{
  "name": "midterm-indicators",
  "title": "2026 midterm indicators, 11 days out",
  "description": "Headline indicators for the 2026 midterms as of Oct 23, 2026, with the same point in earlier cycles: generic ballot average, early ballots cast, their share of prior turnout, and the D−R margin among early voters.",
  "updated": "2026-10-23",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “2026 midterm indicators, 11 days out” (CSV). Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/midterm-indicators.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#midterm-indicators",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "indicator",
      "description": "What is measured"
    },
    {
      "name": "cycle",
      "description": "Election year"
    },
    {
      "name": "value",
      "description": "Value; negative D−R values are Republican leads"
    },
    {
      "name": "unit",
      "description": "Unit of the value"
    },
    {
      "name": "as_of",
      "description": "Date of the figure (same point before Election Day)"
    },
    {
      "name": "source",
      "description": "Source of the figure"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Party is not vote choice. TargetSmart models party in 21 states holding 48% of 2026 early votes (Oct 23, 2026).",
    "2022 polls understated Republicans: R+0.6 in the average at this point, R+2.7 in the House vote.",
    "The early-ballot share uses 2022 total turnout (109,979,856) and 2024 total turnout (156,766,239) as denominators."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "indicator": "generic_ballot_average",
      "cycle": 2026,
      "value": 9,
      "unit": "D−R points",
      "as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "source": "Silver Bulletin generic ballot average, 11 days out"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "generic_ballot_average",
      "cycle": 2018,
      "value": 8.2,
      "unit": "D−R points",
      "as_of": "2018-10-26",
      "source": "538 generic ballot average, 11 days out"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "generic_ballot_average",
      "cycle": 2022,
      "value": -0.6,
      "unit": "D−R points",
      "as_of": "2022-10-28",
      "source": "538 generic ballot average, 11 days out"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "early_ballots",
      "cycle": 2026,
      "value": 21654855,
      "unit": "ballots",
      "as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "source": "NBC News early-vote tracker"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "early_ballots",
      "cycle": 2024,
      "value": 35546229,
      "unit": "ballots",
      "as_of": "2024-10-25",
      "source": "NBC News early-vote tracker, 2024, same point"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "early_ballots_share_of_prior_turnout",
      "cycle": 2026,
      "value": 19.7,
      "unit": "percent of 2022 total turnout",
      "as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "source": "NBC News early-vote tracker; 2022 total ballots cast"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "early_ballots_share_of_prior_turnout",
      "cycle": 2024,
      "value": 22.7,
      "unit": "percent of 2024 total turnout",
      "as_of": "2024-10-25",
      "source": "NBC News early-vote tracker; 2024 total ballots cast"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "early_ballots_vs_2024_same_point",
      "cycle": 2026,
      "value": 61,
      "unit": "percent of 2024 count",
      "as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "source": "NBC News early-vote tracker, 2026 and 2024"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "early_voters_dem_minus_rep",
      "cycle": 2026,
      "value": 15,
      "unit": "D−R points",
      "as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "source": "NBC News / TargetSmart (party modelled in 21 states)"
    },
    {
      "indicator": "early_voters_dem_minus_rep",
      "cycle": 2024,
      "value": 2,
      "unit": "D−R points",
      "as_of": "2024-10-25",
      "source": "NBC News / TargetSmart"
    }
  ]
}