A repeat of 2022’s late shift would still leave a less Republican early electorate.
Open this figure in “Kansas early voters went from R+3 in 2022 to D+5 this year”
Real data · Oct 26, 2026
A repeat of 2022’s late shift would still leave a less Republican early electorate.8 days out: 2026 D+5.2 · 2022 R+3.4 · 2024 R+14.7
- 2026
- 2022
- 2024
- Dotted: repeat the remaining 2022 shift; not a forecast
Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark. Caveat: Dotted line: this year’s margin plus 2022’s late shift. An illustration, not a forecast.
Data table
| Days before Election Day | 2026 margin | 2022 margin | 2024 margin | 2026 early votes | 2022 early votes | 2024 early votes | Hypothetical 2026 early margin if the remaining 2022 shift repeats | 2022 registration-margin change from eight days out to day zero |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | D+15.3 | R+6.2 | R+10.5 | 55321 | 27226 | 64405 | – | – |
| 13 | D+11.3 | R+6.8 | R+11.6 | 90993 | 48642 | 116397 | – | – |
| 12 | D+8.4 | R+4.6 | R+12.9 | 122041 | 73310 | 166102 | – | – |
| 11 | D+6.3 | R+2.6 | R+12.9 | 153737 | 92478 | 166102 | – | – |
| 10 | D+6.3 | R+2.6 | R+12.9 | 153737 | 92478 | 166102 | – | – |
| 9 | D+6.3 | R+2.6 | R+12.9 | 153737 | 92478 | 166102 | – | – |
| 8 | D+5.2 | R+3.4 | R+14.7 | 203818 | 135670 | 301864 | – | – |
| 7 | – | R+3.6 | R+14.6 | – | 167488 | 339992 | – | – |
| 6 | – | R+6.1 | R+15.3 | – | 205717 | 391768 | – | – |
| 5 | – | R+8 | R+16.7 | – | 244731 | 453168 | – | – |
| 4 | – | R+9.4 | R+17.7 | – | 282475 | 516864 | – | – |
| 3 | – | R+10.8 | R+18.3 | – | 324222 | 576697 | – | – |
| 2 | – | R+10.8 | R+18.3 | – | 324222 | 576697 | – | – |
| 1 | – | R+10.7 | R+18.1 | – | 352868 | 653157 | – | – |
| 0 | – | R+11.8 | R+18.5 | – | 387668 | 694959 | R+3.1 | −8.326400354186617 |
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