{
  "name": "chart-ks-early-margin",
  "title": "Chart data: A repeat of 2022’s late shift would still leave a less Republican early electorate.",
  "description": "The data behind the chart “A repeat of 2022’s late shift would still leave a less Republican early electorate.” (post 16), as of 2026-10-26. ColdSpark Kansas tracker, pinned source snapshot; cumulative county mail-return and in-person early-ballot counts. Conditional illustration calculated by Carmena’s Overton. All solid lines measure early voters’ registered parties. Dotted segment: current 2026 D-minus-R margin plus the observed 2022 change from eight days out to day zero. Exact inputs: 2026 89,923 D and 79,331 R out of 203,818; 2022 at eight days out 57,281 D and 61,937 R out of 135,670; completed 2022 early count 145,079 D and 190,662 R out of 387,668. Only the hypothetical endpoint is calculated; the straight connecting segment is not a daily projection. This is not a forecast of turnout or candidate votes. Current coverage is 102 counties, historical statewide totals cover 105.",
  "updated": "2026-10-26",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Chart data: A repeat of 2022’s late shift would still leave a less Republican early electorate.” (CSV). Last updated 2026-10-26. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-early-margin.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-early-margin.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#chart-ks-early-margin",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "daysOut",
      "description": "Days before Election Day"
    },
    {
      "name": "margin2026",
      "description": "2026 margin"
    },
    {
      "name": "margin2022",
      "description": "2022 margin"
    },
    {
      "name": "margin2024",
      "description": "2024 margin"
    },
    {
      "name": "votes2026",
      "description": "2026 early votes"
    },
    {
      "name": "votes2022",
      "description": "2022 early votes"
    },
    {
      "name": "votes2024",
      "description": "2024 early votes"
    },
    {
      "name": "hypotheticalMargin2026",
      "description": "Hypothetical 2026 early margin if the remaining 2022 shift repeats"
    },
    {
      "name": "lateShift2022",
      "description": "2022 registration-margin change from eight days out to day zero"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "All solid lines measure early voters’ registered parties. Dotted segment: current 2026 D-minus-R margin plus the observed 2022 change from eight days out to day zero. Exact inputs: 2026 89,923 D and 79,331 R out of 203,818; 2022 at eight days out 57,281 D and 61,937 R out of 135,670; completed 2022 early count 145,079 D and 190,662 R out of 387,668. Only the hypothetical endpoint is calculated; the straight connecting segment is not a daily projection. This is not a forecast of turnout or candidate votes. Current coverage is 102 counties, historical statewide totals cover 105."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "daysOut": 14,
      "margin2026": 15.3,
      "votes2026": 55321,
      "margin2022": -6.2,
      "votes2022": 27226,
      "margin2024": -10.5,
      "votes2024": 64405
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 13,
      "margin2026": 11.3,
      "votes2026": 90993,
      "margin2022": -6.8,
      "votes2022": 48642,
      "margin2024": -11.6,
      "votes2024": 116397
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 12,
      "margin2026": 8.4,
      "votes2026": 122041,
      "margin2022": -4.6,
      "votes2022": 73310,
      "margin2024": -12.9,
      "votes2024": 166102
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 11,
      "margin2026": 6.3,
      "votes2026": 153737,
      "margin2022": -2.6,
      "votes2022": 92478,
      "margin2024": -12.9,
      "votes2024": 166102
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 10,
      "margin2026": 6.3,
      "votes2026": 153737,
      "margin2022": -2.6,
      "votes2022": 92478,
      "margin2024": -12.9,
      "votes2024": 166102
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 9,
      "margin2026": 6.3,
      "votes2026": 153737,
      "margin2022": -2.6,
      "votes2022": 92478,
      "margin2024": -12.9,
      "votes2024": 166102
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 8,
      "margin2026": 5.196793217478339,
      "votes2026": 203818,
      "margin2022": -3.4318567111373186,
      "votes2022": 135670,
      "margin2024": -14.7,
      "votes2024": 301864
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 7,
      "margin2026": null,
      "votes2026": null,
      "margin2022": -3.6,
      "votes2022": 167488,
      "margin2024": -14.6,
      "votes2024": 339992
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 6,
      "margin2026": null,
      "votes2026": null,
      "margin2022": -6.1,
      "votes2022": 205717,
      "margin2024": -15.3,
      "votes2024": 391768
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 5,
      "margin2026": null,
      "votes2026": null,
      "margin2022": -8,
      "votes2022": 244731,
      "margin2024": -16.7,
      "votes2024": 453168
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 4,
      "margin2026": null,
      "votes2026": null,
      "margin2022": -9.4,
      "votes2022": 282475,
      "margin2024": -17.7,
      "votes2024": 516864
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 3,
      "margin2026": null,
      "votes2026": null,
      "margin2022": -10.8,
      "votes2022": 324222,
      "margin2024": -18.3,
      "votes2024": 576697
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 2,
      "margin2026": null,
      "votes2026": null,
      "margin2022": -10.8,
      "votes2022": 324222,
      "margin2024": -18.3,
      "votes2024": 576697
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 1,
      "margin2026": null,
      "votes2026": null,
      "margin2022": -10.7,
      "votes2022": 352868,
      "margin2024": -18.1,
      "votes2024": 653157
    },
    {
      "daysOut": 0,
      "margin2026": null,
      "votes2026": null,
      "margin2022": -11.758257065323937,
      "votes2022": 387668,
      "margin2024": -18.5,
      "votes2024": 694959,
      "hypotheticalMargin2026": -3.1296071367082785,
      "lateShift2022": -8.326400354186617
    }
  ]
}