Carmena’s OvertonSubscribe

Early in-person voters moved toward Democrats in all four states.

Open this figure in “Early in-person voting moved toward Democrats in four states”

Real data · Oct 26, 2026

Early in-person voters moved toward Democrats in all four states.

Florida: 2026 R+7.1 · 2022 R+23.7

R+20EvenD+20FloridaR+7.1KansasD+0.4IowaD+18.3North CarolinaD+16.8
  • 2026 early voters
  • 2022, same point

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Registered party, not vote choice. Each state is compared at the same number of days before Election Day in both years.

Data table
Early in-person voters moved toward Democrats in all four states.
State20222026Days before Election Day
FloridaR+23.7R+7.19
KansasR+14.9D+0.48
IowaD+5.4D+18.311
North CarolinaD+5.7D+16.811

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