{
  "name": "chart-ks-county-shift",
  "title": "Chart data: Compared with the same point in 2022, Johnson’s early voters have gone from a Republican lead to a Democratic one.",
  "description": "The data behind the chart “Compared with the same point in 2022, Johnson’s early voters have gone from a Republican lead to a Democratic one.” (post 16), as of 2026-10-26. ColdSpark Kansas tracker, pinned snapshot, early mail returns and in-person votes. Final 2024 ballot weights: Kansas Secretary of State presidential workbook turnout sheet. Calculations by Carmena’s Overton. Dots and rings measure early voters’ registered parties at eight days out, not candidate choices. Filled dots are 2026; rings are 2022. Rest of Kansas combines the same 98 covered counties in both years, excluding Johnson, Sedgwick, Shawnee and Riley. Its margins are calculated from summed party counts, not an average of county margins; it does not imply every remaining county leans Republican. The aggregate row is not an additional county. Share bars compare explicitly labeled populations: all 2024 ballots versus covered 2026 early ballots. The 2026 statewide extract covers 102 counties; historical statewide totals cover all 105. Weight inputs and denominators are retained on the Johnson row in the download.",
  "updated": "2026-10-26",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Chart data: Compared with the same point in 2022, Johnson’s early voters have gone from a Republican lead to a Democratic one.” (CSV). Last updated 2026-10-26. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-county-shift.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-county-shift.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#chart-ks-county-shift",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "county",
      "description": "County"
    },
    {
      "name": "margin2026",
      "description": "2026 margin"
    },
    {
      "name": "margin2022",
      "description": "2022 margin"
    },
    {
      "name": "votes2026",
      "description": "2026 early votes"
    },
    {
      "name": "dem2026",
      "description": "2026 registered Democrats"
    },
    {
      "name": "rep2026",
      "description": "2026 registered Republicans"
    },
    {
      "name": "oth2026",
      "description": "2026 unaffiliated and other"
    },
    {
      "name": "votes2022",
      "description": "2022 early votes"
    },
    {
      "name": "margin2024",
      "description": "2024 margin"
    },
    {
      "name": "votes2024",
      "description": "2024 early votes"
    },
    {
      "name": "stateShare2022",
      "description": "2022 share of statewide early ballots"
    },
    {
      "name": "stateShare2024",
      "description": "2024 share of statewide early ballots"
    },
    {
      "name": "stateShare2026",
      "description": "2026 share of statewide early ballots"
    },
    {
      "name": "finalBallots2024",
      "description": "County final ballots, 2024"
    },
    {
      "name": "statewideBallots2024",
      "description": "Statewide final ballots, 2024"
    },
    {
      "name": "finalBallotShare2024",
      "description": "County share of final ballots, 2024"
    },
    {
      "name": "statewideEarlyBallots2026",
      "description": "Covered statewide early ballots, 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "combinedBallots2024",
      "description": "Johnson and Sedgwick final ballots, 2024"
    },
    {
      "name": "combinedBallotShare2024",
      "description": "Johnson and Sedgwick share of final ballots, 2024"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Dots and rings measure early voters’ registered parties at eight days out, not candidate choices. Filled dots are 2026; rings are 2022. Rest of Kansas combines the same 98 covered counties in both years, excluding Johnson, Sedgwick, Shawnee and Riley. Its margins are calculated from summed party counts, not an average of county margins; it does not imply every remaining county leans Republican. The aggregate row is not an additional county. Share bars compare explicitly labeled populations: all 2024 ballots versus covered 2026 early ballots. The 2026 statewide extract covers 102 counties; historical statewide totals cover all 105. Weight inputs and denominators are retained on the Johnson row in the download."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "county": "Johnson",
      "dem2026": 42951,
      "rep2026": 33598,
      "oth2026": 16172,
      "margin2026": 10.1,
      "margin2022": -3.2,
      "votes2026": 92721,
      "votes2022": 56029,
      "margin2024": -7.9,
      "votes2024": 121897,
      "stateShare2022": 41.3,
      "stateShare2024": 40.4,
      "stateShare2026": 45.5,
      "finalBallots2024": 348594,
      "statewideBallots2024": 1343020,
      "statewideEarlyBallots2026": 203818,
      "finalBallotShare2024": 25.955979806704292,
      "combinedBallots2024": 565215,
      "combinedBallotShare2024": 42.08537475242364
    },
    {
      "county": "Sedgwick",
      "dem2026": 9763,
      "rep2026": 8430,
      "oth2026": 4276,
      "finalBallots2024": 216621,
      "statewideBallots2024": 1343020,
      "statewideEarlyBallots2026": 203818,
      "margin2026": 5.9,
      "margin2022": 8.3,
      "votes2026": 22469,
      "votes2022": 14136,
      "margin2024": -13.8,
      "votes2024": 35817,
      "stateShare2022": 10.4,
      "stateShare2024": 11.9,
      "stateShare2026": 11
    },
    {
      "county": "Shawnee",
      "dem2026": 5149,
      "rep2026": 3773,
      "oth2026": 1905,
      "finalBallots2024": 82702,
      "statewideBallots2024": 1343020,
      "statewideEarlyBallots2026": 203818,
      "margin2026": 12.7,
      "margin2022": 9.8,
      "votes2026": 10827,
      "votes2022": 8042,
      "margin2024": -5.6,
      "votes2024": 16560,
      "stateShare2022": 5.9,
      "stateShare2024": 5.5,
      "stateShare2026": 5.3
    },
    {
      "county": "Riley",
      "dem2026": 1920,
      "rep2026": 1525,
      "oth2026": 816,
      "finalBallots2024": 24670,
      "statewideBallots2024": 1343020,
      "statewideEarlyBallots2026": 203818,
      "margin2026": 9.3,
      "margin2022": -2.5,
      "votes2026": 4261,
      "votes2022": 2720,
      "margin2024": -5.4,
      "votes2024": 6517,
      "stateShare2022": 2,
      "stateShare2024": 2.2,
      "stateShare2026": 2.1
    },
    {
      "county": "Rest of Kansas",
      "isAggregate": true,
      "coveredCountyCount": 98,
      "votes2022": 54435,
      "dem2022": 21702,
      "rep2022": 26366,
      "oth2022": 6367,
      "margin2022": -8.56801690089097,
      "votes2026": 73540,
      "dem2026": 30140,
      "rep2026": 32005,
      "oth2026": 11395,
      "margin2026": -2.5360348109872177,
      "statewideEarlyBallots2026": 203818,
      "stateShare2026": 36.08120970669911
    }
  ]
}