Research
All 15 posts, newest first. Each takes one data point, shows it in one chart and names the source.
Showing all 15 posts. Post dates other than Oct 23, 2026 are illustrative.
Nearly half of the ‘party’ in early-vote trackers is a model
In 21 states, NBC’s party split is modelled by TargetSmart. Those states hold 48% of this year’s early votes.
Source: NBC News early-vote tracker (party modelled by TargetSmart in 21 states), accessed Oct 23, 2026; official files in Iowa, Maine and North Carolina; Ohio SOS absentee file; Texas SOS early-vote rosters and 2026 primary rosters. Where it could be checked against registration files, the model matched official counts within about 1 point. “Not marked as modelled” is NBC’s labelling, not a check we ran.
Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9 points, ahead of 2018’s wave
The Silver Bulletin average is D+9.0 at 11 days out. At the same point, 2018 stood at D+8.2 and 2022 at R+0.6.
Source: Silver Bulletin generic ballot average (2026); 538 generic ballot average (2018, 2022); final House popular vote for 2018 (Cook Political Report) and 2022. 2022 polls understated Republicans. The average was R+0.6 at this point and the House vote was R+2.7.
Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15
Early voters so far are D 49, R 34, Other 17. At this point in 2024 they were D 42, R 40, Other 18.
Source: NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026, and its 2024 and 2022 editions at the same point. Party is not vote choice, Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020, and TargetSmart models party in 21 states.
One in five of 2022’s voters have already voted
21.7M early ballots equal 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout. At the same point in 2024 the figure was 22.7%.
Source: Early ballot counts compiled by the NBC News early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026, and its 2024 edition at the same point; total ballots cast in 2022 and 2024. Raw ballots are at 61% of 2024’s pace, but 2024 was a presidential year with higher turnout.
Senate battlegrounds are voting early at 50–98% of their 2024 pace
None of the ten states is ahead of 2024, a presidential year. Against 2022, the last midterm, nine of the ten are ahead.
Source: 2026 early-vote counts from state data via UF Election Lab and the NBC News tracker, Oct 23, 2026; 2022 and 2024 counts at the same point from the NBC News tracker; party mix from state registration, state primary records or the NBC News / TargetSmart model, as tagged. Ohio and Texas party figures are from state files of Oct 22 and through Oct 21; Michigan, Minnesota and South Carolina party figures are TargetSmart’s model.
Texas Democrats are bringing new voters; Republicans are bringing regulars
8% of Democratic early voters in Texas are new, against 4% of Republicans. 84% of Republicans voted in both 2022 and 2024.
Source: NBC News / TargetSmart Texas early-vote page, vote history by party, Oct 23, 2026 (party modelled by TargetSmart in Texas). Party here is TargetSmart’s model, not a state record. Nationally, 80% of early voters voted in both 2022 and 2024.
Texas early voters: D+3 on the state’s own records, R+1 in the tracker
Joining state early-vote rosters to 2026 primary rosters gives D 34.7, R 31.3, Other 34.0 across 2.16M early voters.
Source: Texas Secretary of State Early Voting Roster joined to 2026 primary and runoff rosters; 2022 and 2024 primary rosters from Tarrant, Dallas, Bexar and Hidalgo counties; NBC News / TargetSmart for comparison. State records run through Oct 21; the tracker figure is from Oct 23, and the Democratic share has been falling day by day. Adding 2022 and 2024 primaries in four counties (25% of votes) moved the margin only about 0.6 points.
In Ohio, every source agrees on the margin and disagrees on independents
The state file says D+5.9 with 39.4% Other. The tracker says D+6 with 8% Other.
Source: Ohio Secretary of State absentee and early voting export (party from last primary), report of Oct 22, 2026, 11:00 ET; NBC News / TargetSmart for comparison. In the state file, Other means no recent partisan primary, not a third party. Two vendor models put the margin 3 to 4 points more Democratic.
North Carolina’s unaffiliated primary voters lean Democratic, 61–39
Of unaffiliated early voters with a primary history, 160K last took a Democratic ballot and 102K a Republican one.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections 2026 absentee and early-vote file joined to the statewide voter history file. A primary ballot is not a general-election vote, and 30% of unaffiliated early voters have no primary history at all.
Your last primary is a good guess at your party, until it isn’t
Tested on 1,096,068 North Carolina early voters, the last-primary shortcut gets the margin right and the Other share badly wrong.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections 2026 absentee and early-vote file (registered party) and statewide voter history file (primary participation 2017–2026). The proxy moves unaffiliated primary voters into a party, and moves partisans who skip primaries into Other.
Unaffiliated voters don’t split the same way twice
In North Carolina in 2024, unaffiliated voters were about 47% Democratic for President and about 77% for Governor.
Source: North Carolina 2024 turnout by registered party (State Board of Elections voter history) and certified 2024 results; exit poll and AP VoteCast for comparison. Estimated from totals, assuming every registered Democrat voted Democratic and every registered Republican voted Republican.
County maps undercount Democratic early voters by about 16 points
Weighting each county’s early votes by its 2024 result understated the Democratic margin by 7 to 41 points in 8 states with known party.
Source: 2026 early votes by county from state files via the UF Election Lab mirror; party registration of early voters in 8 states; 2024 county presidential results. Registration is not vote choice either, so the benchmark has its own bias in states with old Democratic registration, such as Pennsylvania.
Only four places hand out voter files for free
North Carolina, Ohio, Clark County NV and some Texas counties. Elsewhere you pay, file a form, open an account or prove who you are.
Source: State and county election office access policies for all 50 states and DC, checked Oct 22–23, 2026. Cheapest paid files are Pennsylvania at $20 and Alaska at about $21. Several states restrict commercial use.
New voters pulled counties toward Biden in 2020, and did nothing in 2024
County shares of new voters tracked the presidential swing at 0.42 in North Carolina and 0.50 in Ohio in 2020. In 2024 the link was about zero.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections voter history and registration files; Ohio Secretary of State statewide voter file; county presidential results 2016–2024. New unaffiliated voters in North Carolina correlated at 0.71 in 2020. Correlations across counties do not show how individual new voters voted.
Bellwether counties barely exist in midterms
Only 13–16% of counties moved with the nation, within 4 points, in most House midterms. A perfect record adds 0–4 points of edge.
Source: County-level U.S. House results 2002–2022 built from MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Election Data Archive and OpenElections returns; national House popular vote. County House results mix contested and uncontested races; the contested-only sample changes pass rates by 0–5 points.