{
  "name": "chart-bellwethers",
  "title": "Chart data: Share of counties that moved with the nation, within 4 points",
  "description": "The data behind the chart “Share of counties that moved with the nation, within 4 points” (post 12), as of 2026-10-23. County House results across midterms. A perfect past record adds 0–4 points of predictive edge.",
  "updated": "2026-10-23",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Chart data: Share of counties that moved with the nation, within 4 points” (CSV). Last updated 2026-10-23. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-bellwethers.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-bellwethers.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#chart-bellwethers",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "midterms",
      "description": "Midterms"
    },
    {
      "name": "low",
      "description": "Low (%)"
    },
    {
      "name": "high",
      "description": "High (%)"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "A perfect past record adds 0–4 points of predictive edge."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "midterms": "Most House midterms",
      "low": 13,
      "high": 16
    },
    {
      "midterms": "2022",
      "low": 33,
      "high": 38
    }
  ]
}