---
title: "Track record | Carmena’s Overton"
canonical: "https://carmenaresearch.com/track-record/"
publisher: "Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research"
license: "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)"
---


# Track record | Carmena’s Overton

Carmena’s Overton scores every forecast against the result. No forecasts have been scored yet; the 2026 midterms, on Nov 3, 2026, are the first.

No forecasts have been scored yet.

Our goal is the most accurate predictive modelling for elections, and this page is where that goal will be tested. The 2026 midterms are our first public benchmark. Election Day is Nov 3, 2026.

## What will appear here

For each forecast, once the result is certified:

- the forecast as published, with its date;
- the result;
- the seat error against our median;
- whether the result fell inside our stated range;
- for chances of control, a probability score (the Brier score).

Misses will be reported the same way as hits. The method is on the methodology page.

## Status

Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Our 2026 House and Senate forecast is not yet published.