--- title: "Data | Carmena’s Overton" canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/" publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research" license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)" --- # Data | Carmena’s Overton Public data behind Carmena’s Overton charts, free to use with credit under CC BY 4.0. In-depth data, polling and research are available for commercial use. The data behind our public charts and headline figures is free for anyone to use, with credit. Last updated Oct 23, 2026. ## Public data Each file is a CSV, with a JSON copy, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). Credit “Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research” and link to the page you used. - **2026 midterm indicators:** generic ballot, early ballots cast and their share of past turnout, as of Oct 23, 2026. - **Early voters by party, national:** the NBC News / TargetSmart national split for 2026, 2024 and 2022 at the same point. - **Generic ballot, 11 days out:** 2018, 2022 and 2026, with the final House vote. - **Senate battlegrounds:** early-vote pace against 2024 and the party mix of early voters in ten states, with a source tag for each. Figures we quote from other organisations, such as NBC News / TargetSmart, the Silver Bulletin and 538, remain theirs. Credit them as well when you reuse those figures. ## Commercial use In-depth data, custom polling and research are available for commercial use under licence. That includes more detailed versions of the data behind our posts, polling designed around your question, and longer analysis on a topic you choose. Everything we license is aggregated; we never sell records about individual voters. Tell us what you need and we will reply by email. ## Non-profits and researchers Non-profits and academic researchers can have access to our data and research on request. Tell us about the project. ## Files - [Early voters by party, national, 11 days out](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/early-voters-by-party.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/early-voters-by-party.json): The national party split of early voters 11 days before Election Day in 2026, 2024 and 2022, as published by the NBC News / TargetSmart early-vote tracker. - [Generic ballot 11 days out and the final House vote](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/generic-ballot.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/generic-ballot.json): The generic ballot polling average 11 days before Election Day and on Election Day, with the national House popular vote, for 2018, 2022 and 2026. Values are D−R points; negative values are Republican leads. - [2026 midterm indicators, 11 days out](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/midterm-indicators.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/midterm-indicators.json): Headline indicators for the 2026 midterms as of Oct 23, 2026, with the same point in earlier cycles: generic ballot average, early ballots cast, their share of prior turnout, and the D−R margin among early voters. - [Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-battlegrounds.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-battlegrounds.json): 2026 early ballots in ten Senate battleground states as of Oct 23, 2026, 11 days out, as a percentage of each state’s count at the same point in 2024 and 2022, with the party mix of 2026 early voters from the best available source per state. - [Chart data: Generic ballot 11 days out, against the final House vote](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-generic-ballot.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-generic-ballot.json): The data behind the chart “Generic ballot 11 days out, against the final House vote” (post 1), as of 2026-10-23. Silver Bulletin average (2026); 538 average (2018, 2022). 2022 polls understated Republicans: R+0.6 in the average, R+2.7 in the House vote. - [Chart data: 21.7M early ballots so far, against 2024 at the same point](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-banked-share.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-banked-share.json): The data behind the chart “21.7M early ballots so far, against 2024 at the same point” (post 2), as of 2026-10-23. State early-vote reports at 11 days out; total turnout 2022 and 2024. The 2026 share is of 2022’s total turnout; the 2024 share is of 2024’s. Raw ballots are at 61% of 2024’s pace, a presidential year. - [Chart data: Early voters are D+15 this year. At the same point in 2024 they were D+2.](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-early-mix.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-early-mix.json): The data behind the chart “Early voters are D+15 this year. At the same point in 2024 they were D+2.” (post 3), as of 2026-10-23. NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026; 2024 at the same point (Oct 25, 2024). TargetSmart models party in 21 states, and party is not vote choice. Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020. - [Chart data: Where the tracker’s party split is a model](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-modelled-share.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-modelled-share.json): The data behind the chart “Where the tracker’s party split is a model” (post 4), as of 2026-10-23. NBC News early-vote tracker, party “modeled by TargetSmart” in 21 states; early-vote counts by state as of Oct 23, 2026 (10.4M of 21.7M early votes). “Not marked as modelled” is NBC’s labelling, not a check we ran. - [Chart data: North Carolina: party of last primary against registration](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-primary-proxy.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-primary-proxy.json): The data behind the chart “North Carolina: party of last primary against registration” (post 5), as of 2026-10-23. North Carolina voter registration and early-vote files (1,096,068 early voters). The proxy moves unaffiliated primary voters into a party, and partisans who skip primaries into Other. - [Chart data: North Carolina unaffiliated early voters by last primary ballot](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-nc-unaffiliated.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-nc-unaffiliated.json): The data behind the chart “North Carolina unaffiliated early voters by last primary ballot” (post 6), as of 2026-10-23. North Carolina early-vote file with primary history. Only unaffiliated early voters who have voted in a primary are counted. - [Chart data: North Carolina 2024: unaffiliated voters for President and for Governor](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-unaffiliated-split.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-unaffiliated-split.json): The data behind the chart “North Carolina 2024: unaffiliated voters for President and for Governor” (post 7), as of 2026-10-23. North Carolina 2024 turnout by party and certified results. Estimated from totals, assuming partisans voted for their own party. - [Chart data: How far the county method understated the Democratic early-vote margin](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-county-bias.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-county-bias.json): The data behind the chart “How far the county method understated the Democratic early-vote margin” (post 8), as of 2026-10-23. Early votes with known party in 8 states; 2024 county results. Tested only in the 8 states where party is known from records. - [Chart data: Texas early voters: state records against the tracker](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-tx-records.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-tx-records.json): The data behind the chart “Texas early voters: state records against the tracker” (post 9), as of 2026-10-23. Texas SOS early-vote rosters joined to 2026 primary rosters (2,159,376 early voters, through Oct 21); NBC News / TargetSmart tracker, Oct 23, 2026. Adding 2022 and 2024 primaries in 4 counties (25% of votes) moved the margin about 0.6 pt. The tracker read D 49, R 42, Other 9 (D+7) on Oct 22. - [Chart data: Ohio early voters: state file against the tracker](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-oh-agree.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-oh-agree.json): The data behind the chart “Ohio early voters: state file against the tracker” (post 10), as of 2026-10-23. Ohio SOS absentee file (party from last primary); NBC News / TargetSmart. The two sources agree on the margin and disagree on independents. - [Chart data: Texas 2026 early voters by vote history and party](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-tx-new-voters.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-tx-new-voters.json): The data behind the chart “Texas 2026 early voters by vote history and party” (post 11), as of 2026-10-23. Texas early-vote rosters joined to 2022 and 2024 vote history, Oct 23, 2026. Nationally, 80% of early voters voted in both 2022 and 2024. “New” = voted in neither 2022 nor 2024. - [Chart data: Share of counties that moved with the nation, within 4 points](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-bellwethers.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-bellwethers.json): The data behind the chart “Share of counties that moved with the nation, within 4 points” (post 12), as of 2026-10-23. County House results across midterms. A perfect past record adds 0–4 points of predictive edge. - [Chart data: Correlation of county new-voter share with the presidential swing](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-new-voters-swing.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-new-voters-swing.json): The data behind the chart “Correlation of county new-voter share with the presidential swing” (post 13), as of 2026-10-23. County new-voter shares and presidential swing, North Carolina and Ohio. Correlation across counties, not a measure of individual voters. In 2024 the correlation was about zero. - [Chart data: Where voter files are free, with no account or form](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-voterfile-access.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-voterfile-access.json): The data behind the chart “Where voter files are free, with no account or form” (post 14), as of 2026-10-23. State and county election office access policies. Cheapest paid files: Pennsylvania about $20, Alaska about $21. - [Chart data: Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds: 50% to 98% of 2024’s pace](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-battleground-pace.csv) (CSV; JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-battleground-pace.json): The data behind the chart “Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds: 50% to 98% of 2024’s pace” (post 15), as of 2026-10-23. State early-vote data via UF Election Lab and NBC News, Oct 23, 2026, against NBC at the same point in 2024. Party mix: state registration files (reg.), party of last primary from state records (primary; Ohio as of Oct 22, Texas through Oct 21), or vendor estimate, TargetSmart via NBC (model). 2024 was a presidential year, so every state is below its 2024 count. Party mix is not vote choice.