{
  "name": "senate-battlegrounds",
  "title": "Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds",
  "description": "2026 early ballots in ten Senate battleground states as of Oct 23, 2026, 11 days out, as a percentage of each state’s count at the same point in 2024 and 2022, with the party mix of 2026 early voters from the best available source per state.",
  "updated": "2026-10-23",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds” (CSV). Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-battlegrounds.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#senate-battlegrounds",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "st",
      "description": "State abbreviation"
    },
    {
      "name": "state",
      "description": "State"
    },
    {
      "name": "early_2026",
      "description": "2026 early ballots, Oct 23, 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "early_2024_same_point",
      "description": "2024 early ballots at the same point (NBC News tracker)"
    },
    {
      "name": "early_2022_same_point",
      "description": "2022 early ballots at the same point (NBC News tracker)"
    },
    {
      "name": "pace_vs_2024_pct",
      "description": "2026 as % of 2024 at the same point, one decimal (the site shows whole numbers)"
    },
    {
      "name": "pace_vs_2022_pct",
      "description": "2026 as % of 2022 at the same point"
    },
    {
      "name": "dem_pct",
      "description": "Democratic share of early voters, %"
    },
    {
      "name": "rep_pct",
      "description": "Republican share, %"
    },
    {
      "name": "other_pct",
      "description": "Other share, %"
    },
    {
      "name": "dem_minus_rep",
      "description": "D−R points; negative = Republican lead"
    },
    {
      "name": "source_tag",
      "description": "reg. = state registration; primary = party of last primary from state records; model = vendor estimate (TargetSmart, via NBC)"
    },
    {
      "name": "party_source",
      "description": "Where the party mix comes from"
    },
    {
      "name": "party_as_of",
      "description": "Date of the party figures"
    },
    {
      "name": "note",
      "description": "State-specific caveat"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Registered party is not vote choice.",
    "Michigan, Minnesota and South Carolina party figures are TargetSmart’s model.",
    "Ohio (Oct 22) and Texas (through Oct 21) party figures come from state files not refreshed on Oct 23; Maine’s from the state file of Oct 20.",
    "The Kansas 2022 figure is a single NBC snapshot that could not be checked against the state."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "st": "AK",
      "state": "Alaska",
      "early_2026": 26450,
      "early_2024_same_point": 26995,
      "early_2022_same_point": 24018,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 98,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 110.1,
      "dem_pct": 20,
      "rep_pct": 28,
      "other_pct": 52,
      "dem_minus_rep": -8,
      "source_tag": "reg.",
      "party_source": "NBC (state registration)",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "note": "2026 count: NBC, 23 Oct; 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "KS",
      "state": "Kansas",
      "early_2026": 154074,
      "early_2024_same_point": 174898,
      "early_2022_same_point": 73262,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 88.1,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 210.3,
      "dem_pct": 47.7,
      "rep_pct": 39.1,
      "other_pct": 13.2,
      "dem_minus_rep": 8.6,
      "source_tag": "reg.",
      "party_source": "Kansas file via UF (registration), 23 Oct",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "note": "2022 figure is a single NBC snapshot and could not be checked against the state. 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "TX",
      "state": "Texas",
      "early_2026": 2747668,
      "early_2024_same_point": 3538890,
      "early_2022_same_point": 2005435,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 77.6,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 137,
      "dem_pct": 34.7,
      "rep_pct": 31.3,
      "other_pct": 34,
      "dem_minus_rep": 3.4,
      "source_tag": "primary",
      "party_source": "TX SOS rosters, last primary, through 21 Oct",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-21",
      "note": "Party mix not refreshed today (state file needs a browser download). 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "MI",
      "state": "Michigan",
      "early_2026": 986207,
      "early_2024_same_point": 1431093,
      "early_2022_same_point": 920125,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 68.9,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 107.2,
      "dem_pct": 54,
      "rep_pct": 37,
      "other_pct": 9,
      "dem_minus_rep": 17,
      "source_tag": "model",
      "party_source": "NBC/TargetSmart model",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "note": "2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "SC",
      "state": "South Carolina",
      "early_2026": 389672,
      "early_2024_same_point": 575144,
      "early_2022_same_point": 162794,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 67.8,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 239.4,
      "dem_pct": 47,
      "rep_pct": 45,
      "other_pct": 8,
      "dem_minus_rep": 2,
      "source_tag": "model",
      "party_source": "NBC/TargetSmart model",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "note": "2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "OH",
      "state": "Ohio",
      "early_2026": 922179,
      "early_2024_same_point": 1398807,
      "early_2022_same_point": 787440,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 65.9,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 117.1,
      "dem_pct": 33.3,
      "rep_pct": 27.4,
      "other_pct": 39.4,
      "dem_minus_rep": 5.9,
      "source_tag": "primary",
      "party_source": "Ohio SOS, last primary, as of 22 Oct",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-22",
      "note": "Party mix not refreshed today (state file needs a browser download). 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "IA",
      "state": "Iowa",
      "early_2026": 207774,
      "early_2024_same_point": 317952,
      "early_2022_same_point": 197980,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 65.3,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 104.9,
      "dem_pct": 50.9,
      "rep_pct": 32,
      "other_pct": 17.1,
      "dem_minus_rep": 18.9,
      "source_tag": "reg.",
      "party_source": "Iowa SOS via UF (registration), 23 Oct",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "note": "2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "ME",
      "state": "Maine",
      "early_2026": 136096,
      "early_2024_same_point": 216248,
      "early_2022_same_point": 117673,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 62.9,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 115.7,
      "dem_pct": 52.1,
      "rep_pct": 20,
      "other_pct": 27.9,
      "dem_minus_rep": 32,
      "source_tag": "reg.",
      "party_source": "Maine SOS absentee file via UF (registration), file of 20 Oct",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-20",
      "note": "2026 count: NBC, 23 Oct; 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "NH",
      "state": "New Hampshire",
      "early_2026": 18908,
      "early_2024_same_point": 37362,
      "early_2022_same_point": 21089,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 50.6,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 89.7,
      "dem_pct": 42,
      "rep_pct": 30,
      "other_pct": 28,
      "dem_minus_rep": 12,
      "source_tag": "reg.",
      "party_source": "NBC (state registration)",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "note": "2026 count: NBC, 23 Oct; 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    },
    {
      "st": "MN",
      "state": "Minnesota",
      "early_2026": 419189,
      "early_2024_same_point": 845698,
      "early_2022_same_point": 282277,
      "pace_vs_2024_pct": 49.6,
      "pace_vs_2022_pct": 148.5,
      "dem_pct": 44,
      "rep_pct": 17,
      "other_pct": 39,
      "dem_minus_rep": 27,
      "source_tag": "model",
      "party_source": "NBC/TargetSmart model",
      "party_as_of": "2026-10-23",
      "note": "2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point."
    }
  ]
}