Nearly half of the ‘party’ in early-vote trackers is a model
In 21 states, NBC’s party split is modelled by TargetSmart. Those states hold 48% of this year’s early votes.
The 2026 midterms, 11 days out
Our first public benchmark. Everything on this page is real data collected Oct 22–23, 2026, except the forecast, which is not yet published and is shown as a placeholder.
Last updated Oct 23, 2026. Election Day is Nov 3, 2026.
Real data · Oct 23, 2026
Of every 100 early voters, by party
Source: NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026; 2024 at the same point (Oct 25, 2024). Caveat: TargetSmart models party in 21 states, and party is not vote choice. Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020. Why that matters
Data table
| Party | 2026 | 2024, same point |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 49 | 42 |
| Republicans | 34 | 40 |
| Other | 17 | 18 |
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
What this shows
Of every 100 people who have voted early so far, 49 are Democrats, 34 are Republicans and 17 are neither, by NBC News and TargetSmart’s count. At the same point in 2024 it was 42, 40 and 18. The Democratic lead among early voters grew from 2 points to 15.
What it doesn’t show
It is not a vote count. Registered party is not vote choice, and Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020, so early voters lean more Democratic than the final electorate will. At the same point in 2022, early voters were D+12, and Republicans won the House vote that year.
In 21 states, which hold 48% of early votes, the party label is TargetSmart’s model rather than a state record.
Real data · Oct 23, 2026
Early voters are D+15 this year. At the same point in 2024 they were D+2.
Source: NBC News / TargetSmart national early-vote tracker, Oct 23, 2026; 2024 at the same point (Oct 25, 2024). Caveat: TargetSmart models party in 21 states, and party is not vote choice. Democrats have voted early in larger numbers since 2020. How to read it: the solid bar is 2026; the outline is 2024 at the same point. Values read “2026 (2024)”.
Real data · Oct 23, 2026
Generic ballot 11 days out, against the final House voteSource: Silver Bulletin average (2026); 538 average (2018, 2022). Caveat: 2022 polls understated Republicans: R+0.6 in the average, R+2.7 in the House vote.
Data table
| Year | Average, 11 days out | Final House vote |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | D+9 | – |
| 2018 | D+8.2 | D+8.6 |
| 2022 | R+0.6 | R+2.7 |
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
Generic ballot
What this shows
Asked which party they would vote for in their House race, poll respondents favour Democrats by 9.0 points on the Silver Bulletin average, 11 days out. At the same point in 2018, 538’s average was D+8.2, and Democrats won the House vote by 8.6. In 2022 it was R+0.6, and Republicans won by 2.7.
What it doesn’t show
It is not a seat count, and it can miss. In 2022 polls understated Republicans by about 2 points from this point on.
Real data · Oct 23, 2026
21.7M early ballots so far, against 2024 at the same pointSource: State early-vote reports at 11 days out; total turnout 2022 and 2024. Caveat: The 2026 share is of 2022’s total turnout; the 2024 share is of 2024’s. Raw ballots are at 61% of 2024’s pace, a presidential year.
Data table
| Measure | 2026 | 2024, same point |
|---|---|---|
| Early ballots cast (millions) | 21.7 | – |
| Share of total turnout, % (2026 against 2022; 2024 against 2024) | 19.7 | 22.7 |
| Raw early ballots, 2024 = 100 | 61 | 100 |
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
Early ballots
What this shows
Americans have cast 21.7 million early ballots. That equals 19.7% of everyone who voted in 2022. At the same point in 2024, early ballots were 22.7% of that year’s turnout.
What it doesn’t show
It is not a turnout forecast. Raw ballots are at 61% of 2024’s count, but 2024 was a presidential year with about 47 million more voters.
Our House and Senate forecast
Not yet published. We will publish it before Election Day and score it against the result afterwards. Until then the numbers below are placeholders, there to show how the forecast will read. They are not a prediction.
Placeholder · forecast not yet published
House: Democratic seats, median and rangeChance of a Democratic majority: 74 in 100 (placeholder).
Placeholder · forecast not yet published
Senate: Democratic seats, median and rangeChance Republicans keep control: 66 in 100 (placeholder).
Senate battlegrounds
Real data · Oct 23, 2026
Early voting in ten Senate battlegrounds| State | Early ballots against 2024 (line = 2024 pace) | D−R of early voters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 98% | R+8 | reg. |
| Kansas | 88% | D+8.6 | reg. |
| Texas | 78% | D+3.4 | primary |
| Michigan | 69% | D+17 | model |
| South Carolina | 68% | D+2 | model |
| Ohio | 66% | D+5.9 | primary |
| Iowa | 65% | D+18.9 | reg. |
| Maine | 63% | D+32 | reg. |
| New Hampshire | 51% | D+12 | reg. |
| Minnesota | 50% | D+27 | model |
Source: State early-vote data via UF Election Lab and NBC News, Oct 23, 2026, against NBC at the same point in 2024. Party mix: state registration files (reg.), party of last primary from state records (primary; Ohio as of Oct 22, Texas through Oct 21), or vendor estimate, TargetSmart via NBC (model). 2024 was a presidential year, so every state is below its 2024 count. Party mix is not vote choice. Source tags: reg. = state registration file; primary = party of last primary from state records; model = vendor estimate (TargetSmart, via NBC).
Download CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit
What this shows
How fast each of ten Senate battleground states is voting early against 2024 at the same point, and the party mix of those early voters from the best source each state allows. None is ahead of its 2024 pace: Alaska is closest at 98% and Minnesota furthest behind at 50%. Against 2022, the last midterm, nine of the ten are ahead. Early voters lean Democratic in nine of the ten.
What it doesn’t show
Who is winning. A D+19 early electorate in Iowa is a registration count, not a vote margin, and the three model-tagged states (Michigan, Minnesota, South Carolina) carry the most uncertainty. Ohio and Texas party figures come from state files of Oct 22 and through Oct 21, which were not refreshed on Oct 23.
Source tags: reg. = state registration file; primary = party of last primary from state records; model = vendor estimate (TargetSmart, via NBC).
Midterm research
Posts on the early vote, party data, polls, voter blocks and bellwethers. Post dates other than Oct 23, 2026 are illustrative.
Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9 points, ahead of 2018’s wave
The Silver Bulletin average is D+9.0 at 11 days out. At the same point, 2018 stood at D+8.2 and 2022 at R+0.6.
Democrats’ early-vote edge grew from 2 points to 15
Early voters so far are D 49, R 34, Other 17. At this point in 2024 they were D 42, R 40, Other 18.
One in five of 2022’s voters have already voted
21.7M early ballots equal 19.7% of 2022’s total turnout. At the same point in 2024 the figure was 22.7%.
Senate battlegrounds are voting early at 50–98% of their 2024 pace
None of the ten states is ahead of 2024, a presidential year. Against 2022, the last midterm, nine of the ten are ahead.
Texas Democrats are bringing new voters; Republicans are bringing regulars
8% of Democratic early voters in Texas are new, against 4% of Republicans. 84% of Republicans voted in both 2022 and 2024.
Post dates other than Oct 23, 2026 are illustrative. All posts
Methodology
- Same point
- “11 days out” is Oct 23, 2026. We compare with the same point in earlier cycles: Oct 25, 2024 and Oct 28, 2022.
- Party data
- We report party from state records wherever they exist and tag every figure: reg. for registration files, primary for primary history, model for vendor estimates.
- Sources
- Every chart names its source in one line. Caveats that change the reading travel with every copy of a chart.
- Scoring
- We publish each forecast, with its range, before the result. After the result we publish how it did, against its own range. Full methodology