{
  "name": "chart-senate-occasional",
  "title": "Chart data: Occasional voters have a smaller share of early ballots",
  "description": "The data behind the chart “Occasional voters have a smaller share of early ballots” (post 21), as of 2026-11-03. ColdSpark county early-vote trackers; calculations by Carmena’s Overton. Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH.",
  "updated": "2026-11-03",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Chart data: Occasional voters have a smaller share of early ballots” (CSV). Last updated 2026-11-03. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-occasional.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-senate-occasional.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#chart-senate-occasional",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "state",
      "description": "State"
    },
    {
      "name": "share2022",
      "description": "2022 occasional share (%)"
    },
    {
      "name": "share2026",
      "description": "2026 occasional share (%)"
    },
    {
      "name": "change",
      "description": "Change (points)"
    },
    {
      "name": "ballots2022",
      "description": "2022 occasional ballots"
    },
    {
      "name": "ballots2026",
      "description": "2026 occasional ballots"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "state": "All six states",
      "share2022": 16.111126318758124,
      "share2026": 13.957548668438433,
      "change": -2.1535776503196917,
      "ballots2022": 1789225,
      "ballots2026": 2133771
    },
    {
      "state": "Texas",
      "share2022": 17.094612697487634,
      "share2026": 16.655882810524496,
      "change": -0.43872988696313797,
      "ballots2022": 932180,
      "ballots2026": 1260071
    },
    {
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "share2022": 17.099662547226572,
      "share2026": 13.385357704423726,
      "change": -3.7143048428028465,
      "ballots2022": 366060,
      "ballots2026": 372093
    },
    {
      "state": "Kansas",
      "share2022": 12.50837684540122,
      "share2026": 10.190277214217264,
      "change": -2.318099631183955,
      "ballots2022": 43863,
      "ballots2026": 47214
    },
    {
      "state": "Michigan",
      "share2022": 16.136754315873585,
      "share2026": 9.92045742522698,
      "change": -6.216296890646605,
      "ballots2022": 245573,
      "ballots2026": 228223
    },
    {
      "state": "Ohio",
      "share2022": 13.07643091154365,
      "share2026": 10.718045879917376,
      "change": -2.3583850316262733,
      "ballots2022": 169634,
      "ballots2026": 184361
    },
    {
      "state": "Iowa",
      "share2022": 9.332580839479025,
      "share2026": 9.119582596253052,
      "change": -0.21299824322597338,
      "ballots2022": 31915,
      "ballots2026": 41809
    }
  ]
}