--- title: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research | Election modelling and research" canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/" publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research" license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)" --- # Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research | Election modelling and research Non-partisan US election research. 2026 midterms, Oct 23, 2026: generic ballot D+9.0, 21.7M early ballots cast. Every figure names its source. ## Our goal The most accurate predictive modelling and research for elections, behaviour and the Overton window. We are a new, non-partisan US research firm. The Overton window is the range of ideas the public treats as acceptable at a given time. Accuracy is a goal we can be checked against: we will publish every forecast before the result and score it after. ## The 2026 midterms Our first public benchmark. Election Day is Nov 3, 2026; these figures are from Oct 23, 11 days out. Of every 100 people who have voted early, 49 are Democrats, 34 Republicans and 17 neither, by NBC News and TargetSmart’s count. At the same point in 2024 it was 42, 40 and 18. TargetSmart models party in 21 states, and party is not vote choice. The generic ballot average is D+9.0. Americans have cast 21.7 million early ballots, 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout. Our House and Senate forecast is not yet published. The figures shown with it are placeholders. ## Latest from the blog Short data essays. Each takes one number, shows it in one chart and names the source. ## Get new posts by email Each email is one new post, with its chart and source. Unsubscribe any time. ## Data, polling and research for commercial use Public posts and headline figures are free to use with credit. For more depth, or for work on your own question, we offer licensed data, custom polling and in-depth research. Tell us what you need. ## Non-profits and researchers Non-profits and academic researchers can have access to our data and research on request. Tell us about the project. ## Contact Write to us about commercial use, research access, press or anything else. We reply by email. **Early voters are D+15 this year. At the same point in 2024 they were D+2.** | Party | 2026 | 2024, same point | | --- | --- | --- | | Democrats | 49 | 42 | | Republicans | 34 | 40 | | Other | 17 | 18 | Source: NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026; 2024 at the same point (Oct 25, 2024). Caveat: TargetSmart models party in 21 states, and party is not vote choice. Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020. Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-early-mix.csv **Generic ballot 11 days out, against the final House vote** | Year | Average, 11 days out | Final House vote | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 | D+9 | – | | 2018 | D+8.2 | D+8.6 | | 2022 | R+0.6 | R+2.7 | Source: Silver Bulletin average (2026); 538 average (2018, 2022). Caveat: 2022 polls understated Republicans: R+0.6 in the average, R+2.7 in the House vote. Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-generic-ballot.csv **21.7M early ballots so far, against 2024 at the same point** | Measure | 2026 | 2024, same point | | --- | --- | --- | | Early ballots cast (millions) | 21.7 | – | | Share of total turnout, % (2026 against 2022; 2024 against 2024) | 19.7 | 22.7 | | Raw early ballots, 2024 = 100 | 61 | 100 | Source: State early-vote reports at 11 days out; total turnout 2022 and 2024. Caveat: The 2026 share is of 2022’s total turnout; the 2024 share is of 2024’s. Raw ballots are at 61% of 2024’s pace, a presidential year. Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-banked-share.csv **Forecast: not yet published.** Placeholder figures, not a prediction: House, Democrats 228 seats (range 211–246), 74 in 100 chance of a majority; Senate, Democrats 48 seats (range 45–51), Republicans 66 in 100 to keep control. ## Latest posts - [Nearly half of the ‘party’ in early-vote trackers is a model](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/party-in-early-vote-trackers-is-a-model/): In 21 states, NBC’s party split is modelled by TargetSmart. Those states hold 48% of this year’s early votes. - [Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9 points, ahead of 2018’s wave](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-lead-generic-ballot-by-9-points/): The Silver Bulletin average is D+9.0 at 11 days out. At the same point, 2018 stood at D+8.2 and 2022 at R+0.6. - [Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-early-vote-edge-2-to-15/): Early voters so far are D 49, R 34, Other 17. At this point in 2024 they were D 42, R 40, Other 18. - [One in five of 2022’s voters have already voted](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/one-in-five-2022-voters-already-voted/): 21.7M early ballots equal 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout. At the same point in 2024 the figure was 22.7%. All posts: https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/