Kansas early voters went from R+3 in 2022 to D+5 this year

Registered Democrats have cast more early ballots than registered Republicans in Kansas. Eight days before Election Day, they lead by D+5.2.

Republicans were ahead at the same point in both 2022 and 2024. In the last midterm, their lead was about R+3.

Johnson County, where Democrats have overtaken Republicans among early voters, accounts for much of the statewide change.

A close Senate race

Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee for Senate, needs Republican votes to win, and he says so.

“I’ll only get elected with Republicans voting for me,” the pastor told ABC News this month.¹

Johnson and Sedgwick

Johnson County, Kansas City’s suburbs on the Kansas side of the state line, casts about a quarter of the state’s ballots. Its residents vote early more than most Kansans, so it has supplied about 45% of this year’s early count. The Democrats’ nominees for Senate and governor are both based there. Hamilton founded the Church of the Resurrection in Leawood,¹ and Cindy Holscher, the nominee for governor, represents Overland Park in the state Senate.²

At this stage of the last midterm, Johnson’s early voters leaned Republican by about R+3 points. This year they lean Democratic by about D+10.

Sedgwick, the second-largest county, is moving slightly the other way. Its early voters, around Wichita, lean Democratic by about D+6, down from D+8 at this stage in 2022. Sedgwick cast about one in six ballots in 2024 but has supplied only about 11% of this year’s early ones, so its shift counts for less in the early tally than it may in the final count.

Elsewhere the movement runs toward Democrats. Riley, home to Kansas State University, has gone from a Republican early-voter lead to a Democratic one, and across the remaining covered counties the Republican lead has narrowed to R+2.5.

Reliable voters

Most of this year’s early voters have voted many times before. About three in four cast ballots in each of the last four general elections. At this point in 2022, those reliable voters leaned Republican, at R+9.6. This year they lean Democratic, at D+2.9.

Early voters with no recorded vote in any of the last four general elections lean much further toward Democrats, at D+24.9. They make up about 3% of the early count, so they add little to the statewide lead.

Roger Marshall and rural Kansas

“What I see across the state is Republicans coming home,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R), whom Hamilton is challenging, told ABC News.¹

In fully rural counties, early voters lean about as Republican as they did four years ago. Their participation has been slower than in the cities and suburbs: about 6% of registered voters have voted early, against about 13% in urban and suburban counties.

Around Wichita, Sedgwick voters have made different choices across the same ballot. They helped reelect Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly and Republican Sen. Jerry Moran in 2022. Together, Johnson and Sedgwick supplied more than two in five of Kansas’s ballots in the last presidential election. Candidates seeking support across party lines have a substantial share of the statewide electorate to contest in those counties.

The remaining vote

Most Kansans have yet to vote. In the last midterm, about 4 in 10 ballots were cast early, by mail or in person; the rest came on Election Day. The early share has been higher in presidential years, reaching about half in 2024.

This year, Kansans had cast about half again as many early ballots by eight days out as at the same point in 2022. If total turnout ends near 2022’s, early voters will make up a larger share of the final count than they did then.

Democrats have gained most in the cities and suburbs, where both their statewide nominees are based.

The Democratic lead has already shrunk from about D+15 two weeks before Election Day to about D+5 now. Republicans gained late in 2022, as more people voted in person.

A late swing as large as 2022’s would still leave this year’s early electorate far less Republican than in 2022 or 2024.

Beyond the party label

Every count in this article is of registered parties, and Kansans do not always vote with theirs. In Johnson, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats among 2024 voters by R+10.4. Harris won the county by D+8.5.

Brent Smith, a Lenexa voter, described his own split ticket to the Kansas Reflector in 2024. The fiscally conservative independent said he had voted for Harris for president and Republicans for Congress and the Legislature.^3,4 Hamilton is asking Republicans to split their tickets the other way in the Senate race.¹