6. This year they lean Democratic, at D+2.9.

Early voters with no recorded vote in any of the last four general elections lean much further toward Democrats, at D+24.9. They make up about 3% of the early count, so they add little to the statewide lead.

**Early voters who cast ballots in all four recent general elections went from R+9.6 to D+2.9. Voters with no recent record are about 3% of the early count.**

| Voted in previous four generals | 2026 margin | 2022 margin | 2026 share of early ballots | 2022 share of early ballots | 2026 early ballots | 2022 early ballots | 2026 registered Democrats | 2026 registered Republicans | 2026 other | 2022 registered Democrats | 2022 registered Republicans | 2022 other |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| All four | D+2.9 | R+9.6 | 73.8 | 66.0 | 148811 | 88941 | 67753 | 63447 | 17611 | 36396 | 44909 | 7636 |
| Three of four | D+5.5 | D+3.5 | 12.5 | 15.6 | 25190 | 21000 | 10549 | 9161 | 5480 | 9389 | 8663 | 2948 |
| Two of four | D+13.6 | D+10.8 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 11467 | 9866 | 4826 | 3270 | 3371 | 4620 | 3551 | 1695 |
| One of four | D+17.6 | D+13.2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 9480 | 9831 | 3919 | 2249 | 3312 | 4520 | 3222 | 2089 |
| None of the last four | D+24.9 | D+15.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 6783 | 5131 | 2956 | 1268 | 2559 | 2329 | 1530 | 1272 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Groups count how many of the last four general elections each voter cast a ballot in. “None” is not the same as first-time.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-voter-history.csv

## Roger Marshall and rural Kansas

“What I see across the state is Republicans coming home,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R), whom Hamilton is challenging, told ABC News.

In fully rural counties, early voters lean about as Republican as they did four years ago. Their participation has been slower than in the cities and suburbs: about 6% of registered voters have voted early, against about 13% in urban and suburban counties.

**Rural early voters remain heavily Republican. Urban and suburban voters are arriving faster.**

| County type | 2026 turnout so far | 2022 turnout at this point | 2026 margin | 2022 margin | Counties | 2026 early votes | 2022 early votes | 2022 registered voters | 2026 registered voters |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Urban and suburban | 13.3% | 8.9% | D+12.1 | D+3.8 | 11 | 166873 | 106538 | 1191728 | 1257709 |
| Mostly rural | 6.2% | 5% | R+19.4 | R+26.9 | 23 | 14987 | 11637 | 232733 | 242803 |
| Fully rural | 5.8% | 4.6% | R+30.6 | R+31.7 | 68 | 21958 | 17187 | 372146 | 380096 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark, county types via L2. Caveat: County type by rural share: under 50% urban/suburban, 50–99% mostly rural, 100% fully rural.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-urban-rural.csv

Around Wichita, Sedgwick voters have made different choices across the same ballot. They helped reelect Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly and Republican Sen. Jerry Moran in 2022. Together, Johnson and Sedgwick supplied more than two in five of Kansas’s ballots in the last presidential election. Candidates seeking support across party lines have a substantial share of the statewide electorate to contest in those counties.

## The remaining vote

Most Kansans have yet to vote. In the last midterm, about 4 in 10 ballots were cast early, by mail or in person; the rest came on Election Day. The early share has been higher in presidential years, reaching about half in 2024.

This year, Kansans had cast about half again as many early ballots by eight days out as at the same point in 2022. If total turnout ends near 2022’s, early voters will make up a larger share of the final count than they did then.

**About 4 in 10 Kansas midterm ballots are cast early. This year’s early count is well ahead of 2022’s.**

| Year | Election | Early share of all ballots | Early ballots, final | In-person advance | Mail ballots returned | All ballots | Early ballots, eight days out |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2016 | Presidential | 41.2% | 505464 | 332007 | 173457 | 1225667 | – |
| 2018 | Midterm | 38.7% | 401731 | 249464 | 152267 | 1039085 | – |
| 2020 | Presidential | 60.4% | 831083 | 371854 | 459229 | 1375125 | – |
| 2022 | Midterm | 40.3% | 410720 | 274516 | 136204 | 1020208 | 135670 |
| 2024 | Presidential | 53% | 711289 | 558621 | 152668 | 1343020 | 301864 |
| 2026 | Midterm | – | – | – | – | – | 203818 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; 2022–24 early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Early means by mail or in person before Election Day. No 2026 share until the count is final.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-early-share.csv

Democrats have gained most in the cities and suburbs, where both their statewide nominees are based.

The Democratic lead has already shrunk from about D+15 two weeks before Election Day to about D+5 now. Republicans gained late in 2022, as more people voted in person.

**A repeat of 2022’s late shift would still leave a less Republican early electorate.**

| Days before Election Day | 2026 margin | 2022 margin | 2024 margin | 2026 early votes | 2022 early votes | 2024 early votes | Hypothetical 2026 early margin if the remaining 2022 shift repeats | 2022 registration-margin change from eight days out to day zero |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 14 | D+15.3 | R+6.2 | R+10.5 | 55321 | 27226 | 64405 | – | – |
| 13 | D+11.3 | R+6.8 | R+11.6 | 90993 | 48642 | 116397 | – | – |
| 12 | D+8.4 | R+4.6 | R+12.9 | 122041 | 73310 | 166102 | – | – |
| 11 | D+6.3 | R+2.6 | R+12.9 | 153737 | 92478 | 166102 | – | – |
| 10 | D+6.3 | R+2.6 | R+12.9 | 153737 | 92478 | 166102 | – | – |
| 9 | D+6.3 | R+2.6 | R+12.9 | 153737 | 92478 | 166102 | – | – |
| 8 | D+5.2 | R+3.4 | R+14.7 | 203818 | 135670 | 301864 | – | – |
| 7 | – | R+3.6 | R+14.6 | – | 167488 | 339992 | – | – |
| 6 | – | R+6.1 | R+15.3 | – | 205717 | 391768 | – | – |
| 5 | – | R+8 | R+16.7 | – | 244731 | 453168 | – | – |
| 4 | – | R+9.4 | R+17.7 | – | 282475 | 516864 | – | – |
| 3 | – | R+10.8 | R+18.3 | – | 324222 | 576697 | – | – |
| 2 | – | R+10.8 | R+18.3 | – | 324222 | 576697 | – | – |
| 1 | – | R+10.7 | R+18.1 | – | 352868 | 653157 | – | – |
| 0 | – | R+11.8 | R+18.5 | – | 387668 | 694959 | R+3.1 | −8.326400354186617 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Dotted line: this year’s margin plus 2022’s late shift. An illustration, not a forecast.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-early-margin.csv

A late swing as large as 2022’s would still leave this year’s early electorate far less Republican than in 2022 or 2024.

## Beyond the party label

Every count in this article is of registered parties, and Kansans do not always vote with theirs. In Johnson, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats among 2024 voters by R+10.4. Harris won the county by D+8.5.

**Republicans outnumbered Democrats among Johnson’s 2024 voters by about 10 points. Harris won the county by about 8.**

| Population or race | Measure | Democratic voters or candidate votes | Republican voters or candidate votes | Other voters or candidate votes | Denominator | D minus R margin |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Johnson: voters by registered party | Recorded 2024 voters, all voting methods; party as of April 2, 2025 | 116441 | 152273 | 76355 | 345069 | R+10.4 |
| Johnson: final presidential result | Certified 2024 presidential votes, all voting methods | 183451 | 154247 | 6082 | 343780 | D+8.5 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; 2024 turnout via Redistricting Data Hub / L2. Caveat: Party from an April 2025 voter file covering 99% of ballots. Individual crossover voters cannot be identified.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-party-vs-results.csv

Brent Smith, a Lenexa voter, described his own split ticket to the Kansas Reflector in 2024. The fiscally conservative independent said he had voted for Harris for president and Republicans for Congress and the Legislature. Hamilton is asking Republicans to split their tickets the other way in the Senate race.

## Sources

Early-vote, turnout and election-result analysis by Carmena’s Overton. Brent Smith’s account of his vote was reported by the Kansas Reflector; Hamilton’s and Marshall’s comments were reported by ABC News; Holscher’s background was reported by KCUR.

- [ABC News, Hamilton’s cross-party appeal and Marshall’s campaign (Oct 15, 2026)](https://abcnews.com/Politics/democratic-senate-candidate-adam-hamilton-fighting-rights-people/story?id=137171767)
- [KCUR, Kansas governor candidates and background (Oct 14, 2026)](https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-10-14/kansas-governor-race-2026-election-candidates-masterson-holscher)
- [Kansas Reflector, Brent Smith’s split ticket (Nov 5, 2024)](https://kansasreflector.com/2024/11/05/kansas-voters-swarm-polling-locations-with-presidential-contest-policy-issues-at-forefront/)
- [Hutch Post, republication of the Kansas Reflector voter interviews](https://hutchpost.com/posts/9f5d93f5-e7dc-44f0-9b89-a08e60e690c3)

## Cite this

Research desk. “Kansas early voters went from R+3 in 2022 to D+5 this year.” Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research, Oct 27, 2026. https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/kansas-early-voters-r3-to-d5/

Free to use with credit under CC BY 4.0. HTML version: https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/kansas-early-voters-r3-to-d5/