{
  "name": "chart-modelled-share",
  "title": "Chart data: Where the tracker’s party split is a model",
  "description": "The data behind the chart “Where the tracker’s party split is a model” (post 4), as of 2026-10-23. NBC News early-vote tracker, party “modeled by TargetSmart” in 21 states; early-vote counts by state as of Oct 23, 2026 (10.4M of 21.7M early votes). “Not marked as modelled” is NBC’s labelling, not a check we ran.",
  "updated": "2026-10-23",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Chart data: Where the tracker’s party split is a model” (CSV). Last updated 2026-10-23. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-modelled-share.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-modelled-share.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#chart-modelled-share",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "group",
      "description": "Group"
    },
    {
      "name": "states",
      "description": "States"
    },
    {
      "name": "shareOfEarlyVotes",
      "description": "Share of 2026 early votes (%)"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "“Not marked as modelled” is NBC’s labelling, not a check we ran."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "group": "Modelled by TargetSmart",
      "states": "AL, AR, GA, HI, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, ND, OH, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI",
      "shareOfEarlyVotes": 48
    },
    {
      "group": "Not marked as modelled",
      "states": "The other 29 states and DC",
      "shareOfEarlyVotes": 52
    }
  ]
}