Counting mail and in-person ballots together, the shift is smaller and Iowa moved the other way.
Open this figure in “Early in-person voting moved toward Democrats in four states”
Real data · Oct 26, 2026
Counting mail and in-person ballots together, the shift is smaller and Iowa moved the other way.Florida: 2026 D+0.2 · 2022 R+3.6
- 2026 early voters
- 2022, same point
Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Registered party, not vote choice. Mail and in-person early ballots combined.
Data table
| State | 2022 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Florida | R+3.6 | D+0.2 |
| Kansas | R+4.2 | D+3.7 |
| Iowa | D+23.3 | D+17.5 |
| North Carolina | D+7.0 | D+17.0 |
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