Democrats are front-loading their reliable voters

Democrats are front-loading their reliable voters. In North Carolina, more than half have already voted. Only about a third of reliable Republicans have. Democrats have those ballots counted, but they have also used up more of the voters who usually show up.

“Reliable” means someone who voted in all four preceding general elections. Eight days before Election Day, North Carolina’s reliable Republicans are voting early at almost exactly their 2022 rate. Democrats are well ahead of theirs. Much of the Republican group is still waiting; most of the Democratic group has already voted.

Kansas Republicans are voting earlier too. Democrats have sped up more. In Florida, the parties are going in opposite directions: reliable Democrats are voting early at a higher rate than in the last midterm, reliable Republicans at a lower one.

Democrats are ahead of where they were

North Carolina’s Democratic lead among early voters is more than twice what it was at this point in 2022. At the same point in 2024, Republicans were narrowly ahead.

Kansas had Republican early-voter leads in both previous elections. This year Democrats lead. Florida has gone from Republican leads to nearly even. These are mail and in-person ballots, compared at the same number of days before Election Day.

Those are votes Democrats wanted to get, and they have them. The trouble comes when you assume the voters still to come will look like the ones who have already voted. Republicans have a larger share of their dependable voters left. They can make up ground by getting those people out.

Florida is a useful reminder that a turnout rate and a ballot count answer different questions. Democrats have used up more of their reliable voters as a share of their own party. Republicans still narrowly lead the overall count. You can turn out more of your voters, proportionally, and still cast fewer ballots.

The Democrats arriving earlier are the ones who usually vote

In North Carolina, Democrats who voted in every recent general election have increased their early turnout the most. Democrats who skipped some elections are also voting earlier, but their increases are smaller.

That gives Democrats a reason to be careful about reading the early numbers as a surge in final turnout. The biggest change in participation rate is among people with a long voting record. They are arriving earlier. We do not yet know how many more Democrats will vote by the time the election ends.

Republicans have voters left. They need them to show up.

Getting a vote early has a practical benefit. That person cannot get busy on Election Day and forget to vote. Democrats can spend the remaining days reaching people who have not voted yet.

Republicans have more of their dependable electorate left to turn out, as a share of their party. A past vote is no guarantee of another one. And these records compare groups across elections; they cannot tell us which individual Democrats moved a vote from Election Day.

North Carolina’s Republicans are still waiting on most of their regular voters. Democrats have already heard from most of theirs. Republicans need those remaining voters to close the participation gap.