Occasional voters have a smaller share of early ballots
Open this figure in “Unaffiliated early voting is up 70%. Here is the state-by-state picture.”
Real data · Nov 3, 2026
Occasional voters have a smaller share of early ballotsAll six states: occasional voters’ share fell from 16.1% to 14.0%, a change of -2.2 percentage points.
Source: Carmena’s Overton analysis. Early votes by group via ColdSpark. Caveat: Frozen November 3 graphic; Iowa through November 1. These are party groups, not candidate votes. Consistent voters voted in two to four preceding generals; occasional voters in zero or one. County comparisons use November 1, 2026 versus November 6, 2022, except Kansas: November 2 versus November 7. Party is registration in NC, KS and IA, modelled in TX and MI, and last-primary participation in OH.
Data table
| State | 2022 occasional share (%) | 2026 occasional share (%) | Change (points) | 2022 occasional ballots | 2026 occasional ballots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All six states | 16.1 | 14.0 | -2.2 | 1789225 | 2133771 |
| Texas | 17.1 | 16.7 | -0.4 | 932180 | 1260071 |
| North Carolina | 17.1 | 13.4 | -3.7 | 366060 | 372093 |
| Kansas | 12.5 | 10.2 | -2.3 | 43863 | 47214 |
| Michigan | 16.1 | 9.9 | -6.2 | 245573 | 228223 |
| Ohio | 13.1 | 10.7 | -2.4 | 169634 | 184361 |
| Iowa | 9.3 | 9.1 | -0.2 | 31915 | 41809 |
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