Nearly half of the ‘party’ in early-vote trackers is a model
In 21 states, NBC’s party split is modelled by TargetSmart. Those states hold 48% of this year’s early votes.
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The 2026 midterms
Our first public benchmark. Election Day is Nov 3, 2026; these figures are from Oct 23, 11 days out.
Real data · Oct 23, 2026
Of every 100 early voters, by partySource: NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026; 2024 at the same point (Oct 25, 2024). Caveat: TargetSmart models party in 21 states, and party is not vote choice. Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020. Why that matters
Data table
| Party | 2026 | 2024, same point |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 49 | 42 |
| Republicans | 34 | 40 |
| Other | 17 | 18 |
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
- Generic ballot average
- D+9.0
- 11 days out. At the same point in 2018: D+8.2. In 2022: R+0.6. Silver Bulletin average (2026); 538 average (2018, 2022).
- Early ballots cast
- 21.7M
- 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout, and 61% of 2024’s early ballots at the same point. State early-vote reports.
Placeholder · forecast not yet published
- House
- Democrats 228 seats, range 211–246. 74 in 100 chance of a majority.
- Senate
- Democrats 48 seats, range 45–51. Republicans 66 in 100 to keep control.
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All 15 postsDemocrats lead the generic ballot by 9 points, ahead of 2018’s wave
The Silver Bulletin average is D+9.0 at 11 days out. At the same point, 2018 stood at D+8.2 and 2022 at R+0.6.
Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15
Early voters so far are D 49, R 34, Other 17. At this point in 2024 they were D 42, R 40, Other 18.
One in five of 2022’s voters have already voted
21.7M early ballots equal 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout. At the same point in 2024 the figure was 22.7%.
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