Data
The data behind our public charts and headline figures is free for anyone to use, with credit. Last updated Oct 23, 2026.
Public data
Each file is a CSV, with a JSON copy, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). Credit “Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research” and link to the page you used.
- 2026 midterm indicators: generic ballot, early ballots cast and their share of past turnout, as of Oct 23, 2026.
- Early voters by party, national: the NBC News / TargetSmart national split for 2026, 2024 and 2022 at the same point.
- Generic ballot, 11 days out: 2018, 2022 and 2026, with the final House vote.
- Senate battlegrounds: early-vote pace against 2024 and the party mix of early voters in ten states, with a source tag for each.
Figures we quote from other organisations, such as NBC News / TargetSmart, the Silver Bulletin and 538, remain theirs. Credit them as well when you reuse those figures.
Early voters by party, national, 11 days out
The national party split of early voters 11 days before Election Day in 2026, 2024 and 2022, as published by the NBC News / TargetSmart early-vote tracker.
Last updated .
Data table
| cycle | as_of | dem_pct | rep_pct | other_pct | dem_minus_rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-10-23 | 49 | 34 | 17 | 15 |
| 2024 | 2024-10-25 | 42 | 40 | 18 | 2 |
| 2022 | 2022-10-28 | 47 | 35 | 18 | 12 |
Columns
cycle- Election year
as_of- Date of the reading
dem_pct- Democratic share of early voters, %
rep_pct- Republican share, %
other_pct- Other share, %
dem_minus_rep- Democratic minus Republican share, points
Caveats: Party is not vote choice. Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020. TargetSmart models party in 21 states; on Oct 23, 2026 they held 48% of early votes. NBC publishes whole percentages, so each share is precise to about half a point.
Third-party figures: These shares are NBC News / TargetSmart figures. Our licence covers our compilation; credit NBC News / TargetSmart as the source.
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Early voters by party, national, 11 days out” (CSV). Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Generic ballot 11 days out and the final House vote
The generic ballot polling average 11 days before Election Day and on Election Day, with the national House popular vote, for 2018, 2022 and 2026. Values are D−R points; negative values are Republican leads.
Last updated .
Data table
| cycle | average_11_days_out | average_election_day | house_popular_vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| 2022 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| 2026 | 9 |
Columns
cycle- Election year
average_11_days_out- Average 11 days before Election Day, D−R points
average_election_day- Average on Election Day, D−R points
house_popular_vote- National House popular vote, D−R points
Caveats: 2026 uses the Silver Bulletin average; 2018 and 2022 use 538’s average. The methods differ. 2022 polls understated Republicans by about 2 points from this point.
Third-party figures: Averages belong to Silver Bulletin (2026) and 538 (2018, 2022). House vote: Cook Political Report (2018) and published 2022 results.
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Generic ballot 11 days out and the final House vote” (CSV). Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
2026 midterm indicators, 11 days out
Headline indicators for the 2026 midterms as of Oct 23, 2026, with the same point in earlier cycles: generic ballot average, early ballots cast, their share of prior turnout, and the D−R margin among early voters.
Last updated .
Data table
| indicator | cycle | value | unit | as_of | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| generic_ballot_average | 2026 | 9 | D−R points | 2026-10-23 | Silver Bulletin generic ballot average, 11 days out |
| generic_ballot_average | 2018 | 8.2 | D−R points | 2018-10-26 | 538 generic ballot average, 11 days out |
| generic_ballot_average | 2022 | -0.6 | D−R points | 2022-10-28 | 538 generic ballot average, 11 days out |
| early_ballots | 2026 | 21654855 | ballots | 2026-10-23 | NBC News early-vote tracker |
| early_ballots | 2024 | 35546229 | ballots | 2024-10-25 | NBC News early-vote tracker, 2024, same point |
| early_ballots_share_of_prior_turnout | 2026 | 19.7 | percent of 2022 total turnout | 2026-10-23 | NBC News early-vote tracker; 2022 total ballots cast |
| early_ballots_share_of_prior_turnout | 2024 | 22.7 | percent of 2024 total turnout | 2024-10-25 | NBC News early-vote tracker; 2024 total ballots cast |
| early_ballots_vs_2024_same_point | 2026 | 61 | percent of 2024 count | 2026-10-23 | NBC News early-vote tracker, 2026 and 2024 |
| early_voters_dem_minus_rep | 2026 | 15 | D−R points | 2026-10-23 | NBC News / TargetSmart (party modelled in 21 states) |
| early_voters_dem_minus_rep | 2024 | 2 | D−R points | 2024-10-25 | NBC News / TargetSmart |
Columns
indicator- What is measured
cycle- Election year
value- Value; negative D−R values are Republican leads
unit- Unit of the value
as_of- Date of the figure (same point before Election Day)
source- Source of the figure
Caveats: Party is not vote choice. TargetSmart models party in 21 states holding 48% of 2026 early votes (Oct 23, 2026). 2022 polls understated Republicans: R+0.6 in the average at this point, R+2.7 in the House vote. The early-ballot share uses 2022 total turnout (109,979,856) and 2024 total turnout (156,766,239) as denominators.
Third-party figures: Generic ballot averages belong to Silver Bulletin and 538; early-vote counts and party splits come from the NBC News / TargetSmart tracker. Credit those sources when reusing their figures.
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “2026 midterm indicators, 11 days out” (CSV). Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds
2026 early ballots in ten Senate battleground states as of Oct 23, 2026, 11 days out, as a percentage of each state’s count at the same point in 2024 and 2022, with the party mix of 2026 early voters from the best available source per state.
Last updated .
Data table
| st | state | early_2026 | early_2024_same_point | early_2022_same_point | pace_vs_2024_pct | pace_vs_2022_pct | dem_pct | rep_pct | other_pct | dem_minus_rep | source_tag | party_source | party_as_of | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | Alaska | 26450 | 26995 | 24018 | 98 | 110.1 | 20 | 28 | 52 | -8 | reg. | NBC (state registration) | 2026-10-23 | 2026 count: NBC, 23 Oct; 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| KS | Kansas | 154074 | 174898 | 73262 | 88.1 | 210.3 | 47.7 | 39.1 | 13.2 | 8.6 | reg. | Kansas file via UF (registration), 23 Oct | 2026-10-23 | 2022 figure is a single NBC snapshot and could not be checked against the state. 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| TX | Texas | 2747668 | 3538890 | 2005435 | 77.6 | 137 | 34.7 | 31.3 | 34 | 3.4 | primary | TX SOS rosters, last primary, through 21 Oct | 2026-10-21 | Party mix not refreshed today (state file needs a browser download). 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| MI | Michigan | 986207 | 1431093 | 920125 | 68.9 | 107.2 | 54 | 37 | 9 | 17 | model | NBC/TargetSmart model | 2026-10-23 | 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| SC | South Carolina | 389672 | 575144 | 162794 | 67.8 | 239.4 | 47 | 45 | 8 | 2 | model | NBC/TargetSmart model | 2026-10-23 | 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| OH | Ohio | 922179 | 1398807 | 787440 | 65.9 | 117.1 | 33.3 | 27.4 | 39.4 | 5.9 | primary | Ohio SOS, last primary, as of 22 Oct | 2026-10-22 | Party mix not refreshed today (state file needs a browser download). 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| IA | Iowa | 207774 | 317952 | 197980 | 65.3 | 104.9 | 50.9 | 32 | 17.1 | 18.9 | reg. | Iowa SOS via UF (registration), 23 Oct | 2026-10-23 | 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| ME | Maine | 136096 | 216248 | 117673 | 62.9 | 115.7 | 52.1 | 20 | 27.9 | 32 | reg. | Maine SOS absentee file via UF (registration), file of 20 Oct | 2026-10-20 | 2026 count: NBC, 23 Oct; 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| NH | New Hampshire | 18908 | 37362 | 21089 | 50.6 | 89.7 | 42 | 30 | 28 | 12 | reg. | NBC (state registration) | 2026-10-23 | 2026 count: NBC, 23 Oct; 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
| MN | Minnesota | 419189 | 845698 | 282277 | 49.6 | 148.5 | 44 | 17 | 39 | 27 | model | NBC/TargetSmart model | 2026-10-23 | 2026 count: UF Election Lab (state data, 23 Oct); 2022 and 2024: NBC at the same point. |
Columns
st- State abbreviation
state- State
early_2026- 2026 early ballots, Oct 23, 2026
early_2024_same_point- 2024 early ballots at the same point (NBC News tracker)
early_2022_same_point- 2022 early ballots at the same point (NBC News tracker)
pace_vs_2024_pct- 2026 as % of 2024 at the same point, one decimal (the site shows whole numbers)
pace_vs_2022_pct- 2026 as % of 2022 at the same point
dem_pct- Democratic share of early voters, %
rep_pct- Republican share, %
other_pct- Other share, %
dem_minus_rep- D−R points; negative = Republican lead
source_tag- reg. = state registration; primary = party of last primary from state records; model = vendor estimate (TargetSmart, via NBC)
party_source- Where the party mix comes from
party_as_of- Date of the party figures
note- State-specific caveat
Caveats: Registered party is not vote choice. Michigan, Minnesota and South Carolina party figures are TargetSmart’s model. Ohio (Oct 22) and Texas (through Oct 21) party figures come from state files not refreshed on Oct 23; Maine’s from the state file of Oct 20. The Kansas 2022 figure is a single NBC snapshot that could not be checked against the state.
Third-party figures: Counts for 2022 and 2024, and party figures tagged model or from NBC, come from NBC News / TargetSmart. Credit those sources when reusing their figures.
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research. “Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds” (CSV). Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Data behind each chart
Every chart on the site has its data as a table under the chart and as a file here. Same licence: CC BY 4.0, with credit to Carmena’s Overton & Electoral Research.
| Chart | Files |
|---|---|
| Generic ballot 11 days out, against the final House vote | CSV JSON |
| 21.7M early ballots so far, against 2024 at the same point | CSV JSON |
| Early voters are D+15 this year. At the same point in 2024 they were D+2. | CSV JSON |
| Where the tracker’s party split is a model | CSV JSON |
| North Carolina: party of last primary against registration | CSV JSON |
| North Carolina unaffiliated early voters by last primary ballot | CSV JSON |
| North Carolina 2024: unaffiliated voters for President and for Governor | CSV JSON |
| How far the county method understated the Democratic early-vote margin | CSV JSON |
| Texas early voters: state records against the tracker | CSV JSON |
| Ohio early voters: state file against the tracker | CSV JSON |
| Texas 2026 early voters by vote history and party | CSV JSON |
| Share of counties that moved with the nation, within 4 points | CSV JSON |
| Correlation of county new-voter share with the presidential swing | CSV JSON |
| Where voter files are free, with no account or form | CSV JSON |
| Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds: 50% to 98% of 2024’s pace | CSV JSON |
Commercial use
In-depth data, custom polling and research are available for commercial use under licence. That includes more detailed versions of the data behind our posts, polling designed around your question, and longer analysis on a topic you choose. Everything we license is aggregated; we never sell records about individual voters.
Tell us what you need and we will reply by email.
Non-profits and researchers
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