{
  "name": "chart-ks-voter-history",
  "title": "Chart data: Early voters who cast ballots in all four recent general elections went from R+9.6 to D+2.9. Voters with no recent record are about 3% of the early count.",
  "description": "The data behind the chart “Early voters who cast ballots in all four recent general elections went from R+9.6 to D+2.9. Voters with no recent record are about 3% of the early count.” (post 16), as of 2026-10-26. ColdSpark Kansas tracker via the Carmena’s Overton catalog (v_one, rule coldspark_previous_four_generals): county early mail and in-person ballots by registered party and prior general-election participation, eight days out. Calculations by Carmena’s Overton. Groups count how many of the four preceding general elections each early voter cast a ballot in, from each cycle’s matched voter file: 2014–2020 for 2022 and 2018–2024 for 2026. “None of the last four” includes newly eligible voters and people new to Kansas; it is not a count of lifetime first-time voters. Totals cover 201,731 early ballots in 2026 and 134,769 in 2022 across 103 counties, within about 1% of the statewide counts used elsewhere in the article. Margins are registered parties, not candidate choices.",
  "updated": "2026-10-26",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Chart data: Early voters who cast ballots in all four recent general elections went from R+9.6 to D+2.9. Voters with no recent record are about 3% of the early count.” (CSV). Last updated 2026-10-26. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-voter-history.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-ks-voter-history.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#chart-ks-voter-history",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "history",
      "description": "Voted in previous four generals"
    },
    {
      "name": "margin2026",
      "description": "2026 margin"
    },
    {
      "name": "margin2022",
      "description": "2022 margin"
    },
    {
      "name": "share2026",
      "description": "2026 share of early ballots"
    },
    {
      "name": "share2022",
      "description": "2022 share of early ballots"
    },
    {
      "name": "votes2026",
      "description": "2026 early ballots"
    },
    {
      "name": "votes2022",
      "description": "2022 early ballots"
    },
    {
      "name": "dem2026",
      "description": "2026 registered Democrats"
    },
    {
      "name": "rep2026",
      "description": "2026 registered Republicans"
    },
    {
      "name": "oth2026",
      "description": "2026 other"
    },
    {
      "name": "dem2022",
      "description": "2022 registered Democrats"
    },
    {
      "name": "rep2022",
      "description": "2022 registered Republicans"
    },
    {
      "name": "oth2022",
      "description": "2022 other"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Groups count how many of the four preceding general elections each early voter cast a ballot in, from each cycle’s matched voter file: 2014–2020 for 2022 and 2018–2024 for 2026. “None of the last four” includes newly eligible voters and people new to Kansas; it is not a count of lifetime first-time voters. Totals cover 201,731 early ballots in 2026 and 134,769 in 2022 across 103 counties, within about 1% of the statewide counts used elsewhere in the article. Margins are registered parties, not candidate choices."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "history": "All four",
      "priorGenerals": 4,
      "margin2022": -9.57151370009332,
      "margin2026": 2.8936032954553093,
      "share2022": 65.99514725196447,
      "share2026": 73.7670462150091,
      "votes2022": 88941,
      "votes2026": 148811,
      "dem2022": 36396,
      "rep2022": 44909,
      "oth2022": 7636,
      "dem2026": 67753,
      "rep2026": 63447,
      "oth2026": 17611
    },
    {
      "history": "Three of four",
      "priorGenerals": 3,
      "margin2022": 3.4571428571428573,
      "margin2026": 5.5101230647082176,
      "share2022": 15.582218462702848,
      "share2026": 12.48692565842632,
      "votes2022": 21000,
      "votes2026": 25190,
      "dem2022": 9389,
      "rep2022": 8663,
      "oth2022": 2948,
      "dem2026": 10549,
      "rep2026": 9161,
      "oth2026": 5480
    },
    {
      "history": "Two of four",
      "priorGenerals": 2,
      "margin2022": 10.83519156699777,
      "margin2026": 13.569372983343507,
      "share2022": 7.320674635858395,
      "share2026": 5.684302363047821,
      "votes2022": 9866,
      "votes2026": 11467,
      "dem2022": 4620,
      "rep2022": 3551,
      "oth2022": 1695,
      "dem2026": 4826,
      "rep2026": 3270,
      "oth2026": 3371
    },
    {
      "history": "One of four",
      "priorGenerals": 1,
      "margin2022": 13.203132946800936,
      "margin2026": 17.616033755274263,
      "share2022": 7.29470427175389,
      "share2026": 4.699327322027849,
      "votes2022": 9831,
      "votes2026": 9480,
      "dem2022": 4520,
      "rep2022": 3222,
      "oth2022": 2089,
      "dem2026": 3919,
      "rep2026": 2249,
      "oth2026": 3312
    },
    {
      "history": "None of the last four",
      "priorGenerals": 0,
      "margin2022": 15.572013252777236,
      "margin2026": 24.885743771192686,
      "share2022": 3.8072553777203955,
      "share2026": 3.3623984414889136,
      "votes2022": 5131,
      "votes2026": 6783,
      "dem2022": 2329,
      "rep2022": 1530,
      "oth2022": 1272,
      "dem2026": 2956,
      "rep2026": 1268,
      "oth2026": 2559
    }
  ]
}