--- title: "2026 midterms, 11 days out | Carmena’s Overton" canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/midterms/" publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research" license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)" --- # 2026 midterms, 11 days out | Carmena’s Overton The 2026 midterms on Oct 23, 2026: generic ballot D+9.0, 21.7M early ballots, early voters D+15 vs D+2 in 2024, and early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds. Our first public benchmark. Everything on this page is real data collected Oct 22–23, 2026, except the forecast, which is not yet published and is shown as a placeholder. Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Election Day is Nov 3, 2026. ## Early voters by party ### What this shows Of every 100 people who have voted early so far, 49 are Democrats, 34 are Republicans and 17 are neither, by NBC News and TargetSmart’s count. At the same point in 2024 it was 42, 40 and 18. The Democratic lead among early voters grew from 2 points to 15. ### What it doesn’t show It is not a vote count. Registered party is not vote choice, and Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020, so early voters lean more Democratic than the final electorate will. At the same point in 2022, early voters were D+12, and Republicans won the House vote that year. In 21 states, which hold 48% of early votes, the party label is TargetSmart’s model rather than a state record. ## Generic ballot ### What this shows Asked which party they would vote for in their House race, poll respondents favour Democrats by 9.0 points on the Silver Bulletin average, 11 days out. At the same point in 2018, 538’s average was D+8.2, and Democrats won the House vote by 8.6. In 2022 it was R+0.6, and Republicans won by 2.7. ### What it doesn’t show It is not a seat count, and it can miss. In 2022 polls understated Republicans by about 2 points from this point on. ## Early ballots ### What this shows Americans have cast 21.7 million early ballots. That equals 19.7% of everyone who voted in 2022. At the same point in 2024, early ballots were 22.7% of that year’s turnout. ### What it doesn’t show It is not a turnout forecast. Raw ballots are at 61% of 2024’s count, but 2024 was a presidential year with about 47 million more voters. ## Our House and Senate forecast Not yet published. We will publish it before Election Day and score it against the result afterwards. Until then the numbers below are placeholders, there to show how the forecast will read. They are not a prediction. Placeholder, forecast not yet published. House: Democrats 228 seats, range 211–246; 74 in 100 chance of a Democratic majority. Placeholder, forecast not yet published. Senate: Democrats 48 seats, range 45–51; 66 in 100 chance Republicans keep control. ## Senate battlegrounds ### What this shows How fast each of ten Senate battleground states is voting early against 2024 at the same point, and the party mix of those early voters from the best source each state allows. None is ahead of its 2024 pace: Alaska is closest at 98% and Minnesota furthest behind at 50%. Against 2022, the last midterm, nine of the ten are ahead. Early voters lean Democratic in nine of the ten. ### What it doesn’t show Who is winning. A D+19 early electorate in Iowa is a registration count, not a vote margin, and the three model-tagged states (Michigan, Minnesota, South Carolina) carry the most uncertainty. Ohio and Texas party figures come from state files of Oct 22 and through Oct 21, which were not refreshed on Oct 23. Source tags: reg. = state registration file; primary = party of last primary from state records; model = vendor estimate (TargetSmart, via NBC). ## Midterm research Posts on the early vote, party data, polls, voter blocks and bellwethers. Post dates other than Oct 23, 2026 are illustrative. **Early voters are D+15 this year. At the same point in 2024 they were D+2.** | Party | 2026 | 2024, same point | | --- | --- | --- | | Democrats | 49 | 42 | | Republicans | 34 | 40 | | Other | 17 | 18 | Source: NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026; 2024 at the same point (Oct 25, 2024). Caveat: TargetSmart models party in 21 states, and party is not vote choice. Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020. Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-early-mix.csv **Generic ballot 11 days out, against the final House vote** | Year | Average, 11 days out | Final House vote | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 | D+9 | – | | 2018 | D+8.2 | D+8.6 | | 2022 | R+0.6 | R+2.7 | Source: Silver Bulletin average (2026); 538 average (2018, 2022). Caveat: 2022 polls understated Republicans: R+0.6 in the average, R+2.7 in the House vote. Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-generic-ballot.csv **21.7M early ballots so far, against 2024 at the same point** | Measure | 2026 | 2024, same point | | --- | --- | --- | | Early ballots cast (millions) | 21.7 | – | | Share of total turnout, % (2026 against 2022; 2024 against 2024) | 19.7 | 22.7 | | Raw early ballots, 2024 = 100 | 61 | 100 | Source: State early-vote reports at 11 days out; total turnout 2022 and 2024. Caveat: The 2026 share is of 2022’s total turnout; the 2024 share is of 2024’s. Raw ballots are at 61% of 2024’s pace, a presidential year. Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-banked-share.csv **Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds: 50% to 98% of 2024’s pace** | State | Early ballots, % of 2024 at the same point | D−R of early voters (points) | Party source | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alaska | 98% | R+8 | reg. | | Kansas | 88% | D+8.6 | reg. | | Texas | 78% | D+3.4 | primary | | Michigan | 69% | D+17 | model | | South Carolina | 68% | D+2 | model | | Ohio | 66% | D+5.9 | primary | | Iowa | 65% | D+18.9 | reg. | | Maine | 63% | D+32 | reg. | | New Hampshire | 51% | D+12 | reg. | | Minnesota | 50% | D+27 | model | Source: State early-vote data via UF Election Lab and NBC News, Oct 23, 2026, against NBC at the same point in 2024. Party mix: state registration files (reg.), party of last primary from state records (primary; Ohio as of Oct 22, Texas through Oct 21), or vendor estimate, TargetSmart via NBC (model). Caveat: 2024 was a presidential year, so every state is below its 2024 count. Party mix is not vote choice. Data (CSV, CC BY 4.0): https://carmenaresearch.com/data/public/chart-battleground-pace.csv **Forecast: not yet published.** Placeholder figures, not a prediction: House, Democrats 228 seats (range 211–246), 74 in 100 chance of a majority; Senate, Democrats 48 seats (range 45–51), Republicans 66 in 100 to keep control. ## Latest posts - [Nearly half of the ‘party’ in early-vote trackers is a model](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/party-in-early-vote-trackers-is-a-model/): In 21 states, NBC’s party split is modelled by TargetSmart. Those states hold 48% of this year’s early votes. - [Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9 points, ahead of 2018’s wave](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-lead-generic-ballot-by-9-points/): The Silver Bulletin average is D+9.0 at 11 days out. At the same point, 2018 stood at D+8.2 and 2022 at R+0.6. - [Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/democrats-early-vote-edge-2-to-15/): Early voters so far are D 49, R 34, Other 17. At this point in 2024 they were D 42, R 40, Other 18. - [One in five of 2022’s voters have already voted](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/one-in-five-2022-voters-already-voted/): 21.7M early ballots equal 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout. At the same point in 2024 the figure was 22.7%. - [Senate battlegrounds are voting early at 50–98% of their 2024 pace](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/battlegrounds-early-vote-50-98-percent-of-2024-pace/): None of the ten states is ahead of 2024, a presidential year. Against 2022, the last midterm, nine of the ten are ahead. - [Texas Democrats are bringing new voters; Republicans are bringing regulars](https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/texas-democrats-new-voters-republicans-regulars/): 8% of Democratic early voters in Texas are new, against 4% of Republicans. 84% of Republicans voted in both 2022 and 2024. All posts: https://carmenaresearch.com/blog/