Research: voter blocks
4 posts on voter blocks, newest first.
Showing 4 of 15 posts. Post dates other than Oct 23, 2026 are illustrative.
Texas Democrats are bringing new voters; Republicans are bringing regulars
8% of Democratic early voters in Texas are new, against 4% of Republicans. 84% of Republicans voted in both 2022 and 2024.
Source: NBC News / TargetSmart Texas early-vote page, vote history by party, Oct 23, 2026 (party modelled by TargetSmart in Texas). Party here is TargetSmart’s model, not a state record. Nationally, 80% of early voters voted in both 2022 and 2024.
North Carolina’s unaffiliated primary voters lean Democratic, 61–39
Of unaffiliated early voters with a primary history, 160K last took a Democratic ballot and 102K a Republican one.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections 2026 absentee and early-vote file joined to the statewide voter history file. A primary ballot is not a general-election vote, and 30% of unaffiliated early voters have no primary history at all.
Unaffiliated voters don’t split the same way twice
In North Carolina in 2024, unaffiliated voters were about 47% Democratic for President and about 77% for Governor.
Source: North Carolina 2024 turnout by registered party (State Board of Elections voter history) and certified 2024 results; exit poll and AP VoteCast for comparison. Estimated from totals, assuming every registered Democrat voted Democratic and every registered Republican voted Republican.
New voters pulled counties toward Biden in 2020, and did nothing in 2024
County shares of new voters tracked the presidential swing at 0.42 in North Carolina and 0.50 in Ohio in 2020. In 2024 the link was about zero.
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections voter history and registration files; Ohio Secretary of State statewide voter file; county presidential results 2016–2024. New unaffiliated voters in North Carolina correlated at 0.71 in 2020. Correlations across counties do not show how individual new voters voted.