{
  "name": "senate-early-vote-composition",
  "title": "Occasional-voter shares and party margins in six states",
  "description": "Voting-history composition, party margins and county coverage from the frozen Senate battlegrounds chart.",
  "updated": "2026-11-03",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Occasional-voter shares and party margins in six states” (CSV). Last updated 2026-11-03. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-early-vote-composition.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-early-vote-composition.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#senate-early-vote-composition",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "state",
      "description": "state"
    },
    {
      "name": "date_2022",
      "description": "date 2022"
    },
    {
      "name": "date_2026",
      "description": "date 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "ballots_2022",
      "description": "ballots 2022"
    },
    {
      "name": "ballots_2026",
      "description": "ballots 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "occasional_2022",
      "description": "occasional 2022"
    },
    {
      "name": "occasional_2026",
      "description": "occasional 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "occasional_share_2022",
      "description": "occasional share 2022"
    },
    {
      "name": "occasional_share_2026",
      "description": "occasional share 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "dem_minus_rep_2022",
      "description": "dem minus rep 2022"
    },
    {
      "name": "dem_minus_rep_2026",
      "description": "dem minus rep 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "plotted_counties",
      "description": "plotted counties"
    },
    {
      "name": "counties_occasional_share_fell",
      "description": "counties occasional share fell"
    },
    {
      "name": "counties_dem_margin_improved",
      "description": "counties dem margin improved"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Occasional means voting in zero or one of the four preceding general elections. Shares use all tracked early ballots as the denominator.",
    "Statewide sums include all available county records. County dots require at least 50 ballots in each comparison year; county counts describe this plotted subset.",
    "Margins are party-group shares of early voters, not candidate votes. Percentage-point changes differ from percentage growth."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "state": "Texas",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 5453063,
      "ballots_2026": 7565321,
      "occasional_2022": 932180,
      "occasional_2026": 1260071,
      "occasional_share_2022": 17.094613,
      "occasional_share_2026": 16.655883,
      "dem_minus_rep_2022": -9.759689,
      "dem_minus_rep_2026": -2.878662,
      "plotted_counties": 253,
      "counties_occasional_share_fell": 165,
      "counties_dem_margin_improved": 127
    },
    {
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 2140744,
      "ballots_2026": 2779851,
      "occasional_2022": 366060,
      "occasional_2026": 372093,
      "occasional_share_2022": 17.099663,
      "occasional_share_2026": 13.385358,
      "dem_minus_rep_2022": 6.7605,
      "dem_minus_rep_2026": 11.669906,
      "plotted_counties": 100,
      "counties_occasional_share_fell": 95,
      "counties_dem_margin_improved": 58
    },
    {
      "state": "Kansas",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-07",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-02",
      "ballots_2022": 350669,
      "ballots_2026": 463324,
      "occasional_2022": 43863,
      "occasional_2026": 47214,
      "occasional_share_2022": 12.508377,
      "occasional_share_2026": 10.190277,
      "dem_minus_rep_2022": -10.773122,
      "dem_minus_rep_2026": -4.628295,
      "plotted_counties": 100,
      "counties_occasional_share_fell": 86,
      "counties_dem_margin_improved": 54
    },
    {
      "state": "Michigan",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 1521824,
      "ballots_2026": 2300529,
      "occasional_2022": 245573,
      "occasional_2026": 228223,
      "occasional_share_2022": 16.136754,
      "occasional_share_2026": 9.920457,
      "dem_minus_rep_2022": 1.198627,
      "dem_minus_rep_2026": -0.960518,
      "plotted_counties": 83,
      "counties_occasional_share_fell": 83,
      "counties_dem_margin_improved": 8
    },
    {
      "state": "Ohio",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 1297250,
      "ballots_2026": 1720099,
      "occasional_2022": 169634,
      "occasional_2026": 184361,
      "occasional_share_2022": 13.076431,
      "occasional_share_2026": 10.718046,
      "dem_minus_rep_2022": 4.450954,
      "dem_minus_rep_2026": 2.063311,
      "plotted_counties": 88,
      "counties_occasional_share_fell": 88,
      "counties_dem_margin_improved": 33
    },
    {
      "state": "Iowa",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 341974,
      "ballots_2026": 458453,
      "occasional_2022": 31915,
      "occasional_2026": 41809,
      "occasional_share_2022": 9.332581,
      "occasional_share_2026": 9.119583,
      "dem_minus_rep_2022": 18.7061,
      "dem_minus_rep_2026": 11.934266,
      "plotted_counties": 99,
      "counties_occasional_share_fell": 55,
      "counties_dem_margin_improved": 11
    }
  ]
}