---
title: "Democrats are front-loading their reliable voters"
canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/reliable-democrats-are-voting-early/"
author: "Research desk"
publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research"
published: "2026-10-28"
topic: "Early vote"
license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)"
---


# Democrats are front-loading their reliable voters

Democrats are getting their regular voters to vote earlier. Their early numbers look better than in previous elections, but Republicans have a larger share of their dependable voters still to come.

Research desk · Oct 28, 2026

**Key number: 55% vs 34%** Share of North Carolina’s reliable Democrats and reliable Republicans who have voted early, eight days before Election Day

**Democrats have used more of their reliable-voter pool, and the gap has widened since 2022.**

| State | Party | 2022 (%) | 2026 (%) | 2026 early ballots | 2026 registered |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| North Carolina | Democrats | 40.1 | 54.6 | 472385 | 865724 |
| North Carolina | Republicans | 33.5 | 34.3 | 305645 | 891995 |
| Kansas | Democrats | 25.6 | 36.5 | 78089 | 214079 |
| Kansas | Republicans | 15.1 | 19.6 | 77433 | 395684 |
| Florida | Democrats | 42.8 | 47.7 | 843709 | 1770458 |
| Florida | Republicans | 38.9 | 35.0 | 882656 | 2524112 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Percent of each party’s registered four-time voters who voted early. Same days out in 2022 and 2026: NC 8, KS 7, FL 8.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-habit-party-rates.csv

Democrats are front-loading their reliable voters. In North Carolina, more than half have already voted. Only about a third of reliable Republicans have. Democrats have those ballots counted, but they have also used up more of the voters who usually show up.

“Reliable” means someone who voted in all four preceding general elections. Eight days before Election Day, North Carolina’s reliable Republicans are voting early at almost exactly their 2022 rate. Democrats are well ahead of theirs. Much of the Republican group is still waiting; most of the Democratic group has already voted.

Kansas Republicans are voting earlier too. Democrats have sped up more. In Florida, the parties are going in opposite directions: reliable Democrats are voting early at a higher rate than in the last midterm, reliable Republicans at a lower one.

## Democrats are ahead of where they were

North Carolina’s Democratic lead among early voters is more than twice what it was at this point in 2022. At the same point in 2024, Republicans were narrowly ahead.

Kansas had Republican early-voter leads in both previous elections. This year Democrats lead. Florida has gone from Republican leads to nearly even. These are mail and in-person ballots, compared at the same number of days before Election Day.

**Early voters lean further toward Democrats than at the same point in 2022 and 2024.**

| State | Year | Party margin | Days before Election Day | Matched counties | democrats | republicans | other |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| North Carolina | 2022 | D+7.3 | 8 | 100 | 490365 | 397931 | 374943 |
| North Carolina | 2024 | R+1.1 | 8 | 100 | 1034083 | 1067085 | 1028131 |
| North Carolina | 2026 | D+16.1 | 8 | 100 | 708130 | 425956 | 613362 |
| Kansas | 2022 | R+4.4 | 7 | 103 | 68112 | 75386 | 20211 |
| Kansas | 2024 | R+14.4 | 7 | 103 | 116618 | 165583 | 56717 |
| Kansas | 2026 | D+1.5 | 7 | 103 | 99664 | 96052 | 40681 |
| Florida | 2022 | R+4.6 | 8 | 67 | 1152344 | 1293013 | 587774 |
| Florida | 2024 | R+11.5 | 8 | 67 | 1716876 | 2305396 | 1088361 |
| Florida | 2026 | R+0.5 | 8 | 67 | 1236614 | 1252610 | 649839 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Same days before Election Day in every year: North Carolina and Florida 8; Kansas 7. Registered party, not candidate choice.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-habit-overall-margins.csv

Those are votes Democrats wanted to get, and they have them. The trouble comes when you assume the voters still to come will look like the ones who have already voted. Republicans have a larger share of their dependable voters left. They can make up ground by getting those people out.

Florida is a useful reminder that a turnout rate and a ballot count answer different questions. Democrats have used up more of their reliable voters as a share of their own party. Republicans still narrowly lead the overall count. You can turn out more of your voters, proportionally, and still cast fewer ballots.

## The Democrats arriving earlier are the ones who usually vote

In North Carolina, Democrats who voted in every recent general election have increased their early turnout the most. Democrats who skipped some elections are also voting earlier, but their increases are smaller.

**North Carolina’s most consistent Democrats have accelerated the most since 2022.**

| Voted in previous four generals | 2022 (%) | 2026 (%) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| All four | 40.1 | 54.6 |
| Three of four | 19.2 | 28.3 |
| Two of four | 11.0 | 16.0 |
| One of four | 8.4 | 11.6 |
| None of the last four | 6.9 | 10.2 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Early ballots divided by registered Democrats in each voting-history group, same day in both years.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-habit-nc-groups.csv

That gives Democrats a reason to be careful about reading the early numbers as a surge in final turnout. The biggest change in participation rate is among people with a long voting record. They are arriving earlier. We do not yet know how many more Democrats will vote by the time the election ends.

## Republicans have voters left. They need them to show up.

Getting a vote early has a practical benefit. That person cannot get busy on Election Day and forget to vote. Democrats can spend the remaining days reaching people who have not voted yet.

Republicans have more of their dependable electorate left to turn out, as a share of their party. A past vote is no guarantee of another one. And these records compare groups across elections; they cannot tell us which individual Democrats moved a vote from Election Day.

North Carolina’s Republicans are still waiting on most of their regular voters. Democrats have already heard from most of theirs. Republicans need those remaining voters to close the participation gap.

## Sources

Carmena’s Overton analysis of ColdSpark early-vote, registration and voting-history counts. Comparisons use the same days before Election Day: eight in North Carolina and Florida, seven in Kansas. Overall margins include 2022, 2024 and 2026; reliable-voter rates compare the two midterms. Kansas’s overall comparison covers 103 counties present in all three years. Voting-history groups change between elections and are not a panel of the same people. The source’s overall totals and history breakdowns do not reconcile exactly, preventing an exact attribution of the statewide shift. Party is voter registration, not candidate choice.



## Cite this

Research desk. “Democrats are front-loading their reliable voters.” Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research, Oct 28, 2026. https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/reliable-democrats-are-voting-early/

Free to use with credit under CC BY 4.0. HTML version: https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/reliable-democrats-are-voting-early/