Unaffiliated early ballots grew fastest across the six states
Open this figure in “Unaffiliated early voting is up 70%. Here is the state-by-state picture.”
Real data · Nov 3, 2026
Unaffiliated early ballots grew fastest across the six statesUnaffiliated / other: 2,456,936 early ballots in 2022; 4,186,006 in 2026, up 70.4%.
Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH.
Data table
| Party group | 2022 early ballots | 2026 early ballots | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unaffiliated / other | 2456936 | 4186006 | 70.4 |
| Democratic | 4181642 | 5627430 | 34.6 |
| Republican | 4466946 | 5474141 | 22.5 |
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