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Research: bellwethers

1 post on bellwethers, newest first.

Showing 1 of 15 posts. Post dates other than Oct 23, 2026 are illustrative.

  1. Bellwethers

    Bellwether counties barely exist in midterms

    Only 13–16% of counties moved with the nation, within 4 points, in most House midterms. A perfect record adds 0–4 points of edge.

    Source: County-level U.S. House results 2002–2022 built from MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Election Data Archive and OpenElections returns; national House popular vote. County House results mix contested and uncontested races; the contested-only sample changes pass rates by 0–5 points.