Early voters lean further toward Democrats than at the same point in 2022 and 2024.
Open this figure in “Democrats are front-loading their reliable voters”
Real data · Oct 27, 2026
Early voters lean further toward Democrats than at the same point in 2022 and 2024.Democrats lead in North Carolina and Kansas; Florida is nearly even.
Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Same days before Election Day in every year: North Carolina and Florida 8; Kansas 7. Registered party, not candidate choice.
Data table
| State | Year | Party margin | Days before Election Day | Matched counties | democrats | republicans | other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 2022 | D+7.3 | 8 | 100 | 490365 | 397931 | 374943 |
| North Carolina | 2024 | R+1.1 | 8 | 100 | 1034083 | 1067085 | 1028131 |
| North Carolina | 2026 | D+16.1 | 8 | 100 | 708130 | 425956 | 613362 |
| Kansas | 2022 | R+4.4 | 7 | 103 | 68112 | 75386 | 20211 |
| Kansas | 2024 | R+14.4 | 7 | 103 | 116618 | 165583 | 56717 |
| Kansas | 2026 | D+1.5 | 7 | 103 | 99664 | 96052 | 40681 |
| Florida | 2022 | R+4.6 | 8 | 67 | 1152344 | 1293013 | 587774 |
| Florida | 2024 | R+11.5 | 8 | 67 | 1716876 | 2305396 | 1088361 |
| Florida | 2026 | R+0.5 | 8 | 67 | 1236614 | 1252610 | 649839 |
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