{
  "name": "chart-new-voters-swing",
  "title": "Chart data: Correlation of county new-voter share with the presidential swing",
  "description": "The data behind the chart “Correlation of county new-voter share with the presidential swing” (post 13), as of 2026-10-23. County new-voter shares and presidential swing, North Carolina and Ohio. Correlation across counties, not a measure of individual voters. In 2024 the correlation was about zero.",
  "updated": "2026-10-23",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Chart data: Correlation of county new-voter share with the presidential swing” (CSV). Last updated 2026-10-23. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-new-voters-swing.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-new-voters-swing.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#chart-new-voters-swing",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "group",
      "description": "Group"
    },
    {
      "name": "year",
      "description": "Year"
    },
    {
      "name": "r",
      "description": "Correlation (r)"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Correlation across counties, not a measure of individual voters. In 2024 the correlation was about zero."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "group": "North Carolina",
      "year": "2020",
      "r": 0.42
    },
    {
      "group": "North Carolina, new unaffiliated voters",
      "year": "2020",
      "r": 0.71
    },
    {
      "group": "Ohio",
      "year": "2020",
      "r": 0.5
    },
    {
      "group": "North Carolina",
      "year": "2024",
      "r": -0.1
    },
    {
      "group": "Ohio",
      "year": "2024",
      "r": -0.03
    }
  ]
}