{
  "name": "senate-early-vote-growth",
  "title": "Early-vote growth by party and voting history in six states",
  "description": "Frozen county-summed early-ballot counts behind the November 3, 2026 Senate battlegrounds article, compared at the same number of days before Election Day in 2022.",
  "updated": "2026-11-03",
  "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licenceUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research",
  "attribution_required": true,
  "citation": "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Early-vote growth by party and voting history in six states” (CSV). Last updated 2026-11-03. https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-early-vote-growth.csv. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "csv": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-early-vote-growth.csv",
  "page": "https://carmenaresearch.com/data/#senate-early-vote-growth",
  "columns": [
    {
      "name": "state",
      "description": "state"
    },
    {
      "name": "group",
      "description": "group"
    },
    {
      "name": "date_2022",
      "description": "date 2022"
    },
    {
      "name": "date_2026",
      "description": "date 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "ballots_2022",
      "description": "ballots 2022"
    },
    {
      "name": "ballots_2026",
      "description": "ballots 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "growth_pct",
      "description": "growth pct"
    },
    {
      "name": "consistent_2022",
      "description": "consistent 2022"
    },
    {
      "name": "consistent_2026",
      "description": "consistent 2026"
    },
    {
      "name": "consistent_growth_pct",
      "description": "consistent growth pct"
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Counts cover mail and early in-person ballots recorded in the source county breakdown, not official statewide certified totals.",
    "Party is registration in North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa; modelled in Texas and Michigan; last-primary classification in Ohio. Unaffiliated / other is the source O category.",
    "Consistent means voting in two to four preceding general elections. History windows roll forward between cycles, so these are not identical people followed over time."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "state": "Texas",
      "group": "Democratic",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 2053974,
      "ballots_2026": 2902263,
      "growth_pct": 41.29989,
      "consistent_2022": 1860052,
      "consistent_2026": 2597245,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 39.632924
    },
    {
      "state": "Texas",
      "group": "Republican",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 2586176,
      "ballots_2026": 3120043,
      "growth_pct": 20.643104,
      "consistent_2022": 2383203,
      "consistent_2026": 2947339,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 23.671336
    },
    {
      "state": "Texas",
      "group": "Unaffiliated / other",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 812913,
      "ballots_2026": 1543015,
      "growth_pct": 89.813055,
      "consistent_2022": 277628,
      "consistent_2026": 760666,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 173.987494
    },
    {
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "group": "Democratic",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 815633,
      "ballots_2026": 1057477,
      "growth_pct": 29.651081,
      "consistent_2022": 686715,
      "consistent_2026": 919726,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 33.931252
    },
    {
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "group": "Republican",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 670908,
      "ballots_2026": 733071,
      "growth_pct": 9.265503,
      "consistent_2022": 567526,
      "consistent_2026": 670700,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 18.179608
    },
    {
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "group": "Unaffiliated / other",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 654203,
      "ballots_2026": 989303,
      "growth_pct": 51.222633,
      "consistent_2022": 520443,
      "consistent_2026": 817332,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 57.04544
    },
    {
      "state": "Kansas",
      "group": "Democratic",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-07",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-02",
      "ballots_2022": 134099,
      "ballots_2026": 179041,
      "growth_pct": 33.514046,
      "consistent_2022": 116102,
      "consistent_2026": 161368,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 38.988131
    },
    {
      "state": "Kansas",
      "group": "Republican",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-07",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-02",
      "ballots_2022": 171877,
      "ballots_2026": 200485,
      "growth_pct": 16.644461,
      "consistent_2022": 156580,
      "consistent_2026": 189471,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 21.005876
    },
    {
      "state": "Kansas",
      "group": "Unaffiliated / other",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-07",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-02",
      "ballots_2022": 44693,
      "ballots_2026": 83798,
      "growth_pct": 87.496923,
      "consistent_2022": 34124,
      "consistent_2026": 65271,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 91.275935
    },
    {
      "state": "Michigan",
      "group": "Democratic",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 569164,
      "ballots_2026": 804986,
      "growth_pct": 41.433049,
      "consistent_2022": 543610,
      "consistent_2026": 788964,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 45.134195
    },
    {
      "state": "Michigan",
      "group": "Republican",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 550923,
      "ballots_2026": 827083,
      "growth_pct": 50.126787,
      "consistent_2022": 513815,
      "consistent_2026": 809493,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 57.545615
    },
    {
      "state": "Michigan",
      "group": "Unaffiliated / other",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 401737,
      "ballots_2026": 668460,
      "growth_pct": 66.392441,
      "consistent_2022": 218826,
      "consistent_2026": 473849,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 116.541453
    },
    {
      "state": "Ohio",
      "group": "Democratic",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 433141,
      "ballots_2026": 473220,
      "growth_pct": 9.253107,
      "consistent_2022": 406271,
      "consistent_2026": 448667,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 10.435399
    },
    {
      "state": "Ohio",
      "group": "Republican",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 375401,
      "ballots_2026": 437729,
      "growth_pct": 16.603046,
      "consistent_2022": 355011,
      "consistent_2026": 424851,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 19.67263
    },
    {
      "state": "Ohio",
      "group": "Unaffiliated / other",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 488708,
      "ballots_2026": 809150,
      "growth_pct": 65.569215,
      "consistent_2022": 366334,
      "consistent_2026": 662220,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 80.769462
    },
    {
      "state": "Iowa",
      "group": "Democratic",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 175631,
      "ballots_2026": 210443,
      "growth_pct": 19.821102,
      "consistent_2022": 162212,
      "consistent_2026": 194340,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 19.80618
    },
    {
      "state": "Iowa",
      "group": "Republican",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 111661,
      "ballots_2026": 155730,
      "growth_pct": 39.466779,
      "consistent_2022": 102748,
      "consistent_2026": 146583,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 42.662631
    },
    {
      "state": "Iowa",
      "group": "Unaffiliated / other",
      "date_2022": "2022-11-06",
      "date_2026": "2026-11-01",
      "ballots_2022": 54682,
      "ballots_2026": 92280,
      "growth_pct": 68.757544,
      "consistent_2022": 45099,
      "consistent_2026": 75721,
      "consistent_growth_pct": 67.89951
    }
  ]
}