Unaffiliated early voting is up 70%. Here is the state-by-state picture.

Across the six states in our county comparison, unaffiliated early ballots increased from about 2.46 million in 2022 to 4.19 million in 2026. That is a 70% increase. Democratic early ballots rose 35%, from 4.18 million to 5.63 million, while Republican ballots rose 23%, from 4.47 million to 5.47 million.

Those states are Texas, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa. We compare each with the same number of days left before Election Day in 2022. We start with each state’s county bubble chart, then break down the combined growth and voting-history figures. The six additional statewide comparisons follow.

How to read a county dot

Each dot represents a county. Bigger dots represent more early ballots. A dot to the left means occasional voters have a smaller share of that county’s early electorate than in 2022. A dot to the right means their share has increased.

Here, occasional voters voted in zero or one of the preceding four general elections; consistent voters voted in two to four. Each chart compares changes in these groups’ shares, not candidate choices.

Height describes a different comparison. Above the horizontal zero line, the Democratic-minus-Republican share improved from 2022. Below it, the Republican group gained relative to the Democratic group. These are percentage-point changes in the makeup of early voters. They do not tell us which candidates received their votes.

Blue dots mark Democratic gains and red dots Republican gains. Grey dots identify counties where the increase in the unaffiliated share was larger than the change in the Democratic-Republican gap. The grey horizontal band represents the statewide increase in the unaffiliated share.

A tight cluster means counties had similar changes on these measures. A wide spread means their experiences differed. To describe an urban-rural divide, we also need to identify which counties are urban and rural; the dot spacing alone does not provide that classification. Some extreme changes are drawn at the plot edges to keep the scales readable.

Texas

Texas has the largest unaffiliated growth of the six states, at 89.8%. Among consistent unaffiliated voters, the increase is 174.0%: about 274 early ballots now for every 100 in the 2022 comparison. Democratic growth also exceeds Republican growth, 41.3% against 20.6%.

Republicans still lead the tracked party-group count. Their advantage narrowed from 9.8 percentage points to 2.9. That is a 6.9-point improvement for Democrats, measured as a share of all tracked early ballots.

The county picture is mixed. Democrats improved their relative margin in 127 of the 253 plotted counties, about half. The largest counties had larger Democratic improvements: Harris by 8.6 points, Dallas by 6.5 and Tarrant by 11.0. All three also had a small increase in the occasional-voter share, while the statewide share edged down from 17.1% to 16.7%. Counties differ in size, so counting counties and counting ballots can produce quite different impressions.

North Carolina

Unaffiliated ballots rose 51.2%, Democratic ballots 29.7% and Republican ballots 9.3%. The Democratic lead in the tracked early-voter groups increased from 6.8 points to 11.7.

The occasional-voter share fell from 17.1% to 13.4%. Their ballot count was almost unchanged, up just 1.6%, while the rest of the early electorate grew faster. Among consistent voters, unaffiliated ballots increased 57.0%, Democratic ballots 33.9% and Republican ballots 18.2%.

The decline in the occasional share reached 95 of 100 counties. Wake County’s share fell 4.7 points and Mecklenburg’s 2.3. Both counties also improved the Democratic relative margin, by 3.7 and 8.5 points respectively. The movement toward consistent voters was widespread; the party-margin changes were less uniform, with Democratic improvements in 58 counties.

Kansas

Kansas’s unaffiliated early ballots rose 87.5%, compared with 33.5% for Democrats and 16.6% for Republicans. Republicans retained a lead in this tracked count, but it narrowed from 10.8 points to 4.6.

Occasional voters’ share fell from 12.5% to 10.2%, even though their ballot count increased 7.6%. Consistent unaffiliated ballots rose 91.3%; the corresponding Democratic and Republican increases were 39.0% and 21.0%.

Johnson and Sedgwick, the two largest counties in this snapshot, improved the Democratic relative margin by 8.9 and 8.2 points. Their occasional-voter shares declined. Across the 100 counties with enough ballots for a dot in both years, 86 had a smaller occasional share and 54 improved the Democratic margin. Smaller counties outside that plotting threshold still contribute their available records to the statewide sums.

Kansas uses November 2, 2026 versus November 7, 2022, one day before each election. The other five county panels use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, two days before each election.

Michigan

Michigan combines strong unaffiliated growth with faster Republican growth than Democratic growth. Unaffiliated ballots increased 66.4%, Republican ballots 50.1% and Democratic ballots 41.4%.

The modelled Democratic lead of 1.2 points in the 2022 comparison became a Republican lead of 1.0 point. Republican relative gains appeared in 75 of the 83 counties. Wayne, Oakland and Macomb all moved in that direction, by about 3.0, 1.0 and 2.3 points respectively.

Michigan also had the largest decline in the occasional-voter share, from 16.1% to 9.9%. Every county had a decline. Here, the occasional ballot count fell as well, by 7.1%. Consistent unaffiliated ballots more than doubled, rising 116.5%, alongside increases of 57.5% for consistent Republicans and 45.1% for consistent Democrats.

Michigan’s party labels are modelled, so these comparisons depend on the source’s classification as well as who voted early.

Ohio