Carmena’s OvertonSubscribe

Rural early voters remain heavily Republican. Urban and suburban voters are arriving faster.

Open this figure in “Kansas early voters went from R+3 in 2022 to D+5 this year”

Real data · Oct 26, 2026

Rural early voters remain heavily Republican. Urban and suburban voters are arriving faster.

Urban and suburban counties: about 13% of registered voters have voted early, against 9% at this point in 2022

Early votes as a share of registrationUrban / suburban9%13%Mostly rural5%6%Fully rural5%6%Registered-party margin among early votersUrban / suburbanD+3.8D+12.1Mostly ruralR+26.9R+19.4Fully ruralR+31.7R+30.6
  • 2022 at the same point
  • 2026, eight days out

Source: Carmena’s Overton; early votes via ColdSpark, county types via L2. Caveat: County type by rural share: under 50% urban/suburban, 50–99% mostly rural, 100% fully rural.

Data table
Rural early voters remain heavily Republican. Urban and suburban voters are arriving faster.
County type2026 turnout so far2022 turnout at this point2026 margin2022 marginCounties2026 early votes2022 early votes2022 registered voters2026 registered voters
Urban and suburban13.3%8.9%D+12.1D+3.81116687310653811917281257709
Mostly rural6.2%5%R+19.4R+26.9231498711637232733242803
Fully rural5.8%4.6%R+30.6R+31.7682195817187372146380096

Share figureDownload CSV JSON CC BY 4.0, free to use with credit

Read the article

Shared figure