# Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research

> A new, non-partisan US research firm for election research and predictive modelling. It publishes short, sourced data essays on the 2026 midterms (early vote, party data, voter blocks, polls) and the free public data behind them. Its stated goal is the most accurate predictive modelling for elections, behaviour and the Overton window, scored openly against results.

Every page has a Markdown copy at <page-url>index.md (for example https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/party-in-early-vote-trackers-is-a-model/index.md; /blog/<slug>.md also works). Figures dated Oct 23, 2026 are real data as of that date; the House and Senate forecast is not yet published, and any forecast numbers shown are labelled placeholders, not predictions. Post dates other than Oct 23, 2026 are illustrative.

## Key pages
- [Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research | Election modelling and research](https://carmenaresearch.com/): Non-partisan US election research. 2026 midterms, Oct 23, 2026: generic ballot D+9.0, 21.7M early ballots cast. Every figure names its source.
- [2026 midterms, 11 days out](https://carmenaresearch.com/midterms/): The 2026 midterms on Oct 23, 2026: generic ballot D+9.0, 21.7M early ballots, early voters D+15 vs D+2 in 2024, and early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds.
- [Research](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/): All 15 posts, newest first.
- [Data](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/): Public data behind Carmena’s Overton charts, free to use with credit under CC BY 4.0. In-depth data, polling and research are available for commercial use.
- [Methodology](https://carmenaresearch.com/methodology/): How Carmena’s Overton sources, labels and checks election data, how forecasts will be published before results and scored after, and what every future poll will disclose.
- [Track record](https://carmenaresearch.com/track-record/): Carmena’s Overton scores every forecast against the result. No forecasts have been scored yet; the 2026 midterms, on Nov 3, 2026, are the first.
- [About](https://carmenaresearch.com/about/): Carmena’s Overton is a new, non-partisan US research firm. Our goal is the most accurate predictive modelling for elections, behaviour and the Overton window.

## Research posts
- [Nearly half of the ‘party’ in early-vote trackers is a model](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/party-in-early-vote-trackers-is-a-model/): In 21 states, NBC’s party split is modelled by TargetSmart. Those states hold 48% of this year’s early votes.
- [Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9 points, ahead of 2018’s wave](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-lead-generic-ballot-by-9-points/): The Silver Bulletin average is D+9.0 at 11 days out. At the same point, 2018 stood at D+8.2 and 2022 at R+0.6.
- [Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-early-vote-edge-2-to-15/): Early voters so far are D 49, R 34, Other 17. At this point in 2024 they were D 42, R 40, Other 18.
- [One in five of 2022’s voters have already voted](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/one-in-five-2022-voters-already-voted/): 21.7M early ballots equal 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout. At the same point in 2024 the figure was 22.7%.
- [Senate battlegrounds are voting early at 50–98% of their 2024 pace](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/battlegrounds-early-vote-50-98-percent-of-2024-pace/): None of the ten states is ahead of 2024, a presidential year. Against 2022, the last midterm, nine of the ten are ahead.
- [Texas Democrats are bringing new voters; Republicans are bringing regulars](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/texas-democrats-new-voters-republicans-regulars/): 8% of Democratic early voters in Texas are new, against 4% of Republicans. 84% of Republicans voted in both 2022 and 2024.
- [Texas early voters: D+3 on the state’s own records, R+1 in the tracker](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/texas-early-voters-d3-state-records/): Joining state early-vote rosters to 2026 primary rosters gives D 34.7, R 31.3, Other 34.0 across 2.16M early voters.
- [In Ohio, every source agrees on the margin and disagrees on independents](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/ohio-sources-agree-on-margin-not-independents/): The state file says D+5.9 with 39.4% Other. The tracker says D+6 with 8% Other.
- [North Carolina’s unaffiliated primary voters lean Democratic, 61–39](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/north-carolina-unaffiliated-primary-voters-61-39/): Of unaffiliated early voters with a primary history, 160K last took a Democratic ballot and 102K a Republican one.
- [Your last primary is a good guess at your party, until it isn’t](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/last-primary-as-party-guess/): Tested on 1,096,068 North Carolina early voters, the last-primary shortcut gets the margin right and the Other share badly wrong.
- [Unaffiliated voters don’t split the same way twice](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/unaffiliated-voters-dont-split-the-same-way-twice/): In North Carolina in 2024, unaffiliated voters were about 47% Democratic for President and about 77% for Governor.
- [County maps undercount Democratic early voters by about 16 points](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/county-maps-undercount-democratic-early-voters/): Weighting each county’s early votes by its 2024 result understated the Democratic margin by 7 to 41 points in 8 states with known party.
- [Only four places hand out voter files for free](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/four-places-free-voter-files/): North Carolina, Ohio, Clark County NV and some Texas counties. Elsewhere you pay, file a form, open an account or prove who you are.
- [New voters pulled counties toward Biden in 2020, and did nothing in 2024](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/new-voters-2020-swing-not-2024/): County shares of new voters tracked the presidential swing at 0.42 in North Carolina and 0.50 in Ohio in 2020. In 2024 the link was about zero.
- [Bellwether counties barely exist in midterms](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/bellwether-counties-barely-exist-in-midterms/): Only 13–16% of counties moved with the nation, within 4 points, in most House midterms. A perfect record adds 0–4 points of edge.

## Data and citation
- Licence: public posts, charts and data files are CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Credit “Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research” and link to the page or file used.
- How to cite a post: Research team. “<post title>.” Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research, <date>. <URL>. Each post has a “Cite this” box; MCP results carry a ready citation.
- Figures quoted from other organisations (NBC News / TargetSmart, Silver Bulletin, 538 and others) remain theirs; credit them too.
- [Licence](https://carmenaresearch.com/licence/): Carmena’s Overton public posts, charts and data are licensed CC BY 4.0. How to credit and cite them, and what the licence does not cover.
- [Early voters by party, national, 11 days out](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/early-voters-by-party.csv): The national party split of early voters 11 days before Election Day in 2026, 2024 and 2022, as published by the NBC News / TargetSmart early-vote tracker. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/early-voters-by-party.json
- [Generic ballot 11 days out and the final House vote](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/generic-ballot.csv): The generic ballot polling average 11 days before Election Day and on Election Day, with the national House popular vote, for 2018, 2022 and 2026. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/generic-ballot.json
- [2026 midterm indicators, 11 days out](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/midterm-indicators.csv): Headline indicators for the 2026 midterms as of Oct 23, 2026, with the same point in earlier cycles: generic ballot average, early ballots cast, their share of prior turnout, and the D−R margin among early voters. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/midterm-indicators.json
- [Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-battlegrounds.csv): 2026 early ballots in ten Senate battleground states as of Oct 23, 2026, 11 days out, as a percentage of each state’s count at the same point in 2024 and 2022, with the party mix of 2026 early voters from the best available source per state. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/senate-battlegrounds.json
- [Chart data: Generic ballot 11 days out, against the final House vote](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-generic-ballot.csv): The data behind the chart “Generic ballot 11 days out, against the final House vote” (post 1), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-generic-ballot.json
- [Chart data: 21.7M early ballots so far, against 2024 at the same point](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-banked-share.csv): The data behind the chart “21.7M early ballots so far, against 2024 at the same point” (post 2), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-banked-share.json
- [Chart data: Early voters are D+15 this year. At the same point in 2024 they were D+2.](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-early-mix.csv): The data behind the chart “Early voters are D+15 this year. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-early-mix.json
- [Chart data: Where the tracker’s party split is a model](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-modelled-share.csv): The data behind the chart “Where the tracker’s party split is a model” (post 4), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-modelled-share.json
- [Chart data: North Carolina: party of last primary against registration](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-primary-proxy.csv): The data behind the chart “North Carolina: party of last primary against registration” (post 5), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-primary-proxy.json
- [Chart data: North Carolina unaffiliated early voters by last primary ballot](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-nc-unaffiliated.csv): The data behind the chart “North Carolina unaffiliated early voters by last primary ballot” (post 6), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-nc-unaffiliated.json
- [Chart data: North Carolina 2024: unaffiliated voters for President and for Governor](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-unaffiliated-split.csv): The data behind the chart “North Carolina 2024: unaffiliated voters for President and for Governor” (post 7), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-unaffiliated-split.json
- [Chart data: How far the county method understated the Democratic early-vote margin](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-county-bias.csv): The data behind the chart “How far the county method understated the Democratic early-vote margin” (post 8), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-county-bias.json
- [Chart data: Texas early voters: state records against the tracker](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-tx-records.csv): The data behind the chart “Texas early voters: state records against the tracker” (post 9), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-tx-records.json
- [Chart data: Ohio early voters: state file against the tracker](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-oh-agree.csv): The data behind the chart “Ohio early voters: state file against the tracker” (post 10), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-oh-agree.json
- [Chart data: Texas 2026 early voters by vote history and party](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-tx-new-voters.csv): The data behind the chart “Texas 2026 early voters by vote history and party” (post 11), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-tx-new-voters.json
- [Chart data: Share of counties that moved with the nation, within 4 points](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-bellwethers.csv): The data behind the chart “Share of counties that moved with the nation, within 4 points” (post 12), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-bellwethers.json
- [Chart data: Correlation of county new-voter share with the presidential swing](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-new-voters-swing.csv): The data behind the chart “Correlation of county new-voter share with the presidential swing” (post 13), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-new-voters-swing.json
- [Chart data: Where voter files are free, with no account or form](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-voterfile-access.csv): The data behind the chart “Where voter files are free, with no account or form” (post 14), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-voterfile-access.json
- [Chart data: Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds: 50% to 98% of 2024’s pace](https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-battleground-pace.csv): The data behind the chart “Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds: 50% to 98% of 2024’s pace” (post 15), as of 2026-10-23. JSON: https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-battleground-pace.json

## For agents
- MCP server: https://carmenaresearch.com/mcp (Streamable HTTP, stateless, revision 2026-07-28 with fallback for initialize-based clients; no auth for free tools; CORS open). Server card: https://carmenaresearch.com/.well-known/mcp.json.
- Tools: search_posts(query, topic?), get_post(slug), list_public_data(), get_public_data(name), list_datasets(), get_dataset(id), purchase_dataset(id). Every result carries a citation {text, url, licence} and attribution_required: true.
- In-depth dataset catalogue (agent-only; not listed on the human pages): aggregate datasets derived from public state records, licensed for commercial use and available on demand by online purchase or x402 payment once enabled. Purchase is not enabled yet; use the contact page. Non-profits and academic researchers can ask for access. Aggregates only, never individual voter records.
  - county-midterm-results-2002-2022: County midterm results for U.S. House, Senate and Governor, 2002–2022. Democratic, Republican and other votes by county for U.S. House, U.S. Senate and Governor in every midterm from 2002 to 2022, built from precinct and county returns, with coverage flags. National House vote within 0.3 points of published figures for 2006–2022. (county, Midterm generals 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022; available on request, Quote on request)
  - nc-early-voters-party-by-county-2026: North Carolina 2026 early voters by registered party, by county. Accepted early and mail ballots for the Nov 3, 2026 general in each of North Carolina’s 100 counties, by registered party, as of Oct 22, 2026. Comes with the statewide test of the last-primary party proxy against registration (D+21.2 proxy vs D+20.5 true; Other 24.4% vs 34.4%). (county, 2026 general, early ballots accepted through Oct 22, 2026; available on request, Quote on request)
  - nc-voter-blocks-by-county-2016-2024: North Carolina new and returning voters by party, method and county, 2016–2024. Voters in each North Carolina general election from 2016 to 2024, by county, party at the time of voting, voting method and whether they had voted in an earlier general since 2016 (new, returning, lapsed). (county, General elections 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024; available on request, Quote on request)
  - nc-voter-profile-by-county-2016-2024: North Carolina voters by status, registration timing and age band, by county, 2016–2024. Voters in each North Carolina general election by county, party, new or returning status, when they registered relative to the previous general, and age band. (county, General elections 2016–2024; available on request, Quote on request)
  - oh-early-voters-last-primary-by-county-2026: Ohio 2026 early voters by last-primary party, by county. Returned absentee and early ballots for the Nov 3, 2026 general in each of Ohio’s 88 counties, by the party of the voter’s last partisan primary, with approximate mail and in-person splits and unreturned requests. From the Secretary of State report of Oct 22, 2026, 11:00 ET. (county, 2026 general, ballots returned through Oct 21, 2026; available on request, Quote on request)
  - oh-voter-blocks-by-county-2016-2024: Ohio new and returning voters by primary party and county, 2016–2024. Voters in each Ohio November general from 2016 to 2024, by county, party of last partisan primary in the two years before the election, and whether they had any earlier general-election vote on record. From the statewide voter file of Oct 17, 2026; covers currently registered voters only. (county, General elections 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024; available on request, Quote on request)
  - tx-early-voters-2026-primary-history-by-county: Texas 2026 early voters by 2026 primary history, by county. Texas early voters for the Nov 3, 2026 general, through Oct 21, 2026, in each of the state’s 254 counties, by the party of their 2026 primary or runoff ballot. Built by joining the Secretary of State Early Voting Roster to 2026 primary and runoff rosters. Includes a four-county check (Tarrant, Dallas, Bexar, Hidalgo) adding 2022 and 2024 primaries. (county, 2026 general, early votes Oct 14–21, 2026; available on request, Quote on request)
- Commercial use, licensing and research access: https://carmenaresearch.com/contact/?topic=commercial

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