---
title: "Unaffiliated early voting is up 70%. Here is the state-by-state picture."
canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/unaffiliated-early-voting-senate-battlegrounds/"
author: "Research desk"
publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research"
published: "2026-11-03"
topic: "Early vote"
license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)"
---


# Unaffiliated early voting is up 70%. Here is the state-by-state picture.

Unaffiliated voters account for the fastest early-vote growth across six Senate states. We break down the party numbers, consistent and occasional voters, and the differences from state to state.

Research desk · Nov 3, 2026

**Key number: +70%** Growth in tracked unaffiliated early ballots across Texas, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa, compared with the same stage in 2022

**Texas county early voting**

| County | 2022 ballots | 2026 ballots | 2022 occasional share (%) | 2026 occasional share (%) | Occasional-share change (points) | 2022 D minus R (points) | 2026 D minus R (points) | Party-gap change (points) | Unaffiliated-share change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Harris County | 743158 | 1063463 | 16.3 | 17.7 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 15.1 | 8.6 | 7.7 |
| Dallas County | 407485 | 616163 | 15.1 | 17.8 | 2.8 | 22.3 | 28.8 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Tarrant County | 406419 | 578270 | 16.3 | 16.4 | 0.1 | -11.4 | -0.3 | 11.0 | 5.6 |
| Bexar County | 384076 | 510382 | 18.5 | 17.8 | -0.7 | 12.1 | 16.7 | 4.7 | 5.9 |
| Travis County | 324355 | 434002 | 20.5 | 17.4 | -3.1 | 37.3 | 39.3 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Collin County | 262300 | 372561 | 18.8 | 16.5 | -2.3 | -19.4 | -10.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 |
| Denton County | 225136 | 319329 | 19.8 | 16.7 | -3.2 | -21.9 | -11.9 | 10.0 | 4.4 |
| Fort Bend County | 185377 | 270784 | 17.3 | 17.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 7.0 |
| Williamson County | 162041 | 228697 | 20.3 | 16.4 | -3.9 | -7.7 | 1.0 | 8.7 | 4.1 |
| Montgomery County | 139330 | 188661 | 17.8 | 15.7 | -2.2 | -50.4 | -37.9 | 12.5 | 4.2 |
| Hidalgo County | 103179 | 162444 | 21.6 | 25.3 | 3.7 | 51.2 | 36.1 | -15.1 | 9.5 |
| El Paso County | 102675 | 158122 | 17.8 | 18.9 | 1.1 | 42.7 | 37.7 | -5.0 | 8.1 |
| Brazoria County | 80707 | 115142 | 14.9 | 15.4 | 0.5 | -24.2 | -10.6 | 13.6 | 6.5 |
| Galveston County | 81846 | 109183 | 15.6 | 14.0 | -1.6 | -26.5 | -20.4 | 6.0 | 4.8 |
| Hays County | 64790 | 91018 | 23.1 | 20.0 | -3.1 | 2.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 2.8 |
| Bell County | 57389 | 82584 | 20.3 | 18.8 | -1.5 | -19.8 | -10.9 | 8.8 | 3.7 |
| Lubbock County | 58638 | 82187 | 16.9 | 17.6 | 0.7 | -45.4 | -32.9 | 12.4 | 5.6 |
| Cameron County | 54432 | 79213 | 21.7 | 22.5 | 0.8 | 39.4 | 28.2 | -11.1 | 7.0 |
| Nueces County | 61106 | 72987 | 16.6 | 14.3 | -2.2 | 4.0 | 0.6 | -3.4 | 3.6 |
| Comal County | 53151 | 69226 | 16.9 | 12.6 | -4.4 | -46.9 | -37.6 | 9.3 | 2.8 |
| Ellis County | 45101 | 68532 | 16.9 | 15.8 | -1.1 | -36.9 | -17.9 | 19.0 | 4.5 |
| Smith County | 51122 | 66393 | 14.8 | 14.0 | -0.8 | -51.5 | -39.2 | 12.3 | 3.7 |
| Jefferson County | 47329 | 59420 | 11.2 | 14.4 | 3.2 | 13.4 | 4.0 | -9.4 | 5.5 |
| McLennan County | 44800 | 58209 | 15.7 | 14.6 | -1.1 | -35.7 | -24.6 | 11.1 | 3.8 |
| Parker County | 42118 | 57449 | 17.4 | 13.2 | -4.2 | -62.8 | -57.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| Brazos County | 35732 | 54989 | 20.3 | 24.9 | 4.5 | -34.1 | -18.2 | 15.9 | 7.5 |
| Johnson County | 37229 | 53686 | 16.6 | 15.6 | -0.9 | -52.7 | -39.5 | 13.2 | 5.8 |
| Guadalupe County | 38719 | 51072 | 19.6 | 16.0 | -3.6 | -31.0 | -19.8 | 11.2 | 4.3 |
| Kaufman County | 26660 | 46438 | 19.1 | 20.4 | 1.3 | -35.9 | -13.7 | 22.2 | 7.9 |
| Webb County | 30668 | 45636 | 26.0 | 23.5 | -2.5 | 73.3 | 56.8 | -16.5 | 6.2 |
| Rockwall County | 29867 | 42729 | 18.3 | 14.9 | -3.4 | -44.4 | -35.8 | 8.5 | 3.6 |
| Randall County | 32406 | 41571 | 13.9 | 13.2 | -0.6 | -66.1 | -54.6 | 11.4 | 3.9 |
| Grayson County | 28932 | 40183 | 15.5 | 13.5 | -1.9 | -55.8 | -48.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 |
| Midland County | 26123 | 31755 | 15.4 | 14.2 | -1.2 | -62.2 | -50.6 | 11.6 | 5.5 |
| Taylor County | 26034 | 31143 | 15.6 | 13.1 | -2.5 | -55.7 | -47.2 | 8.5 | 1.7 |
| Bastrop County | 19650 | 27823 | 16.6 | 17.4 | 0.8 | -12.4 | -7.3 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| Tom Green County | 20516 | 26854 | 14.3 | 14.0 | -0.3 | -52.5 | -43.1 | 9.3 | 4.2 |
| Wichita County | 20864 | 26675 | 17.6 | 15.3 | -2.4 | -50.3 | -40.2 | 10.1 | 4.9 |
| Gregg County | 23179 | 26332 | 13.5 | 14.8 | 1.3 | -47.1 | -35.4 | 11.7 | 6.2 |
| Wise County | 17390 | 23431 | 15.5 | 12.9 | -2.7 | -67.9 | -61.5 | 6.4 | 4.2 |
| Hunt County | 14438 | 23080 | 16.3 | 16.1 | -0.3 | -55.1 | -43.6 | 11.5 | 5.1 |
| Henderson County | 17853 | 22389 | 15.9 | 12.5 | -3.4 | -61.7 | -55.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 |
| Angelina County | 15350 | 20165 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 0.9 | -47.5 | -43.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Hood County | 17819 | 19824 | 14.8 | 11.5 | -3.3 | -68.3 | -63.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 |
| Kendall County | 15535 | 19585 | 15.0 | 10.8 | -4.2 | -60.4 | -52.8 | 7.6 | 1.8 |
| Orange County | 16388 | 19551 | 13.4 | 11.5 | -1.9 | -46.6 | -56.6 | -10.0 | 1.3 |
| Ector County | 14588 | 19490 | 15.7 | 17.6 | 2.0 | -50.7 | -36.8 | 13.9 | 8.6 |
| Liberty County | 13160 | 18963 | 15.0 | 19.8 | 4.8 | -56.1 | -46.8 | 9.3 | 9.0 |
| Victoria County | 15083 | 18908 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 1.6 | -41.7 | -34.5 | 7.3 | 6.6 |
| Bowie County | 15609 | 18904 | 13.6 | 12.7 | -0.9 | -31.8 | -40.3 | -8.5 | 2.0 |
| Harrison County | 14350 | 18582 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 0.6 | -46.3 | -43.3 | 3.0 | 4.9 |
| Burnet County | 13888 | 18577 | 14.9 | 11.0 | -3.9 | -56.2 | -51.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Potter County | 13421 | 18525 | 14.3 | 16.9 | 2.6 | -51.9 | -36.4 | 15.5 | 7.1 |
| Kerr County | 15397 | 18272 | 13.5 | 10.2 | -3.3 | -60.2 | -55.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 |
| Wilson County | 11725 | 16237 | 16.1 | 11.4 | -4.7 | -45.9 | -46.1 | -0.2 | 3.4 |
| Walker County | 11449 | 16020 | 14.4 | 16.5 | 2.1 | -47.9 | -38.6 | 9.3 | 5.5 |
| Medina County | 12206 | 15709 | 14.8 | 13.8 | -1.0 | -47.6 | -37.5 | 10.2 | 5.0 |
| Nacogdoches County | 11734 | 15195 | 14.8 | 17.4 | 2.6 | -43.7 | -31.9 | 11.8 | 5.0 |
| Hardin County | 10863 | 14822 | 12.3 | 10.3 | -2.0 | -57.4 | -64.5 | -7.1 | 2.1 |
| Chambers County | 10742 | 14724 | 14.7 | 13.3 | -1.4 | -63.3 | -54.2 | 9.1 | 5.3 |
| Van Zandt County | 10097 | 14104 | 15.8 | 11.5 | -4.3 | -69.2 | -65.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Waller County | 11211 | 13646 | 19.4 | 21.8 | 2.4 | -41.4 | -21.6 | 19.9 | 7.0 |
| Coryell County | 10233 | 13424 | 18.6 | 18.0 | -0.6 | -44.2 | -33.4 | 10.8 | 5.0 |
| Wood County | 10677 | 13317 | 14.9 | 10.4 | -4.5 | -68.9 | -65.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| Polk County | 11659 | 13151 | 18.1 | 13.6 | -4.5 | -57.8 | -57.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| San Patricio County | 10986 | 13056 | 16.3 | 14.7 | -1.6 | -24.6 | -23.0 | 1.6 | 3.4 |
| Rusk County | 9308 | 11891 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 0.8 | -61.8 | -51.9 | 9.9 | 4.6 |
| Lamar County | 8380 | 11390 | 13.3 | 11.9 | -1.4 | -46.6 | -56.1 | -9.5 | 2.2 |
| Starr County | 9161 | 11242 | 36.3 | 25.9 | -10.3 | 86.0 | 82.0 | -4.0 | 0.8 |
| Caldwell County | 7542 | 10934 | 14.8 | 18.3 | 3.5 | -5.4 | -2.0 | 3.4 | 7.4 |
| Washington County | 9908 | 10911 | 11.0 | 9.3 | -1.8 | -60.6 | -56.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| Anderson County | 8668 | 10673 | 13.5 | 12.2 | -1.3 | -56.6 | -56.5 | 0.1 | 3.2 |
| Gillespie County | 8237 | 10438 | 11.4 | 9.4 | -2.0 | -64.7 | -60.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 |
| Wharton County | 8841 | 10433 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 0.5 | -55.9 | -49.3 | 6.7 | 4.4 |
| Cooke County | 7628 | 10405 | 14.0 | 12.1 | -1.9 | -70.0 | -60.4 | 9.6 | 3.5 |
| Navarro County | 7661 | 10370 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 0.5 | -50.4 | -44.2 | 6.2 | 6.8 |
| Upshur County | 8149 | 10328 | 14.4 | 11.8 | -2.5 | -60.9 | -62.3 | -1.4 | 2.3 |
| Atascosa County | 7707 | 10212 | 16.8 | 14.0 | -2.8 | -28.5 | -29.4 | -0.9 | 4.5 |
| Cherokee County | 8717 | 10176 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 0.7 | -61.6 | -53.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 |
| Erath County | 7676 | 9889 | 14.7 | 13.9 | -0.8 | -69.9 | -59.6 | 10.3 | 4.9 |
| Llano County | 8212 | 9706 | 11.1 | 8.1 | -3.0 | -63.9 | -63.2 | 0.7 | -0.5 |
| Maverick County | 6825 | 9704 | 25.4 | 27.1 | 1.7 | 82.3 | 65.6 | -16.7 | 7.7 |
| Val Verde County | 6371 | 9216 | 17.3 | 19.7 | 2.3 | 18.6 | 7.3 | -11.3 | 3.6 |
| Austin County | 6862 | 9167 | 11.1 | 10.4 | -0.7 | -68.5 | -58.1 | 10.4 | 4.5 |
| Hopkins County | 7523 | 9112 | 14.3 | 13.3 | -1.1 | -54.9 | -55.2 | -0.3 | 3.8 |
| Brown County | 7417 | 8975 | 12.5 | 11.3 | -1.2 | -74.2 | -69.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Jasper County | 5878 | 8848 | 12.3 | 11.0 | -1.3 | -28.9 | -58.4 | -29.5 | 1.9 |
| Fannin County | 6044 | 8541 | 15.1 | 11.8 | -3.3 | -59.4 | -61.7 | -2.3 | 2.0 |
| Matagorda County | 6152 | 8274 | 11.7 | 14.1 | 2.4 | -28.3 | -40.1 | -11.8 | 4.6 |
| Aransas County | 6919 | 8214 | 14.9 | 11.5 | -3.4 | -58.7 | -54.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| Bandera County | 7357 | 7885 | 13.4 | 9.4 | -4.0 | -64.3 | -61.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| Jim Wells County | 5957 | 7665 | 17.9 | 16.1 | -1.8 | 44.4 | 25.6 | -18.8 | 1.5 |
| Cass County | 5604 | 7644 | 11.9 | 10.7 | -1.2 | -33.7 | -57.8 | -24.1 | 2.2 |
| Grimes County | 5116 | 7189 | 13.9 | 11.4 | -2.5 | -56.4 | -53.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| San Jacinto County | 5700 | 7077 | 12.0 | 10.8 | -1.2 | -52.0 | -63.7 | -11.7 | 3.7 |
| Fayette County | 5452 | 7018 | 9.2 | 8.9 | -0.3 | -56.0 | -60.5 | -4.5 | 2.7 |
| Hill County | 6111 | 6730 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.6 | -63.2 | -57.1 | 6.1 | 1.2 |
| Milam County | 5707 | 6622 | 13.4 | 10.8 | -2.6 | -47.5 | -52.4 | -4.9 | 2.6 |
| Lampasas County | 5187 | 6582 | 13.9 | 11.7 | -2.3 | -62.5 | -57.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 |
| Colorado County | 4745 | 6334 | 9.4 | 9.1 | -0.3 | -58.4 | -56.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Titus County | 4642 | 6268 | 15.4 | 17.6 | 2.2 | -37.4 | -49.8 | -12.4 | 6.5 |
| Uvalde County | 5092 | 6139 | 16.7 | 16.0 | -0.6 | 23.7 | -10.2 | -33.9 | 2.1 |
| Kleberg County | 4788 | 6093 | 14.2 | 13.7 | -0.6 | 23.0 | 3.0 | -20.0 | 3.2 |
| Blanco County | 4833 | 5967 | 13.1 | 8.9 | -4.3 | -52.8 | -51.0 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| Palo Pinto County | 5331 | 5590 | 12.7 | 10.8 | -1.9 | -66.3 | -63.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Montague County | 5076 | 5442 | 11.0 | 9.9 | -1.1 | -75.2 | -71.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| Lavaca County | 4516 | 5384 | 10.5 | 8.1 | -2.4 | -51.4 | -69.9 | -18.5 | 1.6 |
| Hale County | 3921 | 5372 | 14.4 | 16.9 | 2.5 | -62.8 | -52.0 | 10.8 | 8.2 |
| Freestone County | 3747 | 5353 | 12.3 | 12.2 | -0.1 | -54.5 | -57.7 | -3.2 | 3.1 |
| Bee County | 3941 | 5303 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 1.0 | -12.3 | -34.9 | -22.6 | 0.3 |
| Robertson County | 3530 | 5268 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 1.6 | -35.1 | -47.2 | -12.1 | 3.0 |
| Burleson County | 3970 | 5150 | 12.1 | 10.0 | -2.1 | -56.1 | -57.3 | -1.1 | 2.3 |
| Panola County | 4446 | 5131 | 13.2 | 11.0 | -2.2 | -57.9 | -61.9 | -4.1 | 2.8 |
| Howard County | 4256 | 5091 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 0.3 | -63.8 | -56.2 | 7.6 | 5.9 |
| Gonzales County | 2946 | 5053 | 11.6 | 14.6 | 3.0 | -55.7 | -50.9 | 4.8 | 6.6 |
| Young County | 3226 | 4934 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 1.1 | -75.9 | -75.0 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Lee County | 3596 | 4910 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 0.5 | -39.5 | -51.4 | -12.0 | 3.8 |
| Houston County | 4040 | 4775 | 12.7 | 9.0 | -3.7 | -48.2 | -52.3 | -4.1 | 1.6 |
| Limestone County | 3975 | 4759 | 12.0 | 11.4 | -0.6 | -49.3 | -48.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Bosque County | 3724 | 4736 | 13.3 | 9.3 | -4.0 | -62.4 | -62.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Hockley County | 3098 | 4525 | 10.8 | 13.9 | 3.1 | -76.0 | -61.0 | 15.0 | 8.0 |
| Shelby County | 3309 | 4488 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 0.8 | -56.5 | -57.8 | -1.4 | 4.5 |
| Hutchinson County | 3632 | 4401 | 11.0 | 10.8 | -0.2 | -81.2 | -74.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 |
| Tyler County | 3979 | 4344 | 13.4 | 10.9 | -2.5 | -52.5 | -65.6 | -13.1 | 3.2 |
| Trinity County | 3313 | 4246 | 13.8 | 12.3 | -1.5 | -55.1 | -64.1 | -9.0 | 2.2 |
| DeWitt County | 3387 | 4150 | 10.8 | 8.8 | -2.1 | -67.9 | -63.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| Calhoun County | 3062 | 4105 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 1.4 | -14.3 | -45.3 | -31.0 | 2.8 |
| Leon County | 3105 | 4088 | 10.8 | 8.8 | -2.0 | -73.9 | -73.3 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Gray County | 3341 | 3880 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 0.8 | -82.3 | -75.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 |
| Rains County | 3331 | 3739 | 15.8 | 10.1 | -5.7 | -58.0 | -65.4 | -7.4 | -0.4 |
| Eastland County | 3042 | 3732 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 0.1 | -74.9 | -70.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Callahan County | 3310 | 3563 | 12.9 | 9.6 | -3.3 | -76.2 | -73.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| Jackson County | 2399 | 3433 | 12.3 | 12.1 | -0.2 | -49.6 | -65.1 | -15.5 | 2.1 |
| Comanche County | 2538 | 3368 | 12.8 | 11.1 | -1.7 | -62.7 | -70.0 | -7.2 | 1.6 |
| Gaines County | 2501 | 3297 | 19.4 | 18.4 | -1.0 | -76.0 | -70.8 | 5.2 | 7.3 |
| Somervell County | 2624 | 3236 | 13.0 | 7.9 | -5.1 | -69.6 | -72.6 | -3.0 | 0.8 |
| Camp County | 2706 | 3183 | 13.2 | 13.8 | 0.6 | -40.1 | -48.4 | -8.3 | 3.4 |
| Sabine County | 2455 | 2992 | 14.9 | 10.9 | -4.1 | -59.1 | -75.5 | -16.4 | -0.2 |
| Madison County | 2083 | 2930 | 11.0 | 11.0 | -0.0 | -64.8 | -60.2 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Franklin County | 2251 | 2903 | 11.9 | 10.4 | -1.5 | -71.9 | -69.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Andrews County | 2225 | 2832 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 0.5 | -70.1 | -61.7 | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| Willacy County | 1997 | 2812 | 19.4 | 17.2 | -2.2 | 74.0 | 50.6 | -23.4 | 2.0 |
| Red River County | 2340 | 2790 | 13.2 | 10.3 | -2.9 | -24.6 | -52.9 | -28.3 | -0.0 |
| Morris County | 2121 | 2746 | 11.6 | 10.5 | -1.1 | -7.4 | -40.9 | -33.5 | 2.9 |
| Scurry County | 2545 | 2736 | 13.8 | 11.3 | -2.6 | -72.7 | -71.3 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Marion County | 1838 | 2685 | 13.8 | 12.3 | -1.5 | -26.7 | -45.2 | -18.6 | 0.9 |
| Moore County | 2059 | 2665 | 12.6 | 18.6 | 6.0 | -82.3 | -61.0 | 21.3 | 9.0 |
| Archer County | 2065 | 2597 | 12.5 | 9.4 | -3.1 | -75.4 | -77.1 | -1.7 | -0.3 |
| Reeves County | 1521 | 2582 | 17.6 | 25.9 | 8.3 | 79.0 | 55.1 | -23.8 | 5.6 |
| Brewster County | 2639 | 2575 | 14.1 | 10.4 | -3.7 | 15.3 | 0.2 | -15.1 | 1.9 |
| Duval County | 2647 | 2558 | 16.9 | 13.9 | -3.0 | 85.4 | 76.7 | -8.8 | 0.7 |
| Pecos County | 2551 | 2513 | 19.5 | 14.0 | -5.5 | 21.6 | -35.5 | -57.1 | 1.2 |
| Clay County | 1909 | 2498 | 13.0 | 10.7 | -2.3 | -68.2 | -69.9 | -1.7 | 2.3 |
| Coleman County | 2285 | 2486 | 12.5 | 9.5 | -2.9 | -75.8 | -76.7 | -0.9 | 0.9 |
| Wilbarger County | 2061 | 2470 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 0.7 | -51.2 | -63.0 | -11.8 | 1.4 |
| Deaf Smith County | 1867 | 2426 | 12.5 | 18.2 | 5.6 | -63.8 | -55.1 | 8.7 | 5.9 |
| Falls County | 1974 | 2417 | 14.5 | 12.4 | -2.1 | -33.4 | -34.4 | -1.0 | 4.1 |
| Newton County | 2030 | 2360 | 13.4 | 10.2 | -3.2 | 1.8 | -66.3 | -68.1 | -0.1 |
| Goliad County | 2009 | 2329 | 9.6 | 8.7 | -0.9 | -39.7 | -62.4 | -22.7 | 0.8 |
| Jack County | 1634 | 2318 | 11.6 | 10.3 | -1.3 | -69.2 | -76.1 | -6.8 | 3.1 |
| Karnes County | 1896 | 2311 | 13.4 | 9.4 | -4.1 | 7.8 | -55.2 | -63.0 | -1.3 |
| Hamilton County | 1858 | 2309 | 12.1 | 9.0 | -3.0 | -71.6 | -72.6 | -0.9 | 0.9 |
| Live Oak County | 1985 | 2308 | 13.5 | 8.7 | -4.8 | -52.7 | -63.5 | -10.8 | 1.4 |
| Jones County | 1667 | 2295 | 14.2 | 10.5 | -3.7 | -59.7 | -63.5 | -3.7 | 0.0 |
| Zapata County | 2674 | 2273 | 54.1 | 20.2 | -33.9 | 89.3 | 87.2 | -2.2 | -0.1 |
| Nolan County | 1710 | 2132 | 15.1 | 11.4 | -3.7 | -38.5 | -59.1 | -20.6 | 0.4 |
| San Augustine County | 1644 | 2101 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 2.3 | -0.8 | -42.0 | -41.2 | 1.8 |
| Frio County | 1799 | 1990 | 19.3 | 15.3 | -4.0 | 64.4 | 47.0 | -17.4 | 4.5 |
| Runnels County | 1525 | 1893 | 11.2 | 9.7 | -1.5 | -77.4 | -74.9 | 2.5 | -0.7 |
| Zavala County | 1267 | 1837 | 14.7 | 21.0 | 6.3 | 87.1 | 74.4 | -12.6 | 2.2 |
| McCulloch County | 1462 | 1804 | 11.9 | 10.1 | -1.8 | -74.4 | -74.2 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| Dawson County | 1595 | 1750 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 1.5 | -60.8 | -59.5 | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| Dimmit County | 1571 | 1728 | 22.5 | 15.3 | -7.3 | 84.0 | 72.1 | -11.9 | -1.2 |
| Stephens County | 1630 | 1701 | 12.1 | 11.5 | -0.7 | -73.6 | -80.2 | -6.7 | -0.5 |
| Lamb County | 1252 | 1664 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 2.6 | -51.3 | -60.0 | -8.7 | 4.1 |
| Ward County | 1396 | 1659 | 15.8 | 15.0 | -0.8 | -9.2 | -53.2 | -44.0 | 3.0 |
| Mason County | 1460 | 1637 | 9.0 | 6.8 | -2.3 | -76.4 | -72.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| Terry County | 1629 | 1625 | 12.7 | 11.8 | -0.9 | -65.4 | -67.7 | -2.3 | 3.0 |
| Presidio County | 1329 | 1563 | 22.0 | 21.0 | -1.1 | 78.6 | 80.1 | 1.5 | -0.4 |
| Refugio County | 1285 | 1547 | 11.1 | 8.5 | -2.7 | -1.5 | -48.4 | -46.9 | 0.4 |
| Mills County | 1337 | 1489 | 11.0 | 8.7 | -2.3 | -66.3 | -76.7 | -10.4 | 2.0 |
| San Saba County | 1139 | 1461 | 11.5 | 8.4 | -3.2 | -80.5 | -80.6 | -0.1 | 1.9 |
| Ochiltree County | 984 | 1384 | 10.2 | 16.8 | 6.7 | -89.4 | -76.2 | 13.2 | 7.0 |
| Kimble County | 1161 | 1303 | 11.1 | 9.4 | -1.7 | -83.6 | -76.8 | 6.8 | 2.0 |
| Mitchell County | 1024 | 1298 | 19.6 | 11.5 | -8.1 | -60.3 | -67.8 | -7.5 | 1.2 |
| Carson County | 1033 | 1297 | 11.1 | 8.4 | -2.7 | -80.3 | -76.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| Childress County | 945 | 1248 | 12.4 | 9.6 | -2.8 | -73.3 | -73.8 | -0.5 | 2.0 |
| Yoakum County | 989 | 1233 | 12.2 | 16.5 | 4.3 | -83.9 | -72.7 | 11.3 | 4.8 |
| Delta County | 1012 | 1232 | 14.7 | 11.0 | -3.7 | -57.9 | -66.2 | -8.2 | 3.1 |
| La Salle County | 650 | 1230 | 15.1 | 19.4 | 4.4 | 82.8 | 70.3 | -12.4 | 1.9 |
| Brooks County | 1155 | 1197 | 18.6 | 15.3 | -3.3 | 90.6 | 67.8 | -22.8 | 4.3 |
| Wheeler County | 948 | 1163 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 1.9 | -67.9 | -83.4 | -15.5 | 2.1 |
| Real County | 995 | 1115 | 21.5 | 8.2 | -13.3 | -76.5 | -69.6 | 6.9 | -1.6 |
| Kinney County | 666 | 1060 | 11.7 | 16.7 | 5.0 | -14.1 | -34.9 | -20.8 | 4.1 |
| Lynn County | 465 | 1028 | 11.8 | 14.7 | 2.9 | -66.0 | -61.3 | 4.7 | 6.7 |
| Hartley County | 820 | 975 | 12.2 | 11.1 | -1.1 | -86.0 | -81.9 | 4.0 | 0.2 |
| Swisher County | 885 | 955 | 10.7 | 9.4 | -1.3 | -30.6 | -57.9 | -27.3 | 1.7 |
| Martin County | 889 | 939 | 13.6 | 11.6 | -2.0 | -78.4 | -77.7 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Shackelford County | 719 | 916 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 0.7 | -78.7 | -80.2 | -1.5 | 2.5 |
| Bailey County | 625 | 896 | 12.0 | 16.2 | 4.2 | -69.8 | -61.3 | 8.5 | 6.4 |
| Fisher County | 759 | 893 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 0.3 | 12.1 | -62.7 | -74.8 | 2.4 |
| Floyd County | 962 | 885 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 2.0 | -72.9 | -66.7 | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| Jim Hogg County | 1019 | 877 | 23.9 | 14.5 | -9.5 | 91.9 | 84.7 | -7.1 | -0.7 |
| Hansford County | 617 | 869 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 3.4 | -95.0 | -83.9 | 11.1 | 5.3 |
| Crosby County | 567 | 854 | 13.1 | 15.0 | 1.9 | -22.8 | -47.8 | -25.0 | 4.4 |
| Coke County | 745 | 845 | 11.4 | 10.1 | -1.4 | -57.0 | -74.0 | -16.9 | 2.0 |
| Sutton County | 850 | 841 | 14.0 | 9.3 | -4.7 | -73.1 | -69.6 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Castro County | 674 | 836 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 2.9 | -49.0 | -59.0 | -10.0 | 3.5 |
| Baylor County | 803 | 834 | 11.5 | 8.9 | -2.6 | -51.7 | -76.0 | -24.3 | -0.0 |
| Donley County | 698 | 834 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 0.4 | -73.6 | -79.1 | -5.5 | -0.0 |
| Haskell County | 817 | 825 | 12.7 | 7.4 | -5.3 | -6.7 | -64.2 | -57.5 | -0.4 |
| Hemphill County | 757 | 809 | 9.1 | 9.0 | -0.1 | -85.7 | -81.7 | 4.0 | 0.6 |
| Parmer County | 523 | 785 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 0.5 | -73.0 | -70.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Jeff Davis County | 676 | 759 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 2.1 | -4.3 | -43.5 | -39.2 | 4.3 |
| Garza County | 700 | 757 | 11.7 | 10.0 | -1.7 | -70.0 | -71.5 | -1.5 | 4.3 |
| Culberson County | 401 | 740 | 22.7 | 27.2 | 4.5 | 86.0 | 58.9 | -27.1 | 7.4 |
| Schleicher County | 683 | 702 | 13.5 | 10.5 | -2.9 | -50.2 | -67.9 | -17.7 | 2.3 |
| Crane County | 707 | 679 | 21.5 | 16.9 | -4.6 | -47.5 | -72.2 | -24.6 | 1.5 |
| Armstrong County | 489 | 651 | 11.9 | 8.9 | -3.0 | -89.2 | -76.7 | 12.5 | 3.4 |
| Upton County | 753 | 620 | 19.1 | 9.0 | -10.1 | 6.6 | -67.9 | -74.5 | 0.5 |
| Collingsworth County | 513 | 619 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 1.2 | -66.5 | -81.6 | -15.1 | 1.3 |
| Crockett County | 837 | 616 | 15.3 | 9.7 | -5.6 | 55.7 | -46.6 | -102.3 | 0.5 |
| Menard County | 522 | 593 | 10.5 | 10.1 | -0.4 | -81.6 | -70.3 | 11.3 | 3.0 |
| Edwards County | 459 | 568 | 10.2 | 8.8 | -1.4 | -64.3 | -70.2 | -6.0 | -0.1 |
| Hardeman County | 510 | 564 | 11.8 | 8.5 | -3.3 | -11.4 | -59.2 | -47.8 | -2.1 |
| Dallam County | 468 | 548 | 13.2 | 19.7 | 6.5 | -80.3 | -66.8 | 13.6 | 7.8 |
| Winkler County | 655 | 517 | 18.9 | 20.1 | 1.2 | -71.9 | -60.3 | 11.6 | 7.6 |
| Concho County | 400 | 482 | 8.5 | 8.3 | -0.2 | -69.0 | -70.1 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| Reagan County | 420 | 479 | 10.2 | 13.4 | 3.1 | -87.9 | -75.4 | 12.5 | 2.9 |
| Hall County | 412 | 455 | 11.4 | 13.8 | 2.4 | -13.8 | -74.3 | -60.5 | 1.2 |
| Dickens County | 380 | 444 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 1.1 | -61.3 | -74.1 | -12.8 | 2.7 |
| Cochran County | 279 | 439 | 15.4 | 18.7 | 3.3 | -74.2 | -69.5 | 4.7 | 6.3 |
| Irion County | 371 | 417 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | -65.2 | -79.6 | -14.4 | -2.6 |
| Sherman County | 344 | 415 | 7.3 | 15.2 | 7.9 | -91.0 | -76.4 | 14.6 | 6.6 |
| Oldham County | 351 | 409 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 0.1 | -78.3 | -82.9 | -4.5 | 3.2 |
| Briscoe County | 265 | 389 | 9.8 | 8.2 | -1.6 | -70.9 | -81.7 | -10.8 | 0.2 |
| Cottle County | 313 | 385 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 4.1 | -17.3 | -77.1 | -59.9 | -0.8 |
| Glasscock County | 306 | 373 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -90.8 | -90.9 | -0.0 | 0.7 |
| Knox County | 245 | 359 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 0.6 | -41.6 | -69.4 | -27.7 | 0.0 |
| Throckmorton County | 236 | 310 | 10.2 | 9.0 | -1.1 | -66.1 | -80.6 | -14.5 | 0.7 |
| Sterling County | 244 | 308 | 8.6 | 8.1 | -0.5 | -95.9 | -90.9 | 5.0 | 2.9 |
| Motley County | 268 | 302 | 92.2 | 8.3 | -83.9 | -85.8 | -85.8 | 0.1 | 2.6 |
| Lipscomb County | 298 | 273 | 10.1 | 9.2 | -0.9 | -79.5 | -83.5 | -4.0 | 1.6 |
| Foard County | 355 | 268 | 19.2 | 7.5 | -11.7 | 35.5 | -75.7 | -111.2 | -2.0 |
| Roberts County | 215 | 260 | 8.8 | 8.5 | -0.4 | -96.3 | -91.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| McMullen County | 196 | 248 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 2.7 | -33.2 | -87.5 | -54.3 | 5.3 |
| Stonewall County | 289 | 245 | 8.7 | 6.5 | -2.1 | 19.7 | -51.4 | -71.2 | 0.3 |
| Borden County | 197 | 229 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 2.6 | -59.9 | -94.8 | -34.9 | -1.9 |
| Terrell County | 292 | 228 | 12.3 | 7.9 | -4.4 | 36.3 | -34.2 | -70.5 | 0.7 |
| Hudspeth County | 182 | 220 | 17.0 | 18.6 | 1.6 | 29.1 | -68.6 | -97.8 | 0.2 |
| Kent County | 188 | 186 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | -66.1 | -66.1 | 2.7 |
| Kenedy County | 86 | 137 | 30.2 | 24.8 | -5.4 | 70.9 | 70.1 | -0.9 | -4.5 |
| King County | 59 | 87 | 8.5 | 13.8 | 5.3 | -37.3 | -95.4 | -58.1 | 0.6 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Separate tracker totals: UF Election Lab, CNN/AP/Catalist and NBC News/TargetSmart. Full-2022 early totals: CNN/AP/Catalist; 2022 turnout: OnPoint. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH. Counties require at least 50 ballots in both years. Plot positions are clamped at ±15 horizontal and ±30 vertical points; downloads retain exact values. The grey band uses the plotted county universe. Separate tracker totals and 2022 full-period totals are context, not the matched-stage denominators.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-county-tx.csv

Across the six states in our county comparison, unaffiliated early ballots increased from about 2.46 million in 2022 to 4.19 million in 2026. That is a 70% increase. Democratic early ballots rose 35%, from 4.18 million to 5.63 million, while Republican ballots rose 23%, from 4.47 million to 5.47 million.

Those states are Texas, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa. We compare each with the same number of days left before Election Day in 2022. We start with each state’s county bubble chart, then break down the combined growth and voting-history figures. The six additional statewide comparisons follow.

## How to read a county dot

Each dot represents a county. Bigger dots represent more early ballots. A dot to the left means occasional voters have a smaller share of that county’s early electorate than in 2022. A dot to the right means their share has increased.

Here, occasional voters voted in zero or one of the preceding four general elections; consistent voters voted in two to four. Each chart compares changes in these groups’ shares, not candidate choices.

Height describes a different comparison. Above the horizontal zero line, the Democratic-minus-Republican share improved from 2022. Below it, the Republican group gained relative to the Democratic group. These are percentage-point changes in the makeup of early voters. They do not tell us which candidates received their votes.

Blue dots mark Democratic gains and red dots Republican gains. Grey dots identify counties where the increase in the unaffiliated share was larger than the change in the Democratic-Republican gap. The grey horizontal band represents the statewide increase in the unaffiliated share.

A tight cluster means counties had similar changes on these measures. A wide spread means their experiences differed. To describe an urban-rural divide, we also need to identify which counties are urban and rural; the dot spacing alone does not provide that classification. Some extreme changes are drawn at the plot edges to keep the scales readable.

## Texas

Texas has the largest unaffiliated growth of the six states, at 89.8%. Among consistent unaffiliated voters, the increase is 174.0%: about 274 early ballots now for every 100 in the 2022 comparison. Democratic growth also exceeds Republican growth, 41.3% against 20.6%.

Republicans still lead the tracked party-group count. Their advantage narrowed from 9.8 percentage points to 2.9. That is a 6.9-point improvement for Democrats, measured as a share of all tracked early ballots.

The county picture is mixed. Democrats improved their relative margin in 127 of the 253 plotted counties, about half. The largest counties had larger Democratic improvements: Harris by 8.6 points, Dallas by 6.5 and Tarrant by 11.0. All three also had a small increase in the occasional-voter share, while the statewide share edged down from 17.1% to 16.7%. Counties differ in size, so counting counties and counting ballots can produce quite different impressions.

## North Carolina

**North Carolina county early voting**

| County | 2022 ballots | 2026 ballots | 2022 occasional share (%) | 2026 occasional share (%) | Occasional-share change (points) | 2022 D minus R (points) | 2026 D minus R (points) | Party-gap change (points) | Unaffiliated-share change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wake County | 246690 | 346516 | 19.4 | 14.7 | -4.7 | 20.7 | 24.4 | 3.7 | 5.3 |
| Mecklenburg County | 204056 | 294247 | 19.3 | 16.9 | -2.3 | 24.2 | 32.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 |
| Guilford County | 106927 | 142823 | 14.1 | 13.7 | -0.4 | 19.0 | 25.7 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Durham County | 84931 | 112884 | 21.2 | 15.7 | -5.5 | 50.7 | 50.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 |
| Forsyth County | 80224 | 105952 | 15.8 | 13.1 | -2.7 | 13.9 | 18.4 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| Buncombe County | 75575 | 99550 | 20.2 | 14.0 | -6.2 | 24.7 | 26.7 | 2.1 | 6.2 |
| New Hanover County | 55410 | 69054 | 19.0 | 12.8 | -6.2 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| Union County | 51301 | 66864 | 18.0 | 13.9 | -4.1 | -19.7 | -10.3 | 9.4 | 5.6 |
| Brunswick County | 48473 | 61552 | 25.1 | 13.7 | -11.4 | -17.5 | -15.3 | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| Cumberland County | 47498 | 60953 | 15.4 | 14.5 | -0.9 | 28.1 | 31.7 | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| Johnston County | 41127 | 54977 | 18.6 | 14.2 | -4.4 | -7.4 | 1.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 |
| Gaston County | 41022 | 54085 | 14.7 | 12.1 | -2.6 | -16.1 | -4.7 | 11.3 | 5.0 |
| Orange County | 44165 | 53915 | 22.0 | 16.4 | -5.6 | 47.0 | 45.2 | -1.8 | 5.0 |
| Cabarrus County | 35293 | 52169 | 17.0 | 14.5 | -2.6 | -3.3 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 5.9 |
| Iredell County | 37387 | 48334 | 17.8 | 12.5 | -5.4 | -23.5 | -14.9 | 8.6 | 4.5 |
| Alamance County | 34688 | 44852 | 15.3 | 12.7 | -2.6 | 1.8 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 5.7 |
| Henderson County | 31654 | 40779 | 18.9 | 12.5 | -6.4 | -14.1 | -8.1 | 6.1 | 4.2 |
| Pitt County | 31915 | 40420 | 14.9 | 13.9 | -1.0 | 17.3 | 22.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| Catawba County | 32592 | 40070 | 13.8 | 11.8 | -2.0 | -29.4 | -22.6 | 6.8 | 4.6 |
| Davidson County | 32467 | 37491 | 13.1 | 9.9 | -3.3 | -35.2 | -26.5 | 8.7 | 4.3 |
| Chatham County | 28349 | 33573 | 17.2 | 11.1 | -6.0 | 22.0 | 22.5 | 0.5 | 4.2 |
| Onslow County | 22646 | 32050 | 21.6 | 16.8 | -4.8 | -15.8 | -13.3 | 2.5 | 5.4 |
| Randolph County | 27730 | 30139 | 12.2 | 10.0 | -2.2 | -45.2 | -35.8 | 9.4 | 4.4 |
| Harnett County | 21185 | 29184 | 18.3 | 16.1 | -2.2 | -5.7 | -0.5 | 5.2 | 5.9 |
| Rowan County | 24518 | 28947 | 13.0 | 10.8 | -2.2 | -24.4 | -15.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 |
| Nash County | 21703 | 28427 | 11.2 | 10.7 | -0.5 | 13.7 | 15.7 | 2.0 | 8.1 |
| Craven County | 21066 | 28167 | 16.3 | 12.4 | -3.9 | -5.8 | -6.5 | -0.6 | 3.7 |
| Moore County | 21804 | 28093 | 19.1 | 13.3 | -5.8 | -20.3 | -15.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Wayne County | 22067 | 26714 | 11.9 | 11.3 | -0.6 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Lincoln County | 20363 | 25628 | 17.3 | 10.6 | -6.7 | -29.1 | -25.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Carteret County | 17524 | 23733 | 14.6 | 9.5 | -5.1 | -28.1 | -29.9 | -1.8 | 3.7 |
| Rockingham County | 18799 | 22780 | 12.1 | 9.2 | -2.9 | -8.5 | -8.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 |
| Franklin County | 16139 | 22757 | 17.7 | 13.1 | -4.6 | 8.9 | 8.3 | -0.6 | 5.4 |
| Cleveland County | 16991 | 20692 | 12.4 | 9.5 | -2.9 | -2.8 | -0.5 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| Burke County | 17944 | 20242 | 13.2 | 9.6 | -3.6 | -18.4 | -14.9 | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| Haywood County | 15538 | 18836 | 17.1 | 11.5 | -5.5 | 1.4 | -0.3 | -1.6 | 7.0 |
| Wilson County | 15165 | 18620 | 11.0 | 10.8 | -0.2 | 23.3 | 27.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| Caldwell County | 17174 | 18602 | 14.0 | 9.4 | -4.6 | -35.9 | -30.0 | 5.9 | 4.0 |
| Granville County | 14436 | 18177 | 14.0 | 9.9 | -4.0 | 16.8 | 15.7 | -1.2 | 3.9 |
| Pender County | 13508 | 17117 | 18.8 | 12.4 | -6.4 | -19.3 | -16.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Robeson County | 12675 | 16579 | 15.0 | 14.9 | -0.1 | 43.2 | 33.0 | -10.2 | 6.3 |
| Watauga County | 13836 | 16371 | 25.9 | 21.6 | -4.3 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 6.5 |
| Surry County | 13005 | 15969 | 13.2 | 9.8 | -3.4 | -26.4 | -25.5 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| Lee County | 12162 | 14348 | 14.3 | 12.3 | -2.1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| Stanly County | 11310 | 13736 | 11.7 | 9.6 | -2.0 | -36.0 | -25.8 | 10.2 | 4.6 |
| Rutherford County | 11649 | 13446 | 14.9 | 10.2 | -4.7 | -24.6 | -20.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Lenoir County | 11727 | 13106 | 11.1 | 9.7 | -1.4 | 14.6 | 21.2 | 6.6 | 2.7 |
| Beaufort County | 10041 | 12862 | 12.7 | 9.6 | -3.1 | -7.0 | -6.8 | 0.2 | 2.5 |
| Dare County | 9383 | 12556 | 21.5 | 12.8 | -8.6 | -3.0 | -7.2 | -4.2 | 6.7 |
| Edgecombe County | 8876 | 12182 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 1.3 | 54.6 | 51.6 | -3.0 | 4.9 |
| Wilkes County | 9595 | 11442 | 12.1 | 8.6 | -3.5 | -39.2 | -35.4 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| Davie County | 9465 | 11356 | 13.2 | 9.4 | -3.7 | -38.6 | -30.9 | 7.6 | 4.5 |
| Transylvania County | 10143 | 11208 | 19.2 | 11.8 | -7.3 | -1.3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 4.6 |
| Halifax County | 8095 | 11017 | 12.3 | 9.8 | -2.5 | 56.1 | 54.1 | -2.0 | 3.0 |
| Macon County | 9497 | 10931 | 22.6 | 14.1 | -8.6 | -24.7 | -20.3 | 4.4 | 6.1 |
| Jackson County | 9355 | 10903 | 24.2 | 18.5 | -5.7 | 12.1 | 9.7 | -2.3 | 7.4 |
| Hoke County | 7924 | 10807 | 19.0 | 16.3 | -2.7 | 35.9 | 35.1 | -0.8 | 6.9 |
| McDowell County | 8771 | 10732 | 16.0 | 10.6 | -5.4 | -24.7 | -23.2 | 1.4 | 5.3 |
| Sampson County | 8285 | 10453 | 11.2 | 10.2 | -1.0 | -2.4 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
| Person County | 9223 | 10247 | 13.1 | 8.6 | -4.5 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 |
| Vance County | 8398 | 10080 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -0.7 | 43.2 | 44.0 | 0.8 | 3.5 |
| Stokes County | 8610 | 10038 | 13.5 | 8.6 | -4.8 | -36.3 | -33.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 |
| Columbus County | 10247 | 9766 | 15.8 | 9.2 | -6.6 | 23.0 | 10.4 | -12.6 | 5.5 |
| Pasquotank County | 8932 | 9607 | 17.5 | 13.4 | -4.1 | 22.1 | 19.2 | -2.9 | 4.4 |
| Duplin County | 6178 | 8895 | 12.1 | 11.6 | -0.5 | 13.2 | 7.3 | -5.9 | 3.6 |
| Alexander County | 9997 | 8574 | 12.6 | 7.8 | -4.8 | -33.7 | -32.8 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| Richmond County | 6278 | 8186 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 1.0 | 20.6 | 18.4 | -2.2 | 2.7 |
| Scotland County | 6030 | 7144 | 12.2 | 10.9 | -1.3 | 36.5 | 27.9 | -8.7 | 4.9 |
| Polk County | 5887 | 7111 | 18.9 | 12.2 | -6.7 | -7.0 | -7.9 | -1.0 | 3.6 |
| Bladen County | 6751 | 7065 | 11.6 | 9.3 | -2.3 | 26.1 | 21.8 | -4.3 | 2.6 |
| Cherokee County | 5691 | 6914 | 26.1 | 15.0 | -11.1 | -37.8 | -38.1 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| Madison County | 5720 | 6891 | 16.4 | 10.9 | -5.5 | 10.4 | 7.7 | -2.6 | 6.5 |
| Ashe County | 5706 | 6866 | 14.3 | 9.1 | -5.2 | -19.9 | -18.8 | 1.0 | 4.8 |
| Yadkin County | 5004 | 6834 | 12.0 | 8.6 | -3.4 | -48.7 | -44.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Yancey County | 5670 | 5799 | 16.7 | 10.5 | -6.2 | -7.5 | -3.8 | 3.7 | 6.1 |
| Currituck County | 4002 | 5760 | 23.1 | 13.5 | -9.7 | -22.0 | -23.0 | -1.0 | 0.7 |
| Martin County | 4179 | 5191 | 11.9 | 10.2 | -1.7 | 42.2 | 38.0 | -4.2 | 3.6 |
| Caswell County | 3989 | 5028 | 10.3 | 7.9 | -2.4 | 28.0 | 22.4 | -5.6 | 2.5 |
| Warren County | 3853 | 5028 | 11.5 | 9.8 | -1.7 | 57.5 | 49.6 | -7.9 | 4.3 |
| Montgomery County | 3809 | 4851 | 13.3 | 10.2 | -3.0 | -4.8 | -1.8 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Hertford County | 3129 | 4591 | 10.7 | 8.0 | -2.7 | 65.5 | 61.5 | -3.9 | 1.7 |
| Anson County | 3333 | 4389 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 0.3 | 49.2 | 42.1 | -7.0 | 5.0 |
| Bertie County | 3392 | 4213 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 58.6 | 57.4 | -1.2 | 0.1 |
| Northampton County | 3344 | 4206 | 10.7 | 8.8 | -1.9 | 60.3 | 55.1 | -5.2 | 3.1 |
| Chowan County | 3386 | 4170 | 15.1 | 10.4 | -4.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | -4.0 | 3.2 |
| Mitchell County | 3904 | 4165 | 14.2 | 9.4 | -4.8 | -50.9 | -42.5 | 8.4 | 6.3 |
| Pamlico County | 3393 | 4047 | 17.7 | 10.4 | -7.4 | -6.2 | -10.1 | -3.9 | 2.1 |
| Greene County | 3271 | 3839 | 10.9 | 9.1 | -1.8 | 32.4 | 28.8 | -3.7 | 2.8 |
| Perquimans County | 2849 | 3728 | 16.3 | 11.7 | -4.6 | -4.3 | -10.8 | -6.5 | 1.5 |
| Clay County | 3184 | 3672 | 26.8 | 14.8 | -12.0 | -33.6 | -30.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Swain County | 2905 | 3185 | 17.5 | 13.7 | -3.8 | 2.9 | 0.3 | -2.6 | 5.3 |
| Alleghany County | 3232 | 3159 | 13.8 | 7.7 | -6.1 | -14.2 | -19.7 | -5.4 | 4.4 |
| Avery County | 2219 | 3098 | 20.2 | 11.5 | -8.7 | -38.2 | -35.8 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| Washington County | 2088 | 2898 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 1.6 | 53.2 | 49.7 | -3.5 | 2.6 |
| Camden County | 2260 | 2536 | 14.9 | 9.7 | -5.3 | -12.1 | -12.3 | -0.1 | 1.3 |
| Gates County | 2188 | 2272 | 15.4 | 9.8 | -5.6 | 43.1 | 30.9 | -12.2 | 3.1 |
| Graham County | 1928 | 2154 | 16.0 | 11.4 | -4.6 | -27.9 | -33.6 | -5.7 | 4.3 |
| Jones County | 1634 | 2087 | 10.8 | 9.3 | -1.4 | 10.5 | 8.8 | -1.7 | 3.7 |
| Hyde County | 504 | 837 | 14.5 | 12.1 | -2.4 | 30.4 | 29.5 | -0.8 | 0.5 |
| Tyrrell County | 609 | 761 | 11.7 | 7.6 | -4.0 | 24.0 | 22.2 | -1.8 | 4.1 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Separate tracker totals: UF Election Lab, CNN/AP/Catalist and NBC News/TargetSmart. Full-2022 early totals: CNN/AP/Catalist; 2022 turnout: OnPoint. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH. Counties require at least 50 ballots in both years. Plot positions are clamped at ±15 horizontal and ±30 vertical points; downloads retain exact values. The grey band uses the plotted county universe. Separate tracker totals and 2022 full-period totals are context, not the matched-stage denominators.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-county-nc.csv

Unaffiliated ballots rose 51.2%, Democratic ballots 29.7% and Republican ballots 9.3%. The Democratic lead in the tracked early-voter groups increased from 6.8 points to 11.7.

The occasional-voter share fell from 17.1% to 13.4%. Their ballot count was almost unchanged, up just 1.6%, while the rest of the early electorate grew faster. Among consistent voters, unaffiliated ballots increased 57.0%, Democratic ballots 33.9% and Republican ballots 18.2%.

The decline in the occasional share reached 95 of 100 counties. Wake County’s share fell 4.7 points and Mecklenburg’s 2.3. Both counties also improved the Democratic relative margin, by 3.7 and 8.5 points respectively. The movement toward consistent voters was widespread; the party-margin changes were less uniform, with Democratic improvements in 58 counties.

## Kansas

**Kansas county early voting**

| County | 2022 ballots | 2026 ballots | 2022 occasional share (%) | 2026 occasional share (%) | Occasional-share change (points) | 2022 D minus R (points) | 2026 D minus R (points) | Party-gap change (points) | Unaffiliated-share change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Johnson County | 132759 | 176385 | 12.9 | 9.9 | -3.0 | -6.5 | 2.4 | 8.9 | 5.8 |
| Sedgwick County | 72005 | 92890 | 11.5 | 10.8 | -0.7 | -19.4 | -11.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 |
| Douglas County | 17709 | 23106 | 14.0 | 10.5 | -3.5 | 35.2 | 39.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Shawnee County | 16518 | 22016 | 10.3 | 8.4 | -2.0 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| Wyandotte County | 12964 | 19028 | 13.9 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 44.9 | 44.5 | -0.4 | 6.5 |
| Leavenworth County | 8058 | 9096 | 13.3 | 9.7 | -3.6 | -6.7 | -3.4 | 3.3 | 6.5 |
| Reno County | 6602 | 8119 | 13.3 | 9.2 | -4.0 | -25.0 | -24.2 | 0.8 | 5.1 |
| Riley County | 5795 | 8030 | 13.9 | 12.8 | -1.1 | -1.4 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 6.5 |
| Saline County | 5038 | 7213 | 12.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | -25.3 | -23.4 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| Miami County | 5309 | 5986 | 12.1 | 7.1 | -5.0 | -33.5 | -26.3 | 7.1 | 3.6 |
| Butler County | 4706 | 5393 | 12.9 | 8.4 | -4.4 | -29.9 | -25.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Cowley County | 4606 | 5075 | 13.7 | 8.4 | -5.2 | -27.4 | -26.7 | 0.7 | 4.3 |
| Harvey County | 3797 | 5057 | 12.1 | 9.2 | -2.9 | -12.3 | -8.6 | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Ellis County | 2943 | 3618 | 11.1 | 8.1 | -3.0 | -25.9 | -28.6 | -2.7 | 4.2 |
| Lyon County | 2676 | 3437 | 13.4 | 11.6 | -1.8 | -10.6 | -8.8 | 1.8 | 6.7 |
| Finney County | 1681 | 3173 | 12.1 | 18.6 | 6.4 | -42.5 | -19.6 | 22.9 | 9.7 |
| Ford County | 2038 | 3102 | 11.7 | 20.3 | 8.6 | -41.4 | -18.7 | 22.7 | 9.1 |
| McPherson County | 2018 | 3078 | 10.6 | 8.8 | -1.8 | -47.4 | -31.9 | 15.5 | 3.3 |
| Geary County | 1884 | 2820 | 17.7 | 15.1 | -2.6 | -14.2 | -7.6 | 6.6 | 3.2 |
| Crawford County | 2028 | 2793 | 13.7 | 9.6 | -4.1 | 20.5 | 8.4 | -12.0 | 4.8 |
| Dickinson County | 1369 | 2195 | 12.9 | 8.6 | -4.3 | -48.9 | -48.9 | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| Franklin County | 1882 | 2193 | 12.3 | 8.6 | -3.7 | -23.8 | -16.6 | 7.2 | 5.8 |
| Atchison County | 1323 | 1924 | 14.9 | 7.4 | -7.5 | -14.6 | -16.1 | -1.5 | 4.2 |
| Pottawatomie County | 1694 | 1911 | 13.9 | 9.2 | -4.7 | -33.4 | -34.3 | -0.9 | 3.3 |
| Seward County | 1057 | 1752 | 13.3 | 26.0 | 12.7 | -46.8 | -20.3 | 26.5 | 12.0 |
| Sumner County | 1225 | 1660 | 10.2 | 9.8 | -0.4 | -23.1 | -27.8 | -4.7 | 4.2 |
| Bourbon County | 275 | 1627 | 12.4 | 9.0 | -3.3 | 1.5 | -36.9 | -38.4 | -2.1 |
| Barton County | 2187 | 1590 | 10.9 | 6.9 | -4.0 | -48.1 | -42.4 | 5.7 | 3.9 |
| Montgomery County | 1293 | 1346 | 17.8 | 8.5 | -9.3 | -34.2 | -27.3 | 6.9 | 4.0 |
| Jackson County | 1004 | 1333 | 10.6 | 7.4 | -3.1 | -19.4 | -27.2 | -7.7 | 1.9 |
| Marion County | 1074 | 1234 | 10.9 | 8.5 | -2.4 | -44.5 | -42.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Pratt County | 194 | 1171 | 19.1 | 9.4 | -9.7 | -14.9 | -53.5 | -38.6 | 1.8 |
| Marshall County | 673 | 1170 | 9.2 | 7.1 | -2.1 | -18.9 | -30.2 | -11.3 | 1.4 |
| Thomas County | 1017 | 1115 | 8.1 | 7.3 | -0.8 | -63.9 | -61.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Jefferson County | 1162 | 1073 | 13.9 | 7.4 | -6.6 | -13.1 | -15.3 | -2.2 | 1.6 |
| Rice County | 207 | 1044 | 22.2 | 9.6 | -12.6 | -30.4 | -48.8 | -18.3 | 7.7 |
| Cherokee County | 527 | 1039 | 9.9 | 5.9 | -4.0 | 14.8 | -11.5 | -26.4 | 1.2 |
| Osage County | 765 | 1028 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 0.4 | -22.6 | -25.6 | -3.0 | 4.2 |
| Cloud County | 899 | 982 | 13.7 | 7.8 | -5.8 | -39.5 | -37.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Clay County | 582 | 971 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 0.9 | -56.0 | -61.3 | -5.3 | 2.4 |
| Allen County | 809 | 955 | 12.1 | 6.5 | -5.6 | -29.9 | -33.6 | -3.7 | 6.1 |
| Coffey County | 756 | 900 | 11.1 | 6.1 | -5.0 | -53.4 | -52.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Wabaunsee County | 671 | 823 | 12.4 | 6.0 | -6.4 | -43.5 | -38.6 | 4.9 | 2.8 |
| Morris County | 590 | 773 | 10.2 | 8.2 | -2.0 | -44.4 | -44.0 | 0.4 | 3.2 |
| Labette County | 608 | 771 | 16.4 | 11.4 | -5.0 | -7.1 | -10.9 | -3.8 | 4.3 |
| Russell County | 403 | 770 | 9.4 | 7.5 | -1.9 | -56.6 | -60.3 | -3.7 | 2.2 |
| Neosho County | 244 | 734 | 16.8 | 8.7 | -8.1 | 13.9 | -24.4 | -38.3 | 0.9 |
| Brown County | 562 | 697 | 14.4 | 10.3 | -4.1 | -37.5 | -37.0 | 0.5 | 3.4 |
| Ottawa County | 118 | 650 | 11.9 | 7.5 | -4.3 | -34.7 | -62.5 | -27.7 | 1.8 |
| Mitchell County | 469 | 634 | 9.6 | 7.1 | -2.5 | -56.5 | -57.7 | -1.2 | 0.8 |
| Wilson County | 589 | 623 | 9.0 | 6.6 | -2.4 | -55.3 | -55.2 | 0.1 | -0.4 |
| Pawnee County | 523 | 598 | 12.4 | 8.5 | -3.9 | -43.2 | -47.3 | -4.1 | 3.6 |
| Sherman County | 106 | 589 | 19.8 | 8.5 | -11.3 | -54.7 | -59.9 | -5.2 | -2.7 |
| Ellsworth County | 428 | 575 | 10.3 | 9.9 | -0.4 | -39.0 | -38.1 | 0.9 | 5.0 |
| Anderson County | 553 | 568 | 11.8 | 8.6 | -3.1 | -33.3 | -26.4 | 6.9 | 4.1 |
| Nemaha County | 624 | 558 | 12.7 | 9.3 | -3.3 | -37.0 | -42.1 | -5.1 | 3.4 |
| Phillips County | 322 | 550 | 15.8 | 10.9 | -4.9 | -64.9 | -75.5 | -10.5 | -1.2 |
| Grant County | 421 | 547 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 0.4 | -73.6 | -64.7 | 8.9 | 3.6 |
| Kingman County | 441 | 540 | 15.0 | 8.7 | -6.3 | -47.4 | -45.6 | 1.8 | 4.3 |
| Stafford County | 329 | 514 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 | -58.7 | -59.3 | -0.7 | 4.0 |
| Meade County | 219 | 505 | 9.6 | 13.9 | 4.3 | -71.7 | -75.4 | -3.8 | 3.2 |
| Gray County | 384 | 504 | 9.9 | 8.5 | -1.4 | -62.8 | -54.6 | 8.2 | 1.9 |
| Linn County | 163 | 504 | 19.0 | 7.1 | -11.9 | 0.6 | -50.0 | -50.6 | 4.0 |
| Chase County | 407 | 466 | 11.5 | 7.7 | -3.8 | -46.9 | -47.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Greenwood County | 142 | 459 | 21.8 | 7.6 | -14.2 | -41.5 | -46.8 | -5.3 | 5.4 |
| Ness County | 436 | 451 | 10.8 | 7.1 | -3.7 | -69.0 | -65.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Republic County | 435 | 451 | 7.4 | 7.3 | -0.0 | -53.3 | -51.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Trego County | 315 | 448 | 9.5 | 4.9 | -4.6 | -44.8 | -54.7 | -9.9 | 2.0 |
| Scott County | 227 | 435 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 2.2 | -68.7 | -71.7 | -3.0 | 3.2 |
| Harper County | 294 | 420 | 15.3 | 12.9 | -2.4 | -45.6 | -50.2 | -4.7 | 2.6 |
| Barber County | 333 | 386 | 7.2 | 5.4 | -1.8 | -67.6 | -69.7 | -2.1 | 2.8 |
| Washington County | 437 | 383 | 12.1 | 3.1 | -9.0 | -73.0 | -65.3 | 7.7 | -0.3 |
| Lincoln County | 257 | 344 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 0.2 | -52.9 | -61.3 | -8.4 | -0.3 |
| Norton County | 267 | 327 | 13.5 | 9.2 | -4.3 | -56.6 | -49.8 | 6.7 | 5.0 |
| Graham County | 295 | 326 | 11.5 | 7.4 | -4.2 | -62.4 | -61.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Doniphan County | 273 | 325 | 11.4 | 8.9 | -2.4 | -51.3 | -44.9 | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| Haskell County | 187 | 296 | 9.6 | 9.5 | -0.2 | -77.5 | -71.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| Stevens County | 174 | 283 | 14.9 | 10.6 | -4.3 | -75.9 | -69.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 |
| Logan County | 220 | 277 | 9.1 | 4.3 | -4.8 | -62.3 | -71.8 | -9.6 | 3.7 |
| Decatur County | 232 | 271 | 12.9 | 10.0 | -3.0 | -57.8 | -67.9 | -10.1 | -0.0 |
| Rooks County | 232 | 264 | 14.7 | 8.0 | -6.7 | -50.9 | -62.9 | -12.0 | -1.5 |
| Kearny County | 97 | 249 | 7.2 | 5.2 | -2.0 | -87.6 | -77.9 | 9.7 | 0.3 |
| Rush County | 273 | 249 | 15.8 | 4.8 | -10.9 | -60.8 | -50.6 | 10.2 | 0.2 |
| Jewell County | 263 | 240 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 0.1 | -71.5 | -67.9 | 3.6 | 6.5 |
| Osborne County | 213 | 231 | 8.5 | 4.8 | -3.7 | -35.7 | -42.9 | -7.2 | 2.1 |
| Rawlins County | 233 | 222 | 9.9 | 7.2 | -2.7 | -71.7 | -71.2 | 0.5 | 3.9 |
| Smith County | 257 | 220 | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | -69.6 | -58.6 | 11.0 | 0.3 |
| Hamilton County | 148 | 208 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 1.1 | -75.7 | -75.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Wichita County | 146 | 206 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 2.9 | -53.4 | -64.6 | -11.1 | -1.2 |
| Chautauqua County | 204 | 204 | 14.2 | 5.4 | -8.8 | -49.0 | -52.9 | -3.9 | 0.0 |
| Woodson County | 175 | 200 | 12.0 | 4.5 | -7.5 | -57.1 | -67.0 | -9.9 | 3.9 |
| Elk County | 189 | 191 | 12.2 | 6.8 | -5.4 | -61.9 | -60.7 | 1.2 | 5.7 |
| Sheridan County | 179 | 178 | 14.5 | 6.2 | -8.3 | -60.3 | -69.7 | -9.3 | 4.0 |
| Wallace County | 146 | 170 | 11.6 | 5.3 | -6.3 | -81.5 | -84.7 | -3.2 | -1.3 |
| Edwards County | 155 | 160 | 12.3 | 5.6 | -6.6 | -42.6 | -40.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Morton County | 171 | 146 | 13.5 | 15.8 | 2.3 | -72.5 | -75.3 | -2.8 | 3.9 |
| Clark County | 164 | 126 | 9.8 | 7.9 | -1.8 | -59.1 | -60.3 | -1.2 | 0.5 |
| Kiowa County | 118 | 105 | 22.0 | 1.9 | -20.1 | -63.6 | -61.0 | 2.6 | -2.7 |
| Greeley County | 103 | 97 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 4.5 | -84.5 | -79.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 |
| Comanche County | 58 | 93 | 20.7 | 10.8 | -9.9 | -65.5 | -44.1 | 21.4 | -0.0 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Separate tracker totals: UF Election Lab, CNN/AP/Catalist and NBC News/TargetSmart. Full-2022 early totals: CNN/AP/Catalist; 2022 turnout: OnPoint. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH. Counties require at least 50 ballots in both years. Plot positions are clamped at ±15 horizontal and ±30 vertical points; downloads retain exact values. The grey band uses the plotted county universe. Separate tracker totals and 2022 full-period totals are context, not the matched-stage denominators.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-county-ks.csv

Kansas’s unaffiliated early ballots rose 87.5%, compared with 33.5% for Democrats and 16.6% for Republicans. Republicans retained a lead in this tracked count, but it narrowed from 10.8 points to 4.6.

Occasional voters’ share fell from 12.5% to 10.2%, even though their ballot count increased 7.6%. Consistent unaffiliated ballots rose 91.3%; the corresponding Democratic and Republican increases were 39.0% and 21.0%.

Johnson and Sedgwick, the two largest counties in this snapshot, improved the Democratic relative margin by 8.9 and 8.2 points. Their occasional-voter shares declined. Across the 100 counties with enough ballots for a dot in both years, 86 had a smaller occasional share and 54 improved the Democratic margin. Smaller counties outside that plotting threshold still contribute their available records to the statewide sums.

Kansas uses November 2, 2026 versus November 7, 2022, one day before each election. The other five county panels use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, two days before each election.

## Michigan

**Michigan county early voting**

| County | 2022 ballots | 2026 ballots | 2022 occasional share (%) | 2026 occasional share (%) | Occasional-share change (points) | 2022 D minus R (points) | 2026 D minus R (points) | Party-gap change (points) | Unaffiliated-share change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wayne County | 231077 | 362474 | 16.9 | 12.1 | -4.8 | 25.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 | 4.9 |
| Oakland County | 232759 | 350463 | 15.8 | 9.7 | -6.2 | 5.7 | 4.7 | -1.0 | 1.2 |
| Macomb County | 130145 | 205287 | 15.1 | 10.5 | -4.6 | -6.4 | -8.8 | -2.3 | 4.8 |
| Kent County | 98289 | 158019 | 17.2 | 10.0 | -7.2 | -3.4 | -4.4 | -1.0 | 1.8 |
| Washtenaw County | 70868 | 108760 | 19.6 | 15.2 | -4.4 | 24.9 | 25.6 | 0.7 | 3.4 |
| Genesee County | 58364 | 87797 | 15.5 | 8.6 | -6.9 | 12.3 | 8.8 | -3.6 | 1.0 |
| Ottawa County | 46997 | 75682 | 15.2 | 8.8 | -6.4 | -25.1 | -26.4 | -1.3 | 1.8 |
| Ingham County | 50569 | 71464 | 17.9 | 11.7 | -6.2 | 19.0 | 17.9 | -1.1 | 1.9 |
| Livingston County | 39298 | 62772 | 14.8 | 7.2 | -7.6 | -21.6 | -25.9 | -4.3 | -0.0 |
| Kalamazoo County | 42493 | 60404 | 16.5 | 9.7 | -6.8 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 2.6 | -0.1 |
| St. Clair County | 23756 | 39902 | 15.0 | 8.2 | -6.8 | -19.8 | -26.2 | -6.4 | 2.4 |
| Monroe County | 21234 | 34868 | 15.3 | 8.7 | -6.6 | -9.6 | -16.3 | -6.6 | 3.4 |
| Muskegon County | 25025 | 33653 | 15.4 | 8.1 | -7.2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | -1.3 | 1.1 |
| Saginaw County | 26689 | 33408 | 13.7 | 7.9 | -5.8 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Allegan County | 17057 | 31218 | 16.4 | 9.1 | -7.3 | -20.1 | -25.1 | -5.0 | 2.3 |
| Jackson County | 20140 | 30556 | 15.9 | 8.3 | -7.6 | -17.0 | -19.8 | -2.8 | 1.2 |
| Grand Traverse County | 20346 | 30494 | 16.3 | 8.3 | -8.1 | -11.2 | -11.4 | -0.2 | -2.0 |
| Berrien County | 20996 | 30119 | 17.2 | 10.7 | -6.5 | -16.6 | -14.7 | 1.9 | 4.7 |
| Eaton County | 19959 | 26132 | 14.3 | 7.1 | -7.2 | -4.1 | -2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Calhoun County | 14458 | 22139 | 15.1 | 10.0 | -5.1 | -9.8 | -11.8 | -2.0 | 4.9 |
| Lapeer County | 12803 | 22011 | 13.7 | 7.6 | -6.2 | -24.1 | -29.4 | -5.3 | 3.4 |
| Bay County | 17551 | 21884 | 13.7 | 7.4 | -6.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | -2.6 | 2.0 |
| Clinton County | 14781 | 21201 | 14.9 | 7.9 | -6.9 | -13.8 | -14.8 | -1.0 | 1.9 |
| Midland County | 12955 | 18890 | 16.8 | 8.6 | -8.2 | -14.3 | -15.7 | -1.3 | 0.5 |
| Lenawee County | 12852 | 18723 | 14.7 | 8.7 | -6.0 | -16.1 | -16.8 | -0.6 | 3.4 |
| Marquette County | 11463 | 16747 | 15.9 | 9.0 | -6.9 | 13.8 | 11.8 | -2.0 | 2.0 |
| Barry County | 8694 | 14841 | 14.9 | 7.5 | -7.4 | -16.5 | -21.5 | -5.0 | 3.8 |
| Van Buren County | 9840 | 13477 | 15.9 | 8.9 | -7.1 | -17.8 | -16.7 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Shiawassee County | 9518 | 13387 | 14.2 | 7.8 | -6.4 | -7.5 | -12.5 | -5.0 | 2.4 |
| Isabella County | 6883 | 10718 | 16.9 | 10.8 | -6.1 | -6.8 | -5.7 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| Tuscola County | 6140 | 10128 | 14.3 | 7.5 | -6.8 | -19.9 | -27.2 | -7.3 | 4.9 |
| Montcalm County | 7136 | 9777 | 15.3 | 7.3 | -8.0 | -24.7 | -25.1 | -0.4 | 3.6 |
| Ionia County | 7196 | 9733 | 16.7 | 7.4 | -9.3 | -14.5 | -16.0 | -1.5 | 2.3 |
| Emmet County | 7569 | 9529 | 17.6 | 8.0 | -9.6 | -10.5 | -11.8 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| St. Joseph County | 6209 | 9185 | 16.2 | 10.2 | -6.0 | -27.1 | -29.1 | -2.0 | 6.0 |
| Leelanau County | 6915 | 9015 | 14.6 | 6.9 | -7.8 | -9.0 | -8.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Cass County | 5549 | 8861 | 16.2 | 10.4 | -5.8 | -25.2 | -29.5 | -4.4 | 9.0 |
| Antrim County | 5111 | 8277 | 15.3 | 7.8 | -7.5 | -15.8 | -23.1 | -7.3 | -1.0 |
| Mecosta County | 5569 | 7862 | 15.1 | 8.2 | -6.8 | -21.5 | -21.5 | -0.0 | 2.4 |
| Delta County | 5415 | 7600 | 15.2 | 8.2 | -7.1 | 6.1 | -2.9 | -9.1 | 1.7 |
| Roscommon County | 5364 | 7534 | 14.9 | 7.2 | -7.7 | -21.3 | -26.0 | -4.7 | 1.4 |
| Newaygo County | 5304 | 7345 | 17.3 | 7.7 | -9.5 | -17.3 | -22.8 | -5.5 | 2.6 |
| Branch County | 4557 | 7068 | 17.1 | 12.2 | -4.9 | -30.4 | -30.9 | -0.5 | 6.1 |
| Charlevoix County | 5498 | 6717 | 15.6 | 7.2 | -8.4 | -11.1 | -13.8 | -2.7 | 0.6 |
| Hillsdale County | 4609 | 6536 | 17.2 | 9.2 | -8.0 | -33.5 | -37.5 | -3.9 | 6.0 |
| Sanilac County | 5052 | 6515 | 16.1 | 7.4 | -8.7 | -26.2 | -32.7 | -6.5 | 3.4 |
| Huron County | 4176 | 6510 | 15.8 | 7.4 | -8.4 | -26.4 | -34.9 | -8.4 | 3.0 |
| Benzie County | 4107 | 6236 | 14.5 | 7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.5 | -3.6 | -0.6 |
| Mason County | 4103 | 6063 | 17.1 | 7.7 | -9.4 | -7.6 | -9.6 | -2.1 | -1.7 |
| Clare County | 3944 | 6009 | 17.1 | 8.6 | -8.5 | -19.0 | -24.6 | -5.6 | 2.6 |
| Houghton County | 4228 | 5995 | 17.5 | 10.2 | -7.2 | 9.8 | 2.7 | -7.0 | 2.7 |
| Manistee County | 4598 | 5888 | 15.0 | 7.6 | -7.4 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Chippewa County | 4373 | 5866 | 16.4 | 9.2 | -7.2 | -4.8 | -9.6 | -4.8 | 2.3 |
| Otsego County | 3851 | 5808 | 16.2 | 8.1 | -8.0 | -13.0 | -19.2 | -6.2 | 1.7 |
| Iosco County | 4727 | 5807 | 14.8 | 7.0 | -7.8 | -4.0 | -10.7 | -6.8 | 2.6 |
| Alpena County | 4563 | 5618 | 16.5 | 7.7 | -8.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 | -4.4 | 3.2 |
| Cheboygan County | 4444 | 5610 | 14.9 | 6.9 | -8.0 | -11.9 | -16.1 | -4.2 | 1.2 |
| Dickinson County | 3457 | 5316 | 15.2 | 9.4 | -5.8 | -5.7 | -11.6 | -5.9 | 5.5 |
| Gratiot County | 3784 | 5118 | 16.3 | 8.8 | -7.5 | -17.4 | -19.5 | -2.1 | 2.0 |
| Wexford County | 3646 | 5060 | 18.0 | 9.8 | -8.2 | -18.2 | -18.8 | -0.7 | 1.7 |
| Oceana County | 3449 | 4973 | 15.2 | 9.3 | -5.9 | -13.7 | -17.3 | -3.6 | 3.8 |
| Gladwin County | 3789 | 4953 | 14.8 | 6.3 | -8.5 | -11.2 | -18.8 | -7.6 | 4.2 |
| Kalkaska County | 2425 | 4569 | 15.8 | 8.1 | -7.7 | -21.0 | -28.3 | -7.3 | 5.0 |
| Ogemaw County | 2569 | 3999 | 15.1 | 8.2 | -6.9 | -8.1 | -14.0 | -5.9 | 3.5 |
| Menominee County | 3049 | 3816 | 19.1 | 9.3 | -9.8 | 6.7 | -2.2 | -9.0 | 6.5 |
| Osceola County | 2434 | 3437 | 16.3 | 7.6 | -8.7 | -28.8 | -34.0 | -5.2 | 5.0 |
| Presque Isle County | 2253 | 3363 | 16.9 | 7.5 | -9.4 | -3.4 | -11.5 | -8.2 | 4.2 |
| Crawford County | 2191 | 3343 | 18.5 | 9.0 | -9.5 | -15.7 | -21.1 | -5.4 | 4.8 |
| Iron County | 1652 | 2671 | 18.5 | 11.6 | -6.9 | 2.8 | -8.2 | -11.0 | 9.7 |
| Arenac County | 1807 | 2570 | 14.9 | 8.0 | -6.9 | -8.9 | -15.0 | -6.1 | 3.3 |
| Mackinac County | 2004 | 2360 | 16.6 | 7.1 | -9.5 | -9.0 | -14.3 | -5.3 | 0.6 |
| Alcona County | 1767 | 2332 | 14.9 | 7.3 | -7.7 | -12.2 | -21.2 | -9.0 | 5.4 |
| Missaukee County | 1728 | 2310 | 15.5 | 6.1 | -9.3 | -31.8 | -32.5 | -0.6 | 2.0 |
| Gogebic County | 1760 | 2266 | 16.6 | 9.4 | -7.2 | 7.4 | -0.3 | -7.8 | 8.8 |
| Montmorency County | 1565 | 2168 | 15.3 | 7.1 | -8.3 | -14.8 | -22.4 | -7.7 | 5.0 |
| Lake County | 1506 | 2097 | 18.0 | 7.9 | -10.1 | -8.8 | -14.0 | -5.2 | 5.6 |
| Oscoda County | 1183 | 1758 | 17.4 | 7.9 | -9.5 | -15.6 | -21.6 | -6.0 | 5.3 |
| Schoolcraft County | 1064 | 1664 | 18.7 | 12.0 | -6.7 | -5.5 | -12.9 | -7.4 | 5.9 |
| Alger County | 1353 | 1625 | 16.5 | 8.3 | -8.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | -2.1 | 2.0 |
| Baraga County | 1064 | 1593 | 17.6 | 7.2 | -10.4 | -3.0 | -9.4 | -6.3 | 3.1 |
| Ontonagon County | 1036 | 1281 | 14.6 | 8.2 | -6.4 | -4.1 | -13.1 | -9.1 | 9.5 |
| Luce County | 685 | 814 | 17.4 | 8.2 | -9.1 | -20.6 | -26.5 | -6.0 | 1.4 |
| Keweenaw County | 438 | 491 | 15.5 | 10.8 | -4.7 | 14.4 | 10.4 | -4.0 | 2.4 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Separate tracker totals: UF Election Lab, CNN/AP/Catalist and NBC News/TargetSmart. Full-2022 early totals: CNN/AP/Catalist; 2022 turnout: OnPoint. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH. Counties require at least 50 ballots in both years. Plot positions are clamped at ±15 horizontal and ±30 vertical points; downloads retain exact values. The grey band uses the plotted county universe. Separate tracker totals and 2022 full-period totals are context, not the matched-stage denominators.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-county-mi.csv

Michigan combines strong unaffiliated growth with faster Republican growth than Democratic growth. Unaffiliated ballots increased 66.4%, Republican ballots 50.1% and Democratic ballots 41.4%.

The modelled Democratic lead of 1.2 points in the 2022 comparison became a Republican lead of 1.0 point. Republican relative gains appeared in 75 of the 83 counties. Wayne, Oakland and Macomb all moved in that direction, by about 3.0, 1.0 and 2.3 points respectively.

Michigan also had the largest decline in the occasional-voter share, from 16.1% to 9.9%. Every county had a decline. Here, the occasional ballot count fell as well, by 7.1%. Consistent unaffiliated ballots more than doubled, rising 116.5%, alongside increases of 57.5% for consistent Republicans and 45.1% for consistent Democrats.

Michigan’s party labels are modelled, so these comparisons depend on the source’s classification as well as who voted early.

## Ohio

**Ohio county early voting**

| County | 2022 ballots | 2026 ballots | 2022 occasional share (%) | 2026 occasional share (%) | Occasional-share change (points) | 2022 D minus R (points) | 2026 D minus R (points) | Party-gap change (points) | Unaffiliated-share change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cuyahoga County | 139042 | 159836 | 11.0 | 10.6 | -0.4 | 32.8 | 30.2 | -2.6 | 11.8 |
| Franklin County | 133198 | 159785 | 14.9 | 13.4 | -1.5 | 24.0 | 23.7 | -0.3 | 10.8 |
| Hamilton County | 88194 | 116551 | 13.2 | 11.8 | -1.4 | 18.3 | 19.3 | 1.0 | 13.2 |
| Summit County | 60412 | 76535 | 13.6 | 11.3 | -2.2 | 21.2 | 18.5 | -2.7 | 9.4 |
| Montgomery County | 50573 | 65148 | 12.7 | 11.4 | -1.3 | 15.1 | 17.4 | 2.3 | 11.0 |
| Lucas County | 40411 | 59172 | 12.6 | 11.0 | -1.6 | 26.6 | 19.2 | -7.5 | 7.3 |
| Butler County | 33906 | 56415 | 12.9 | 11.5 | -1.4 | -11.3 | -10.6 | 0.8 | 7.4 |
| Lorain County | 39459 | 53224 | 13.8 | 10.6 | -3.2 | 14.3 | 13.9 | -0.4 | 7.3 |
| Stark County | 38825 | 51511 | 11.9 | 10.4 | -1.5 | 4.6 | 3.5 | -1.1 | 6.6 |
| Warren County | 37473 | 49490 | 17.3 | 11.6 | -5.7 | -14.1 | -15.6 | -1.5 | 8.9 |
| Delaware County | 32486 | 45883 | 18.4 | 12.9 | -5.5 | -3.9 | -1.7 | 2.1 | 7.3 |
| Lake County | 31948 | 40630 | 12.6 | 9.8 | -2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 11.7 |
| Medina County | 29181 | 39840 | 14.0 | 9.6 | -4.4 | -5.5 | -5.7 | -0.2 | 3.4 |
| Greene County | 22058 | 32962 | 14.7 | 11.2 | -3.6 | -15.0 | -9.3 | 5.6 | 17.5 |
| Mahoning County | 27658 | 32278 | 11.2 | 9.1 | -2.2 | 24.4 | 16.2 | -8.1 | 10.4 |
| Clermont County | 23941 | 31242 | 14.9 | 11.3 | -3.6 | -16.3 | -15.6 | 0.6 | 7.2 |
| Licking County | 22788 | 29983 | 14.1 | 10.7 | -3.4 | -11.6 | -10.1 | 1.5 | 10.5 |
| Trumbull County | 21149 | 28902 | 10.9 | 9.4 | -1.5 | 23.3 | 11.5 | -11.8 | 12.2 |
| Fairfield County | 19837 | 27949 | 13.9 | 10.7 | -3.2 | -15.1 | -10.7 | 4.5 | 9.9 |
| Portage County | 17076 | 22591 | 14.5 | 10.7 | -3.8 | 12.1 | 8.0 | -4.1 | 4.9 |
| Wood County | 13432 | 20729 | 12.7 | 11.0 | -1.8 | 4.2 | 0.6 | -3.6 | 7.7 |
| Miami County | 14205 | 20411 | 12.8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | -23.4 | -20.9 | 2.4 | 6.2 |
| Richland County | 13668 | 19358 | 11.3 | 9.0 | -2.3 | -14.2 | -15.8 | -1.6 | 2.5 |
| Clark County | 13841 | 18889 | 11.3 | 9.9 | -1.3 | -3.7 | -5.4 | -1.7 | 7.9 |
| Geauga County | 14560 | 18454 | 13.8 | 9.6 | -4.3 | -18.8 | -12.6 | 6.3 | 10.9 |
| Wayne County | 11549 | 16396 | 13.0 | 9.2 | -3.8 | -8.5 | -12.7 | -4.2 | 8.1 |
| Union County | 9728 | 15223 | 17.6 | 13.1 | -4.5 | -23.0 | -22.8 | 0.2 | 8.8 |
| Erie County | 10199 | 13965 | 12.7 | 9.4 | -3.4 | 7.9 | 0.9 | -7.0 | 10.9 |
| Hancock County | 7391 | 12650 | 12.9 | 10.1 | -2.8 | -26.6 | -28.9 | -2.3 | 8.6 |
| Muskingum County | 10141 | 12405 | 10.7 | 9.0 | -1.7 | -15.9 | -14.3 | 1.6 | 12.0 |
| Tuscarawas County | 9506 | 11723 | 10.5 | 9.5 | -1.0 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -3.0 | 6.5 |
| Allen County | 8642 | 11514 | 11.2 | 9.6 | -1.6 | -20.9 | -15.1 | 5.8 | 15.2 |
| Washington County | 9159 | 11489 | 11.5 | 8.5 | -3.0 | -19.4 | -23.1 | -3.7 | 2.6 |
| Ross County | 8434 | 11381 | 12.3 | 10.0 | -2.3 | -6.7 | -10.1 | -3.4 | 6.1 |
| Logan County | 7470 | 11006 | 12.0 | 9.1 | -2.9 | -33.3 | -29.1 | 4.2 | 12.4 |
| Knox County | 7685 | 10897 | 13.5 | 9.6 | -3.9 | -19.9 | -23.8 | -3.9 | 1.7 |
| Ashtabula County | 8319 | 10381 | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.4 | 3.8 | 0.5 | -3.2 | 6.2 |
| Columbiana County | 7989 | 10282 | 13.9 | 9.7 | -4.2 | -6.4 | -17.6 | -11.2 | 0.5 |
| Marion County | 7301 | 9751 | 11.1 | 9.2 | -1.9 | -13.7 | -16.3 | -2.6 | 9.8 |
| Belmont County | 9108 | 9669 | 9.5 | 7.8 | -1.6 | -4.9 | -17.9 | -13.0 | 2.1 |
| Jefferson County | 7349 | 9169 | 11.2 | 8.3 | -2.8 | 8.1 | -10.2 | -18.3 | 8.6 |
| Ashland County | 6522 | 8821 | 12.0 | 8.8 | -3.2 | -28.8 | -27.1 | 1.7 | 9.0 |
| Athens County | 6204 | 8595 | 15.1 | 13.7 | -1.4 | 30.5 | 29.4 | -1.1 | 10.2 |
| Mercer County | 6050 | 8198 | 11.2 | 8.0 | -3.2 | -37.2 | -31.2 | 6.0 | 16.3 |
| Pickaway County | 6051 | 7912 | 13.9 | 10.9 | -3.0 | -21.8 | -23.7 | -1.9 | 4.5 |
| Ottawa County | 2004 | 7905 | 10.4 | 8.2 | -2.1 | -7.5 | -5.9 | 1.6 | 12.7 |
| Huron County | 6027 | 7860 | 11.9 | 9.7 | -2.2 | -5.4 | -13.3 | -8.0 | 5.8 |
| Darke County | 5633 | 7835 | 11.4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | -32.3 | -28.9 | 3.4 | 13.6 |
| Scioto County | 6187 | 7779 | 11.3 | 10.6 | -0.7 | -16.5 | -16.6 | -0.1 | 9.6 |
| Shelby County | 5360 | 7565 | 12.0 | 8.6 | -3.3 | -31.7 | -31.9 | -0.2 | 8.1 |
| Madison County | 5013 | 7549 | 12.6 | 11.0 | -1.6 | -24.0 | -23.9 | 0.1 | 6.6 |
| Sandusky County | 3394 | 7203 | 16.4 | 9.3 | -7.1 | -5.8 | -4.9 | 0.9 | -1.3 |
| Defiance County | 5315 | 7120 | 10.3 | 8.9 | -1.4 | -18.2 | -17.1 | 1.1 | 14.0 |
| Auglaize County | 4596 | 6798 | 12.1 | 7.8 | -4.2 | -29.1 | -29.7 | -0.5 | 9.8 |
| Champaign County | 4625 | 6677 | 13.1 | 9.5 | -3.6 | -25.5 | -27.0 | -1.5 | 5.3 |
| Preble County | 3583 | 6606 | 13.2 | 8.6 | -4.6 | -29.7 | -35.8 | -6.0 | 6.0 |
| Seneca County | 4703 | 6470 | 12.6 | 9.0 | -3.6 | -15.5 | -15.7 | -0.1 | 14.7 |
| Clinton County | 4576 | 6459 | 13.2 | 8.8 | -4.4 | -27.9 | -28.4 | -0.5 | 5.9 |
| Fulton County | 4554 | 6355 | 12.3 | 8.7 | -3.6 | -18.7 | -16.9 | 1.7 | 10.6 |
| Putnam County | 4696 | 6223 | 9.8 | 7.1 | -2.7 | -38.2 | -45.6 | -7.5 | 1.8 |
| Lawrence County | 4187 | 6218 | 13.7 | 10.0 | -3.7 | -25.6 | -22.5 | 3.1 | 14.8 |
| Coshocton County | 4504 | 5780 | 10.5 | 7.3 | -3.1 | -33.1 | -29.8 | 3.3 | 8.9 |
| Crawford County | 5303 | 5731 | 12.4 | 8.5 | -3.9 | -24.9 | -23.0 | 1.8 | 10.6 |
| Brown County | 4277 | 5711 | 13.4 | 10.2 | -3.2 | -19.5 | -32.6 | -13.1 | 0.0 |
| Jackson County | 3686 | 5590 | 10.3 | 10.1 | -0.1 | -33.6 | -29.2 | 4.5 | 6.7 |
| Van Wert County | 4264 | 5440 | 10.1 | 8.3 | -1.8 | -43.6 | -38.1 | 5.5 | 13.7 |
| Highland County | 4298 | 5379 | 12.6 | 10.9 | -1.7 | -25.2 | -30.1 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
| Perry County | 3828 | 5070 | 12.4 | 9.5 | -2.9 | -17.2 | -22.0 | -4.8 | 5.6 |
| Morrow County | 3075 | 4959 | 12.7 | 9.7 | -3.0 | -27.6 | -27.5 | 0.1 | 12.3 |
| Hocking County | 4009 | 4944 | 10.9 | 8.5 | -2.4 | -14.8 | -15.9 | -1.1 | 8.8 |
| Williams County | 3459 | 4874 | 11.8 | 8.5 | -3.3 | -24.2 | -26.3 | -2.1 | 5.8 |
| Guernsey County | 3958 | 4729 | 12.5 | 9.2 | -3.3 | -18.4 | -18.5 | -0.1 | 9.7 |
| Adams County | 2957 | 4554 | 14.2 | 10.1 | -4.0 | -33.4 | -42.7 | -9.3 | -2.0 |
| Henry County | 100 | 4455 | 23.0 | 9.2 | -13.8 | -3.0 | -26.3 | -23.3 | -20.6 |
| Pike County | 3252 | 4014 | 12.5 | 11.1 | -1.4 | -3.7 | -14.4 | -10.7 | -0.1 |
| Wyandot County | 792 | 3747 | 11.2 | 8.6 | -2.6 | -15.2 | -27.2 | -12.1 | 7.7 |
| Fayette County | 2483 | 3633 | 14.2 | 10.6 | -3.6 | -28.4 | -30.0 | -1.6 | 8.3 |
| Carroll County | 2790 | 3549 | 11.8 | 8.7 | -3.1 | -18.4 | -19.2 | -0.8 | 8.8 |
| Holmes County | 2582 | 3534 | 14.1 | 8.1 | -6.0 | -29.6 | -32.4 | -2.8 | 3.9 |
| Hardin County | 2918 | 3449 | 11.1 | 9.3 | -1.8 | -32.0 | -30.8 | 1.3 | 9.4 |
| Gallia County | 3144 | 3445 | 11.0 | 8.5 | -2.6 | -40.5 | -37.9 | 2.6 | 10.0 |
| Paulding County | 2435 | 2962 | 9.9 | 9.2 | -0.7 | -27.7 | -27.3 | 0.4 | 10.4 |
| Meigs County | 2184 | 2817 | 12.2 | 8.2 | -4.0 | -34.1 | -33.4 | 0.7 | 8.0 |
| Morgan County | 1939 | 2258 | 12.0 | 8.1 | -3.9 | -45.0 | -37.8 | 7.2 | 9.9 |
| Monroe County | 1858 | 2061 | 8.8 | 7.0 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -12.6 | -11.2 | 15.1 |
| Noble County | 1834 | 1988 | 8.2 | 7.6 | -0.6 | -25.2 | -33.2 | -8.0 | 12.6 |
| Vinton County | 1267 | 1839 | 11.6 | 8.3 | -3.3 | -23.8 | -27.0 | -3.3 | 7.0 |
| Harrison County | 1483 | 1770 | 9.8 | 7.8 | -2.0 | -13.8 | -19.0 | -5.2 | 10.7 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Separate tracker totals: UF Election Lab, CNN/AP/Catalist and NBC News/TargetSmart. Full-2022 early totals: CNN/AP/Catalist; 2022 turnout: OnPoint. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH. Counties require at least 50 ballots in both years. Plot positions are clamped at ±15 horizontal and ±30 vertical points; downloads retain exact values. The grey band uses the plotted county universe. Separate tracker totals and 2022 full-period totals are context, not the matched-stage denominators.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-county-oh.csv

Ohio’s unaffiliated category increased 65.6%, much faster than Republican growth of 16.6% or Democratic growth of 9.3%. Among consistent voters, the increases were 80.8%, 19.7% and 10.4%, respectively.

Democrats retained a lead in the tracked early-voter groups, but it narrowed from 4.5 points to 2.1. Democrats improved their relative margin in 33 of the 88 counties. Cuyahoga moved 2.6 points toward Republicans relative to 2022, Franklin 0.3 points, while Hamilton improved the Democratic margin by 1.0 point.

The occasional-voter share fell in all 88 counties. Statewide, it went from 13.1% to 10.7%, even as the occasional ballot count rose 8.7%.

Ohio’s labels come from last-primary participation. The unaffiliated group therefore includes people without the qualifying party-primary record; it should not be read as a direct count of politically undecided voters.

## Iowa, through November 1

**Iowa county early voting, through November 1**

| County | 2022 ballots | 2026 ballots | 2022 occasional share (%) | 2026 occasional share (%) | Occasional-share change (points) | 2022 D minus R (points) | 2026 D minus R (points) | Party-gap change (points) | Unaffiliated-share change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Polk County | 51109 | 67194 | 10.6 | 9.5 | -1.1 | 43.3 | 34.5 | -8.8 | 4.9 |
| Linn County | 26919 | 35117 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 0.4 | 34.0 | 30.2 | -3.8 | 3.5 |
| Johnson County | 23648 | 33239 | 14.2 | 13.6 | -0.6 | 59.2 | 53.5 | -5.7 | 4.8 |
| Scott County | 22365 | 29734 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 0.1 | 19.8 | 15.8 | -4.0 | 3.6 |
| Dubuque County | 12454 | 17322 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -0.3 | 32.1 | 22.2 | -9.9 | 4.5 |
| Black Hawk County | 14049 | 17277 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 0.5 | 26.4 | 26.2 | -0.2 | 4.5 |
| Dallas County | 12995 | 16762 | 13.3 | 9.7 | -3.6 | 16.2 | 9.9 | -6.3 | 3.3 |
| Story County | 9766 | 13804 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 0.3 | 38.1 | 26.9 | -11.2 | 5.4 |
| Woodbury County | 9568 | 11880 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 4.5 |
| Pottawattamie County | 6032 | 9819 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 1.5 | 16.2 | 2.4 | -13.8 | 4.5 |
| Warren County | 6299 | 9799 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 15.6 | 3.4 | -12.3 | 4.5 |
| Clinton County | 5333 | 7661 | 8.2 | 8.0 | -0.1 | 23.6 | 10.0 | -13.6 | 7.3 |
| Cerro Gordo County | 5256 | 6601 | 8.3 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 14.6 | 12.7 | -1.9 | 4.3 |
| Marshall County | 4046 | 6180 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 2.6 | -4.3 | 4.9 |
| Des Moines County | 4011 | 5664 | 8.2 | 7.9 | -0.3 | 32.2 | 18.5 | -13.7 | 4.9 |
| Jasper County | 3959 | 5562 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 19.3 | 3.5 | -15.8 | 4.4 |
| Muscatine County | 3911 | 5526 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Winneshiek County | 4017 | 5308 | 9.4 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | -0.2 | 5.8 |
| Boone County | 3555 | 4880 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 0.1 | 13.6 | 2.4 | -11.2 | 5.8 |
| Dickinson County | 2814 | 4789 | 8.7 | 8.7 | -0.0 | -22.4 | -30.6 | -8.2 | 3.9 |
| Marion County | 3322 | 4785 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 2.6 | -5.4 | -16.3 | -10.9 | 4.5 |
| Lee County | 3250 | 4441 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 0.6 | 26.4 | 15.4 | -10.9 | 5.1 |
| Bremer County | 2919 | 4116 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 9.1 | 3.4 | -5.8 | 5.5 |
| Webster County | 2885 | 4071 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 16.8 | 2.7 | -14.2 | 2.9 |
| Plymouth County | 2326 | 3729 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 1.0 | -29.8 | -37.1 | -7.3 | 4.1 |
| Wapello County | 2827 | 3687 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 0.8 | 23.2 | 10.9 | -12.2 | 4.8 |
| Washington County | 2422 | 3679 | 7.8 | 7.6 | -0.2 | -5.5 | -8.9 | -3.4 | 3.3 |
| Jefferson County | 2782 | 3396 | 10.3 | 8.9 | -1.5 | 38.9 | 29.2 | -9.6 | 5.3 |
| Carroll County | 2268 | 3144 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | -11.0 | -13.0 | 5.6 |
| Sioux County | 1898 | 3124 | 7.2 | 7.0 | -0.2 | -61.7 | -70.0 | -8.2 | 3.6 |
| Jones County | 2172 | 3107 | 7.0 | 6.2 | -0.9 | 9.2 | -1.8 | -11.0 | 5.1 |
| Cedar County | 2195 | 3004 | 8.1 | 7.4 | -0.6 | 3.3 | -1.6 | -4.9 | 3.7 |
| Mahaska County | 2017 | 2880 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | -23.5 | -33.6 | -10.1 | 3.5 |
| Poweshiek County | 2293 | 2783 | 12.2 | 14.0 | 1.8 | 19.5 | 16.1 | -3.4 | 2.5 |
| Buchanan County | 2084 | 2709 | 7.1 | 6.6 | -0.5 | 13.6 | 5.1 | -8.6 | 3.8 |
| Clay County | 2123 | 2692 | 8.5 | 7.8 | -0.6 | -26.4 | -27.0 | -0.7 | 2.5 |
| Madison County | 2148 | 2662 | 9.6 | 6.7 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -17.2 | -14.1 | 4.0 |
| Jackson County | 2074 | 2634 | 7.3 | 4.8 | -2.5 | 20.8 | 3.5 | -17.3 | 3.9 |
| Benton County | 2213 | 2508 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.2 | -2.8 | -12.0 | -9.2 | 0.9 |
| Iowa County | 1837 | 2456 | 8.7 | 7.7 | -1.0 | -3.4 | -7.0 | -3.6 | 4.5 |
| Delaware County | 1896 | 2315 | 8.1 | 7.0 | -1.1 | -11.8 | -9.3 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Hamilton County | 1681 | 2264 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 0.7 | -4.3 | -11.9 | -7.6 | 4.0 |
| Chickasaw County | 1968 | 2230 | 6.2 | 5.3 | -0.9 | 5.3 | -3.3 | -8.6 | 1.9 |
| Fayette County | 1872 | 2208 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | -4.0 | 3.6 |
| Buena Vista County | 1396 | 2195 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 4.7 | -14.8 | -11.5 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Mills County | 1361 | 2185 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 1.7 | -26.5 | -29.7 | -3.2 | 2.8 |
| Hardin County | 1721 | 2122 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 0.4 | -10.6 | -20.1 | -9.5 | 4.0 |
| Kossuth County | 1718 | 2087 | 6.8 | 6.2 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -17.3 | -16.0 | 1.7 |
| Allamakee County | 1716 | 2047 | 7.8 | 7.5 | -0.3 | -10.2 | -16.8 | -6.6 | 1.6 |
| Floyd County | 1535 | 1966 | 7.9 | 7.2 | -0.7 | 16.4 | 8.1 | -8.2 | 4.7 |
| Clayton County | 1592 | 1943 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 9.4 | -0.9 | -10.3 | 2.8 |
| Cherokee County | 1369 | 1910 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 1.1 | -36.8 | -38.3 | -1.5 | 2.8 |
| Shelby County | 1257 | 1811 | 7.8 | 6.8 | -0.9 | -27.9 | -29.3 | -1.4 | 2.5 |
| Union County | 1328 | 1758 | 8.7 | 7.6 | -1.2 | -10.7 | -10.9 | -0.2 | 3.2 |
| Butler County | 1396 | 1700 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 0.8 | -25.9 | -28.8 | -2.8 | 5.2 |
| Cass County | 1201 | 1671 | 9.1 | 8.3 | -0.8 | -28.5 | -25.7 | 2.8 | 4.9 |
| Guthrie County | 1337 | 1649 | 9.4 | 5.9 | -3.5 | -10.6 | -21.0 | -10.4 | 2.3 |
| Grundy County | 986 | 1647 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 1.9 | -20.9 | -25.8 | -4.9 | 5.5 |
| Crawford County | 1077 | 1625 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 2.8 | -11.6 | -19.1 | -7.5 | -1.6 |
| Page County | 1239 | 1614 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 0.8 | -33.3 | -35.3 | -2.1 | 5.4 |
| Appanoose County | 1191 | 1606 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 1.4 | -3.1 | -14.0 | -10.9 | 3.1 |
| Mitchell County | 1156 | 1528 | 10.2 | 6.5 | -3.7 | -2.4 | -4.6 | -2.2 | 3.3 |
| Greene County | 1269 | 1492 | 7.2 | 6.1 | -1.2 | -4.6 | -7.9 | -3.3 | 3.1 |
| Tama County | 1223 | 1447 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 4.1 | -7.3 | -11.3 | 0.4 |
| Harrison County | 886 | 1371 | 10.4 | 8.0 | -2.4 | -8.5 | -22.2 | -13.7 | 1.0 |
| Humboldt County | 953 | 1294 | 6.1 | 5.6 | -0.4 | -15.7 | -22.3 | -6.6 | 3.4 |
| Wright County | 1069 | 1276 | 8.2 | 7.3 | -0.9 | -20.7 | -20.3 | 0.4 | 3.6 |
| Louisa County | 778 | 1263 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 3.0 | -6.6 | -10.6 | -4.1 | 5.3 |
| Palo Alto County | 890 | 1247 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 1.6 | -1.5 | -9.2 | -7.8 | 4.4 |
| Lucas County | 943 | 1220 | 8.7 | 8.3 | -0.4 | -16.3 | -9.9 | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| Clarke County | 976 | 1147 | 11.8 | 8.3 | -3.5 | -5.3 | -8.8 | -3.5 | 2.7 |
| Monroe County | 880 | 1144 | 7.5 | 7.3 | -0.2 | -11.9 | -15.3 | -3.4 | 3.4 |
| Howard County | 789 | 1120 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 1.7 | 13.9 | 10.2 | -3.8 | 10.9 |
| O'Brien County | 779 | 1112 | 9.4 | 8.0 | -1.4 | -38.8 | -48.4 | -9.6 | 1.8 |
| Montgomery County | 778 | 1105 | 10.2 | 8.7 | -1.5 | -23.4 | -24.5 | -1.1 | 3.6 |
| Hancock County | 917 | 1103 | 7.5 | 6.8 | -0.7 | -21.2 | -20.6 | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Adair County | 847 | 1092 | 8.0 | 6.2 | -1.8 | -19.4 | -26.0 | -6.6 | 3.8 |
| Winnebago County | 795 | 1090 | 9.9 | 7.1 | -2.9 | 6.9 | -7.6 | -14.5 | 5.6 |
| Franklin County | 834 | 1065 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 0.5 | -19.5 | -21.8 | -2.2 | 1.9 |
| Calhoun County | 832 | 1032 | 8.1 | 6.3 | -1.8 | -13.8 | -24.2 | -10.4 | 3.1 |
| Emmet County | 769 | 1013 | 9.2 | 7.9 | -1.3 | 5.7 | -3.5 | -9.2 | 1.1 |
| Lyon County | 571 | 997 | 9.5 | 8.6 | -0.8 | -59.9 | -66.0 | -6.1 | 1.9 |
| Monona County | 655 | 955 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 7.8 | -13.5 | -21.3 | 2.7 |
| Sac County | 721 | 942 | 8.2 | 8.0 | -0.2 | -29.1 | -34.4 | -5.3 | 1.4 |
| Davis County | 795 | 927 | 8.8 | 5.9 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -17.8 | -14.7 | 1.7 |
| Keokuk County | 691 | 919 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 2.3 | -3.9 | -18.5 | -14.6 | -0.4 |
| Pocahontas County | 683 | 850 | 10.2 | 7.9 | -2.4 | -21.7 | -30.1 | -8.4 | -1.1 |
| Decatur County | 655 | 849 | 11.8 | 7.7 | -4.1 | -17.7 | -19.9 | -2.2 | 1.8 |
| Audubon County | 642 | 837 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | -20.6 | -18.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Ringgold County | 534 | 750 | 8.6 | 5.5 | -3.1 | -30.0 | -34.7 | -4.7 | 3.2 |
| Fremont County | 558 | 740 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 0.3 | -24.4 | -23.6 | 0.7 | 6.3 |
| Van Buren County | 625 | 740 | 10.7 | 8.0 | -2.7 | -28.3 | -33.8 | -5.5 | -0.0 |
| Henry County | 2554 | 733 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 2.2 | -15.3 | -7.0 | 8.4 | 1.1 |
| Wayne County | 605 | 730 | 11.7 | 6.8 | -4.9 | -27.8 | -29.0 | -1.3 | -3.3 |
| Worth County | 566 | 691 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 1.4 | -5.3 | 1.5 |
| Ida County | 508 | 663 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 1.1 | -26.4 | -30.2 | -3.8 | 1.6 |
| Taylor County | 424 | 633 | 10.6 | 6.0 | -4.6 | -30.4 | -44.4 | -14.0 | 1.7 |
| Adams County | 487 | 597 | 8.6 | 6.9 | -1.8 | -18.9 | -26.8 | -7.9 | 5.2 |
| Osceola County | 339 | 461 | 9.4 | 7.8 | -1.6 | -50.1 | -55.3 | -5.2 | 2.7 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Separate tracker totals: UF Election Lab, CNN/AP/Catalist and NBC News/TargetSmart. Full-2022 early totals: CNN/AP/Catalist; 2022 turnout: OnPoint. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH. Counties require at least 50 ballots in both years. Plot positions are clamped at ±15 horizontal and ±30 vertical points; downloads retain exact values. The grey band uses the plotted county universe. Separate tracker totals and 2022 full-period totals are context, not the matched-stage denominators.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-county-ia.csv

Iowa’s unaffiliated ballots rose 68.8%, Republican ballots 39.5% and Democratic ballots 19.8%. Democrats still led the tracked early-voter groups by 11.9 points, down from 18.7 in the 2022 comparison.

Republicans gained relative to Democrats in 88 of the 99 counties. The Democratic advantage narrowed in Polk by 8.8 points, Linn by 3.8 and Johnson by 5.7. Those are changes from each county’s own 2022 position, not its current party margin.

The occasional-voter share barely changed statewide, from 9.3% to 9.1%, while the occasional ballot count increased 31.0%. Among consistent voters, unaffiliated ballots rose 67.9%, Republican ballots 42.7% and Democratic ballots 19.8%. Iowa’s stronger Republican growth coexists with a continuing Democratic early-vote lead.

## What the 70% increase means

**Unaffiliated early ballots grew fastest across the six states**

| Party group | 2022 early ballots | 2026 early ballots | Growth (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unaffiliated / other | 2456936 | 4186006 | 70.4 |
| Democratic | 4181642 | 5627430 | 34.6 |
| Republican | 4466946 | 5474141 | 22.5 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-growth.csv

For every 100 unaffiliated early ballots recorded at this stage in 2022, we now have about 170. The equivalent figures are about 135 Democratic ballots and 123 Republican ballots. All three groups grew; the unaffiliated group grew fastest.

These totals come from adding the tracked county ballots across all six states. Large states contribute more ballots to the result. A 70% increase across the combined group does not mean every state increased by 70%.

| State | Unaffiliated ballot growth | Democratic ballot growth | Republican ballot growth |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Texas | 89.8% | 41.3% | 20.6% |
| North Carolina | 51.2% | 29.7% | 9.3% |
| Kansas | 87.5% | 33.5% | 16.6% |
| Michigan | 66.4% | 41.4% | 50.1% |
| Ohio | 65.6% | 9.3% | 16.6% |
| Iowa | 68.8% | 19.8% | 39.5% |

“Unaffiliated” is shorthand for the source’s unaffiliated/other category. In North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa, the party groups reflect registration. Texas and Michigan use modelled party classifications. Ohio uses last-primary participation. Someone in the unaffiliated category may have strong political preferences, and a modelled classification may differ from how someone describes themselves.

## The larger increase is among people with a voting record

**Unaffiliated early ballots rose 95% among consistent voters**

| Party group | 2022 early ballots | 2026 early ballots | Growth (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unaffiliated / other | 1462454 | 2855059 | 95.2 |
| Democratic | 3774962 | 5110310 | 35.4 |
| Republican | 4078883 | 5188437 | 27.2 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-consistent.csv

We call someone a **consistent voter** if they voted in two, three or four of the preceding four general elections. An **occasional voter** voted in zero or one. A person with no recorded vote may also be newly eligible or newly registered, so this group includes more than habitual nonvoters.

Among consistent voters, unaffiliated early ballots increased 95% across the six states. Democratic ballots increased 35% and Republican ballots 27%. The unaffiliated increase is especially large among people with an established record of voting.

| State | Consistent unaffiliated growth | Consistent Democratic growth | Consistent Republican growth |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Texas | 174.0% | 39.6% | 23.7% |
| North Carolina | 57.0% | 33.9% | 18.2% |
| Kansas | 91.3% | 39.0% | 21.0% |
| Michigan | 116.5% | 45.1% | 57.5% |
| Ohio | 80.8% | 10.4% | 19.7% |
| Iowa | 67.9% | 19.8% | 42.7% |

These are increases in ballot counts. To calculate a turnout rate, we would also need the number of eligible or registered people in each group. And because the four-election history window rolls forward, we are comparing groups with similar voting records, rather than following exactly the same people across both elections.

## Occasional voters have a smaller share, even when their numbers rise

**Occasional voters have a smaller share of early ballots**

| State | 2022 occasional share (%) | 2026 occasional share (%) | Change (points) | 2022 occasional ballots | 2026 occasional ballots |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| All six states | 16.1 | 14.0 | -2.2 | 1789225 | 2133771 |
| Texas | 17.1 | 16.7 | -0.4 | 932180 | 1260071 |
| North Carolina | 17.1 | 13.4 | -3.7 | 366060 | 372093 |
| Kansas | 12.5 | 10.2 | -2.3 | 43863 | 47214 |
| Michigan | 16.1 | 9.9 | -6.2 | 245573 | 228223 |
| Ohio | 13.1 | 10.7 | -2.4 | 169634 | 184361 |
| Iowa | 9.3 | 9.1 | -0.2 | 31915 | 41809 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-occasional.csv

Occasional voters account for 14.0% of the combined tracked early vote, down from 16.1% in 2022. Their ballot count actually increased by 19.3%. Consistent voters increased faster, leaving occasional voters with a smaller slice of a larger total.

The distinction matters when reading the chart. A fall in share does not automatically mean fewer people voted.

| State | Occasional share in 2022 | Occasional share in 2026 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Texas | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| North Carolina | 17.1% | 13.4% |
| Kansas | 12.5% | 10.2% |
| Michigan | 16.1% | 9.9% |
| Ohio | 13.1% | 10.7% |
| Iowa | 9.3% | 9.1% |

The original one-picture graphic rounds these shares to whole numbers. That is why Texas reads 17% to 17%, and Iowa 9% to 9%, despite small declines in both. The individual graphs show one decimal place.

## The six additional statewide cards

The original graphic’s bottom row uses statewide party shares for Maine, Alaska, Minnesota, Nebraska, Louisiana and South Carolina. We show those comparisons separately below. We do not have the same voting-history breakdown for those cards, so we cannot say how much of their change came from consistent or occasional voters.

These comparisons use October 31, 2026 and November 5, 2022, three days before each election. The 2022 shares were published as whole percentages, so the shifts are approximate. Party may be modelled where registration is unavailable.

### Maine

**Maine early-voter party shares**

| Party group | 2022 share (%) | 2026 share (%) | Change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unaffiliated / other | 26.0 | 29.9 | 3.9 |
| Democratic | 50.0 | 47.1 | -2.9 |
| Republican | 24.0 | 23.0 | -1.0 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Statewide party shares via NBC News/TargetSmart. Caveat: October 31, 2026 versus November 5, 2022. 2022 shares are rounded; party may be modelled. No comparable voting-history split. Shares are not candidate votes.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-shares-me.csv

The Democratic-minus-Republican gap moved about 1.9 points toward Republicans. Democrats’ share fell from 50% to 47.1%; Republicans’ share also fell, from 24% to 23.0%. The unaffiliated share rose from 26% to 29.9%. Both parties had smaller shares, but the Democratic decline was larger, narrowing their lead.

### Alaska

**Alaska early-voter party shares**

| Party group | 2022 share (%) | 2026 share (%) | Change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unaffiliated / other | 51.0 | 53.1 | 2.1 |
| Democratic | 19.0 | 18.9 | -0.1 |
| Republican | 30.0 | 27.9 | -2.1 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Statewide party shares via NBC News/TargetSmart. Caveat: October 31, 2026 versus November 5, 2022. 2022 shares are rounded; party may be modelled. No comparable voting-history split. Shares are not candidate votes.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-shares-ak.csv

The Republican advantage narrowed by about 2.0 points. Democrats’ share was nearly unchanged, from 19% to 18.9%, while Republicans fell from 30% to 27.9%. The unaffiliated share increased from 51% to 53.1%. The relative Democratic improvement came mainly through a smaller Republican share.

### Minnesota

**Minnesota early-voter party shares**

| Party group | 2022 share (%) | 2026 share (%) | Change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unaffiliated / other | 29.0 | 38.1 | 9.1 |
| Democratic | 45.0 | 44.8 | -0.2 |
| Republican | 26.0 | 17.1 | -8.9 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Statewide party shares via NBC News/TargetSmart. Caveat: October 31, 2026 versus November 5, 2022. 2022 shares are rounded; party may be modelled. No comparable voting-history split. Shares are not candidate votes.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-shares-mn.csv

The Democratic-Republican gap improved by about 8.6 points for Democrats. Their share stayed close to 45%, at 44.8%, while Republicans fell from 26% to 17.1%. The unaffiliated share increased from 29% to 38.1%. Changes in both participation and party classification can affect this comparison.

### Nebraska

**Nebraska early-voter party shares**

| Party group | 2022 share (%) | 2026 share (%) | Change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unaffiliated / other | 15.0 | 17.3 | 2.3 |
| Democratic | 38.0 | 38.9 | 0.9 |
| Republican | 47.0 | 43.9 | -3.1 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Statewide party shares via NBC News/TargetSmart. Caveat: October 31, 2026 versus November 5, 2022. 2022 shares are rounded; party may be modelled. No comparable voting-history split. Shares are not candidate votes.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-shares-ne.csv

Republicans’ lead narrowed by about 4.0 points. Their share fell from 47% to 43.9%, while Democrats rose from 38% to 38.9%. The unaffiliated share increased from 15% to 17.3%. Republicans still had the larger party-group share in this snapshot.

### Louisiana

**Louisiana early-voter party shares**

| Party group | 2022 share (%) | 2026 share (%) | Change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unaffiliated / other | 15.0 | 18.0 | 3.0 |
| Democratic | 41.0 | 42.3 | 1.3 |
| Republican | 44.0 | 39.7 | -4.3 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Statewide party shares via NBC News/TargetSmart. Caveat: October 31, 2026 versus November 5, 2022. 2022 shares are rounded; party may be modelled. No comparable voting-history split. Shares are not candidate votes.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-shares-la.csv

A Republican lead of 3.0 points became a Democratic lead of about 2.5 points, a 5.5-point relative Democratic improvement. Democrats’ share rose from 41% to 42.3%, Republicans fell from 44% to 39.7%, and unaffiliated voters increased from 15% to 18.0%.

### South Carolina

**South Carolina early-voter party shares**

| Party group | 2022 share (%) | 2026 share (%) | Change (points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Unaffiliated / other | 17.0 | 8.9 | -8.1 |
| Democratic | 33.0 | 44.7 | 11.7 |
| Republican | 50.0 | 46.4 | -3.6 |

Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Statewide party shares via NBC News/TargetSmart. Caveat: October 31, 2026 versus November 5, 2022. 2022 shares are rounded; party may be modelled. No comparable voting-history split. Shares are not candidate votes. South Carolina’s unaffiliated share nearly halved; classification changes may affect the comparison.
Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-shares-sc.csv

The reported Democratic-Republican gap improved by 15.2 points for Democrats. Democrats rose from 33% to 44.7% of early voters, Republicans fell from 50% to 46.4%, and the unaffiliated share dropped from 17% to 8.9%.

That sharp decline in the unaffiliated category is a reason for caution. A change in classification could contribute to the apparent party shift; these snapshots do not establish the cause. We would not treat the 15.2-point change as a clean estimate of voter persuasion.

## Why the turnout totals differ from the party breakdowns

The graphic’s small early-ballot totals come from separate statewide trackers. They round to 7.73 million in Texas, 2.82 million in North Carolina, 0.41 million in Kansas, 2.31 million in Michigan, 1.73 million in Ohio and 0.46 million in Iowa. They should not be substituted for the county-summed party and voting-history counts used to calculate the growth percentages.

For context, the graphic also gives each state’s whole 2022 early vote: about 5.42 million in Texas, 2.15 million in North Carolina, 0.39 million in Kansas, 1.69 million in Michigan, 1.31 million in Ohio and 0.34 million in Iowa. Those are full early-voting-period totals. Our main growth calculations use the matched-stage county records described above.

The percentages above the panels answer another question: how much of all 2022 voting happened early? Texas was about 67%, North Carolina 57%, Kansas and Michigan 38%, Ohio 31% and Iowa 28%. These historical percentages explain how common early voting was in each state. They are not estimates of how much of the eventual 2026 vote is already in.

## Data and limits

This article explains the frozen graphic published on November 3. Iowa is through November 1; we have not refreshed it with later records. County comparisons cover mail and early in-person ballots. The plot includes counties with at least 50 ballots in each comparison year, and the statewide calculations use all available county records.

You can download the [party and consistent-voter growth table](/data/public/senate-early-vote-growth.csv), the [occasional-voter and party-margin table](/data/public/senate-early-vote-composition.csv), the [six additional states’ party shares](/data/public/senate-early-vote-statewide.csv), and the [723 plotted counties](/data/public/senate-early-vote-counties.csv). Each is also available as JSON: [growth](/data/public/senate-early-vote-growth.json), [composition](/data/public/senate-early-vote-composition.json), [statewide shares](/data/public/senate-early-vote-statewide.json), and [counties](/data/public/senate-early-vote-counties.json). Every figure has a data table, CSV and JSON downloads, and a Share figure option. Hover, tap or use the arrow keys on a county dot to read its exact values. The [original published graphic](/figures/senate-battlegrounds-early-vote.png) remains available as a download.

Party categories, tracker coverage and the timing of early voting can change between elections. None of these comparisons reveals a voter’s candidate choice. Election Day voters and outstanding mail ballots still have to be included before assessing the final electorate.

## Caveat

These are early voters classified by party, not votes for candidates. Party is modelled in Texas and Michigan, and based on last-primary participation in Ohio. Voting-history groups change between elections.

## Sources

Carmena’s Overton analysis. County early-ballot counts by party and voting history via ColdSpark. Main comparisons use November 1, 2026 and November 6, 2022; Kansas uses November 2, 2026 and November 7, 2022. Iowa through November 1. The six additional statewide cards use NBC News/TargetSmart, October 31, 2026 versus November 5, 2022. The original graphic’s separate statewide totals use UF Election Lab, CNN/AP/Catalist and NBC News/TargetSmart; its full-2022 early-ballot totals use CNN/AP/Catalist and its 2022 turnout denominators use OnPoint.



## Cite this

Research desk. “Unaffiliated early voting is up 70%. Here is the state-by-state picture..” Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research, Nov 3, 2026. https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/unaffiliated-early-voting-senate-battlegrounds/

Free to use with credit under CC BY 4.0. HTML version: https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/unaffiliated-early-voting-senate-battlegrounds/